The New York Knicks have finally won an NBA Championship for the first time since 1973. The last time this happened, I was busy being born.

Complexity Is A Filter. Special situations are not hard because the math is impossible. They are hard because the setup is annoying. New filings. Stub values. Tax questions. Odd early trading. Forced sellers. Most investors move on. That is often where the work begins.

Paraguay looking awful.

Who wrote this garbage? Better yet, who voted for her? Neither should be proud of themselves.

Nike isn't a bad bet here on a bounce back at $45. I think all the bad news is priced in. I just bought some.

When we were buying Dine Brands at $21, the comments were predictable. Casual dining is dead. Applebee’s is broken. No one goes to IHOP The consumer is finished. The balance sheet is too levered. The dividend will be cut. Management has lost control. It was all possible. That is why the stock was $21. But investing is not about buying perfect stories. It is about buying mispriced expectations. Now $DIN is around $35 and suddenly the consumer is not quite as dead as everyone thought. The market rarely rewards comfort. It rewards the moment when bad news stops getting worse. Buy when everyone hates it …

The crowd is not always wise. Sometimes it is just the liquidity. With the SpaceX IPO reportedly 4x oversubscribed, it is worth asking whether investors are buying edge or just access. My latest piece is on prediction markets, herd behavior, spinoffs and why Structural Alpha lives where price is being distorted. My latest for @Barchart barchart.com/story/news/2430…

A highly likely takeover name. It's still singing cheap ... $DIN

SpaceX IPO pricing meeting after someone asked who’s going to buy it at $1.75 trillion. ‘Retail.’

Sphere almost at $150 and the market still doesn’t get it. It’s a double in 2 years or less from here. I’ve owned it from $22 $SPHR

Herd mentality is real. The crowd creates noise, liquidity, and momentum. It does not always create wisdom. I spend a lot of time studying behavioral bias, forced selling, and the moments when price stops reflecting value. With several major IPOs coming, I’m writing a timely piece on why investors should be careful when everyone wants into the same trade. Sign up below to read it. @Barchart It’s free. barchart.com/news/authors/36…

SpaceX getting $70 billion of retail orders is not just an IPO. It is a reminder that the most powerful thing in markets is not revenue, EBITDA, or valuation. It is belief. And belief is very hard to model in Excel.

Breakups Reveal Value. People say breakups “unlock value.” I prefer: reveal value. The value was usually there already. It was hidden by complexity, weak capital allocation, poor comparability or the wrong investor base. A breakup forces the market to look again. That is where structural alpha begins.

SpaceX may be one of the greatest companies ever built. That still does not mean the IPO is where investors will make the best money. Huge demand tells you the story is loved. It does not tell you the price is wrong in your favor. My latest for @Barchart barchart.com/story/news/2407…

Paul Tudor Jones is the real celebrity spot here.

Bumped into one of my investors in a bar this evening. He told me he was very happy being up 50% in a year. That felt good. But it was also humbling. Behind every return number is someone’s trust, patience, savings, and belief that you will treat their capital with care. That responsibility never gets old.

$75 billion for SpaceX? That money could have been given to poor people instead. Then they could each buy SpaceX shares at $135 and become poor again like the rest of us.