🌎⚔️ THE @Osint613 MID-EAST ROUNDTABLE LIVE AND EXCLUSIVE ON @X EVERY SUNDAY 20:30 (GMT 3) 13:30 (ET)

🔴✍️ THE ILLUSION OF REGIME CHANGE | 𝘐𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘊𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘓𝘦𝘣𝘢𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘔𝘰𝘥𝘦𝘭 𝘐𝘯 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯? A Middle Eastern country which was once great, until an Islamic organisation took power. Both Iran and Lebanon share a similar tragic story.. In Lebanon, Hezbollah operates within the state, deeply entrenched within the military and government: A None-State Actor. In Iran, by contrast, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the state. It does not hide behind institutions - it owns them. The infrastructure, the economy, the military, the political system: Every lever of power ultimately leads back to the IRGC. A state-Actor. So what if the “regime change” we’ve been talking about… is already happening? 👇 Trump dropped a bombshell today by saying he is negotiating with Iran. But he doesn’t negotiate the IRGC, nor the Ayatollah.. He is negotiating with a “reformed”cardboard-government which is only in place to deceive the west regarding the real intentions of the IRGC: To destroy America and Israel and reak havoc on the entire Middle East. This is regime change. Just not the kind anyone hoped for. The reason why the terror problem in Lebanon isn’t solved, is because we’re dealing with a weak government which is trying to portray a good relationship with the west, while having a messianic Shia terror organisation going to war with its neighbours. Now imagine that model - replicated in Iran. The result is a paradox: a country that appears sovereign on paper, yet is runned by an armed terror army which is not bound to any laws of the country. The IRGC becoming a none-state actor, while actually remaining a state-actor. It will create a regime free of sanctions, flooded with capital to invest in terror, while having direct access to Israel, America and the region.

🔴 HOW IS IRAN STILL LAUNCHING? After the 12-Days War, I warned about the IRGC mobilisation of missile launchers into mountain terrains to avoid destruction of those launchers from the air. One of those locations is Yazd. The IRGC has a ballistic missiles launching base. Yesterday, we saw the footage of a long-range ballistic ground-to-ground missile launch that failed and crashed to the ground. from that base. Yet, although this mountain base was targeted several times both by the Israeli and the American AirForce: How come Iran can still launch from Yazd? 👇 Because you’re not dealing with a single, fixed launch site, you’re dealing with a layered, redundant system: The IRGC uses mobile TELs (transporter-erector-launchers) that operate from mountain zones like Yazd but are constantly repositioned, so airstrikes hit infrastructure, not necessarily the launchers themselves. Much of the capability is also deeply buried in hardened tunnels, which are extremely difficult to destroy without sustained, precise follow-up strikes. Even after hits, Iran can still launch because only parts of the system are degraded, not eliminated: command nodes, storage, and access points may be damaged, but surviving units remain operational. In short: mobility underground hardening redundancy = persistent launch capability despite repeated strikes.

🔴 IRGC of Iran bombing civilians with cluster munitions, a splitting warhead weapon that releases dozens or hundreds of smaller submunitions over a wide area fox maximal casualties. These brutal missiles are designed for hitting large military compounds and assembly areas. 3rd video shows the impact of just one of those submunitions. 👇

Who wants to tell him Israel doesn’t use the MIM Patriot in years? The last one was sent to Ukraine back in 2024.. Your Google Maps are as outdated as your haircut @ethanlevinsz 😂

🚨 The head of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, Ebrahim Azizi: "By providing support to the Israeli regime with drones, the collapsing Ukraine has effectively become involved in the war. According to Article 51 of the UN Charter, this has turned its entire territory into a legitimate target for Iran."

🚨 The IRGC threatens: “Ukraine helped Israel, therefore they are a legitimate target”.

You heard it first. 2 days ago on @MarioNawfal space. 👇

Problem solved. 👇

🚨 Join me in the panel on @MarioNawfal space for a deep dive into the war with the IRGC in Iran 👇

🔴 If these B1 bombers will go through South-Lebanon on their way to Iran, the missiles attacks from Hezbollah will immediately stop. A crucial strategic corridor will be achieved. It can carry 56 tons of bombs. Equivalent to 5 F15E fighter jets.

🔴🇮🇷 THE IRGC GHOST REGIME: IS MOJTABA KHAMENEI REALLY THE NEW AYATOLLAH? In Iran, many believe Mojtaba Khamenei is either dead or severely wounded. A video circulating among IRGC circles over the past 24 hours supposedly proves he is alive and already functioning as Supreme Leader. But the clip appears to be AI-generated, which only strengthens the suspicions that Khamenei’s son was indeed hit in the attack. Adding to the speculation, a senior IRGC official recently said Mojtaba could rule “for years without showing his face.” IS THE IRGC PULLING A TRICK ON US? The Supreme Leader has the final word, but in reality Khamenei has not been actively involved in decision-making for the past year. It is the IRGC and its top commanders who truly run the country. The regime cannot survive without an Ayatollah, even if he is not really there. People just need to believe he is. I believe that’s why the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader was so swift and so loud. The IRGC is a ghost regime. 👇

🚨✍️ OPINION: HEZBOLLAH PLOTTING TO ATTACK ISRAEL FROM SYRIA Arab intelligence sources cited by Kan News report that Hezbollah is attempting to establish attack capabilities against Israel from Syrian territory, alongside its ongoing operations from Lebanon. In response, the Syrian government has reportedly ordered its military to prevent any militant cells from launching attacks toward Israel and has increased security measures in southern Syria, including new checkpoints and troop deployments along the border. Damascus is also continuing efforts to dismantle Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed infrastructure that remained in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

🔴 IS HEZBOLLAH TRYING TO DRAG SYRIA INTO THE WAR? The Syrian Army’s Operations Directorate stated overnight, in a message published by the state news agency SANA, that Hezbollah fired artillery shells at Syrian Army positions in the border town of Saraqta, in the rural Damascus area. According to the statement, Hezbollah has also deployed reinforcements to the Syria–Lebanon border, prompting the Syrian military to conduct what it described as a “situation assessment.” The Operations Directorate added that it has contacted the Lebanese Army regarding the incident and is currently “examining its options.”

🔴📹 WATCH: Iranian correspondent reports live from the oil facilities Israel attacked last night in Tehran. Surreal…

🚨🇮🇷 OSINT snapshot: IRAN’S CAPABILITY IS COLLAPSING. Iran opened the campaign with roughly 350 ballistic missiles on Day 1, but by Day 5 launches had fallen to around 40. The drone pattern tells the same story: ~300 on Day 1, over 500 on Day 2, then a sharp collapse to ~45 by Day 5. Cruise missiles barely featured, with only ~25 launches across the entire week before activity effectively flatlined. The trajectory suggests a classic depletion curve: U.S. and Israeli strikes are systematically hitting launchers, drone hubs, and underground storage, forcing Iran to fire less not by choice—but because the infrastructure and stockpiles behind the launches are being destroyed.

🔴 THE KURDISH DIVERSION: STRETCHING IRAN’S SECURITY APPARATUS One recurring argument is that the Iranian population should be armed to confront the regime. In practice, however, building a capable insurgent force from scratch would require years of training, organization, and logistics. If done hastily, it risks devolving into an Afghanistan-style scenario of fragmented militias. THIS IS WHERE THE KURDISH FACTOR BECOMES STRATEGICALLY RELEVANT: Unlike the broader Iranian population, Kurdish forces, particularly the Peshmerga operating from Iraqi Kurdistan are already armed, organized, and combat-experienced after decades of conflict. From an operational perspective, they represent an immediately deployable pressure point on the regime. Most Kurdish populations inside Iran are concentrated in the northwestern and western regions. Historically, Tehran has viewed Kurdish nationalism as a major internal security threat. To mitigate this risk, the regime deliberately fragmented Kurdish demographics and redistributed communities across different provinces in order to prevent the emergence of a contiguous Kurdish-majority zone that could sustain an independence movement. Ironically, this long-standing regime safeguard may now be turning into a strategic vulnerability. If Kurdish militant activity increases along multiple axes near the Iraqi border, it forces the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian security forces to divert manpower and intelligence resources toward peripheral containment operations. The strategic effect is simple: every battalion redeployed to manage Kurdish unrest in the periphery is one less unit available in the Iranian interior to suppress protests or contain broader anti-regime mobilization. In that sense, Kurdish pressure does not need to defeat the regime militarily. Its primary value lies in stretching the regime’s internal security architecture across multiple simultaneous fronts. From an OSINT perspective, recent Iranian troop movements and cross-border strikes around Erbil and the Iran–Iraq frontier suggest that Tehran is already taking this possibility seriously.

🔴 IS THIS GOING TO BE THE IDF’s NEXT TARGET? Less than 2 years ago, Israeli intelligence discovered an underground bunker under Al-Sahel Hospital in Beirut. The bunker serves as a central storage site for Hezbollah’s finances. 🔻