Historian and Rancher
Joined March 2020
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6 Feb 2021
Much of my work is more "military" than strategic and thus requires tactical and operational analysis before one can consider the theater level & finally grand strategy. But the technical level also counts, for which I must rely on experts: youtube.com/watch?v=zKFgFq0i…
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Just before the 2003 invasion of Iraq I testified before the Sen Foreign Rel Comm w Biden in the chair: do not invade Iraq--only Iran will benefit . Re Afghanistan : ignore foolish Petraeus who promises an Afghan army--it will never fight the Talibs. But opening Hormuz is dff
We recently fought two unnecessary decades-long wars of occupation. The invasion of Iraq was sold to Americans with falsehoods and exaggerations. Thousands of American and our allies' servicemembers died for no strategic gain in Afghanistan. Many of our current problems are a result of not sufficiently valuing the lives of American servicemembers, particularly the enlisted infantrymen who bear the heaviest burden of our wars.
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Jun 12
Iran's great enemy is "Amerika" whose allies it attacks. The only ally who can strike back is Israel. As for "boys dying for Israel" , the latter is the only US ally which does not ask for or want US troops, which all others ask for.
It's an absolute disgrace that most Americans don't want their boys to die for Israel.
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Jun 12
The USA has joined the ranks of the world's post-heroic countries that cannot tolerate even a few casualties to defend even major interests. 82nd troops & Marines in place w ample air support to cut risks did not occupy the Gulf islands to keep the seaways open. WH said no
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Jun 10
The new Japanese Intelligence org cannot succeed just by analysing facts, because human behavior is governed by subjective interpretations of those facts. It should recruit former expatriates as well as diplomats, but security will say no, as in the CIA, with sad results.
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Jun 10
Intelligence must predict adversarial actions and reactions. Hence it is not just the facts that matter but foreigner's interpretations of those facts. Intel analysts should therefore be former expatriates. But the opposite is true. Even overseas they remain in the diplo bubble
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Jun 10
it is hard to provide good foreign intelligence for policy-makers. It requires not just facts, but also foreigners' views of those facts--the subjective views that govern their actions. Hence Intel outfits should be run by former expatriates--but security keeps them out. ,
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Jun 10
Several countries tried to emulate the NSC model of unified policy-making but failed, because their foreign and defense ministries would not share policy-making. Abe pulled it off with his NSS and now Takaichi is adding the missing piece: unified intelligence. A huge challenge.
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Jun 10
after her convincing electoral victory,Takaichi Sanae,is set to be a strong leader like Abe Shinzo, who pushed back Chinese intrusions and successfully established a unified policy-making apparatus. Takaichi is adding the missing piece: unified Intelligence.
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Jun 9
In the White House perfectly nice chaps assert that Iran's dictators are no threat to the US, only to Israel. Re the attacks on Arab allies of the US, they point out that Iran must attack the allies of the US now that it attacks Iran. Ie. Iran is innocent, only Israel is guilty.
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Jun 9
how many members are hoping that the amply murderous and would-be genocidal Tehran fanatics win this bout of fighting with the US, for whose "death" they have been praying for every day since 1979 ? Many certainly speak & vote to that effect, without reprimand from Dem leaders.
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Jun 9
in Lugano's center there is a beautiful public garden facing the lake with a smooth lawn ideal for all from babies and the elderly. I see several enjoying the mild sunshine but nobody under 50. In the heart of town a Muslim is beating his forehead on a small prayer carpet.
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Jun 9
Trump did not bother to read out even a 3-line statement to explain his before resuming the bombing of Iran. Then he stopped . He also refused to deploy the troops sent to Qatar onto the Persian Gulf islets to preclude small-boat mining . With no leader in Tehran talks are futile
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Jun 9
am now told that Joseph Kahn of NYT is criticized by some of his employees as "pro-Israeli". I must now imagine how those three headlines would read if he were sufficiently anti-Israeli to satisfy them. 1: Israel poisons Joint Staff, 2: Israelis massacre Lebanese soldiers and 3: eat Palestinian infants
Jun 7
Joseph Kahn editor of the NYTimes today offers 3 headlines: "Pentagon sees growing espionage threat from Israel" . "Israeli strike kills 3 Lebanese soldiers days after truce was signed", "Infant killed as Israeli military fires on car". Q1: which of 23,000 employees "sees" the threat Q2: Hizbollah violated the truce minutes not days Q3 Israelis have anti-infant missiles ?
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Jun 7
when I forecast (Foreign Affairs 1994) a forthcoming post-heroic era in which US power would be nullified by a President's refusal to risk even a few casualties, it was thinking of some nation-building" idiocy not the upkeep of the US position in the world by securing the Gulf
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Jun 7
Joseph Khan editor of the new york times evidently despises the newspaper of record of yesteryear. His role, as he sees it, is to demolish the US Israel alliance: just look at the three June 7 headlines: the top 3 are one-sided attacks on Israel incl the absurd "Pentagon sees"
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Jun 7
Joseph Kahn editor of the NYTimes today offers 3 headlines: "Pentagon sees growing espionage threat from Israel" . "Israeli strike kills 3 Lebanese soldiers days after truce was signed", "Infant killed as Israeli military fires on car". Q1: which of 23,000 employees "sees" the threat Q2: Hizbollah violated the truce minutes not days Q3 Israelis have anti-infant missiles ?
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Jun 6
American media cite Iranian experts with official ties as if they were pragmatic, whereas they adhere to an ideology which promises a happy end to history when the Twelth Imam-- in hiding since 840 -chooses to return. It also deems martyrdom as the best career choice.
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Jun 1
The always Israel-skeptical Economist & mixed lefties are prattling about reviving Der Yidisher Arbeter-Bund, the Jewish-Marxist very anti-Zionist movement which opposed emigration & therefore died in the holocaust. No need of it : if so inclined, just jump from a bridge.
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Jun 1
one Tal Shalev, instant strategic expert: "Emerging Iran deal risks shattering Netanyahu’s legacy" ie. use strongest possible language "shatter" to turn an important Osirak type victory into an invented defeat Before: Iran 2 months from bomb. Now 2/3 years if Israel does nothing
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May 31
Trump's enemies in the US strenuously hope that Iran's oppressors and executioners emerge from this war as the perceived winners by asserting control of the Gulf.
US had the troops ready in Qatar to preclude Iran expedient mining by operating from the Gulf islands but ....
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