"You're so lucky to have invested in BTC years ago" The luck:

I'm currently allocated 85% into Bitcoin. Since late 2024, I've been selling most of my altcoins and I've never felt better about it. This is part of a new approach I've been taking in the past two years which I will explain in this long post. Over my past decade in crypto I've learned that you can de-risk in three ways: 1. Sell for fiat. 2. Sell for gold. 3. Sell for Bitcoin. I've done all, but one thing came on top consistently over the years. Bitcoin. This is the only crypto asset I believe can and will make higher highs for a very long time, with a likely price of $1M within the next 10 years. Why am I selling my altcoins? (bookmark this post if you don't have time to read it now). 1️⃣ First, to simplify my life. I've done it all since 2014. Roundtripped altcoins from top to bottom or sold Bitcoin for altcoins. In the best scenario, altcoins offer a fast asymmetric return that lasted days or weeks, at best. If you did not liquidate them at that time for Bitcoin, you'd be quick to lose all advantage and Bitcoin would outperform later. After experiencing this over three cycles, I learned to maximize my Bitcoin bag. The only certainty in this space. The other is that I will still be here in 10 years from now so be sure to hit a follow @duonine! This bring me to this cycle where I've been allocating heavily into Bitcoin and it paid to do so for two reasons: 1. Institutional demand for Bitcoin started in January 2024 with the ETFs approval 2. Altcoins dilution went exponential since Solana memes exploded The chance to catch a good altcoin today is perhaps 10x to 100x harder than a few years ago. There's too many of them now and liquidity is fragmented. I no longer see value in chasing altcoins from where I am, but they still retain one key niche use case. That asymmetric 100x return that can propel you to new wealth. That's worth it if you have a small portfolio. However, if you're into six figures and above, I think the risk vs reward is against you with altcoins. 2️⃣ Second, wealth preservation is more important that wealth generation after a certain number. If you have one Bitcoin or more, your focus should be to not lose it. Do not sell it, do not trade it for an altcoin. Protect it. The altcoin game, is in part, a game that aims to take that Bitcoin from you in one way or another. If you fall for the altcoin temptations, they win and you lose. I fell for that back in 2018 when I sold Bitcoin for altcoins. Big mistake that costed me a lot looking back. That lesson is the same today. Nothing has changed. Perhaps what has changed is that the altcoin games became even more clever at taking your Bitcoin today. Either way, if you catch a 100x, secure it with Bitcoin and don't gamble it away. It's a sure path to losing it. 3️⃣ Third, a bear market will come Most altcoins already experienced a bear market while Bitcoin broke into new records in the past two years. Tough spot to be in, so if I 5x or 10x on an alt, I already sold it. No regrets. However, Bitcoin will also top as will Ethereum and enter a bear market this year or next year. That one will be devastating for anyone still holding altcoins at that point. What I know for sure is that Bitcoin will recover and make new highs after that. The vast majority of altcoins will never recover. This is why my priority in the period to come is to stack cash and prepare for the bear market discounts. If anyone tells you the 4-year cycle is dead, ignore them. Every market moves in cycles. Bitcoin has been going up for years now. A major correction will come, be patient and prepare for it. The focus then will be to buy as much Bitcoin as I can afford. If I buy altcoins, they will be very few and maximum 10% of any cash I have. The reason for that is clear, there are very few winners in the altcoin casino nowadays. Two good examples of that in this cycle are Pendle and Hype. ⚡ Plan going forward I won't hesitate to trade altcoins for quick profits, swings or position plays. But that is only for my trade stack. I will no longer hold alts long term or between cycles. Getting rid of alts feels liberating and allows me to focus on what matters. If you have altcoins, use the coming months wisely. Perhaps the last major window to get out before the bears return. I will never sell my Bitcoin. At best, I will borrow against it. You can easily do that in DeFi. There's really no reason to sell it if you need cash. Most people will be able to retire off one Bitcoin within 10 years or so. If you don't have one, do your best to get one. Then just wait. I will continue to cover the space across my channels as usual. There is a lot of value in the altcoin space due to DeFi, tokenization of TradFi, and onboarding the unbanked. I am not a maxi per se, I state things as I see them. That can be right or wrong, the market will eventually decide. If I see something that excites me, you'll be the first to know. Hit a follow @duonine if you enjoyed these reflections as we navigate the next decade in crypto. I'll be right here. Share and bookmark this!

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