Electoral Calculus (electoralcalculus.co.uk) is a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data.
Joined September 2016
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Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Greens have lost 1pc of support since April. If a general election happened now, #Reform would be the largest party but short of a majority and would need #Conservative support. #Labour would be third largest party.
Details:electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
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'This was particularly fertile hunting ground for Reform for votes...'
Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus discusses Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's odds of winning a by-election in Makerfield, as he make a bid to become Prime Minister.
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Our latest newsletter looks at the political drama of the week, with Andy Burnham's possible return to Westminster via Makerfield.
Plus, Politics By Numbers digs into the seven political tribes shaping Britain.
Watch➡️youtube.com/@ElectCalc
ALT Makerfield LSDM
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For the Senedd election tomorrow, we predict Plaid Cymru and Reform to be the two largest parties. Neither is forecast to win a majority but Plaid will likely lead the next coalition government. Plaid's central forecast is 35 seats with a range of 25 to 42
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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As of Wed 6 May, Electoral Calculus predicts that the SNP will continue in government after the Holyrood elections on 7 May. Central forecast of 65 seats, a bare majority, with a predicted range of 55 to 69 seats.
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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Our latest poll-of-polls has #Reform slightly down but still ahead, though far short of a majority. They would need #Conservative support to govern, with #Labour as the opposition. #PlaidCymru has doubled its predicted seats since last month. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
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Our latest MRP poll for @PLMRLtd suggests that if a general election were held now Reform could still form a government with Conservative support.
Reform remains the largest party but is down to 24pc from 31pc in our January poll
Full findings here ⬇️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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Our new MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK for the @ScotNational predicts a narrow outright majority for the SNP in the Holyrood elections.
Predicted results
SNP: 67
LAB: 17
Reform: 14
Green: 14
CON: 9
LIB: 8
Full data and tables here ⬇️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Apr 6
BREAKING: The SNP are set for an outright majority in the Holyrood elections, according to a major new poll
The new research is only the second time multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) has been used to estimate the results of a Scottish parliament election
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Our latest poll-of-polls has #Reform ahead, but down from their peak. They would need #Conservative help to have a majority, and the #Greens would be the official opposition. Details here: electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
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ICYMI: Our latest newsletter explored the UK public's views on the war in Iran, our new podcast and featured a Live Seat Data Map (LSDM) view of Nottingham South.
If you want more Live Seat Data Map insights straight to your inbox, subscribe here⬇️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/subs…
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Feb 27
NEW: Keir Starmer and most of the Labour Cabinet would lose their seats if the Gorton and Denton result was replicated at the next election, @ElectCalculus analysis suggests 👇
Sir John Curtice texts: “I make the numbers even worse for Labour!” 😬
telegraph.co.uk/politics/202…
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We are live on @GBNEWS with Martin Baxter giving all the updates on the Gorton and Denton by-election 🗳️
'This is the 38th safest seat for Labour in the country... This shows how far Labour have fallen.'
Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus discusses polling showing how close the result of the Gorton and Denton by-election is likely to be, amid a high voter turnout.
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Join our newsletter for data-driven election analysis📊
Twice a month you’ll get:
•Our latest election predictions (UK and abroad)
•Polling insights and political analysis
•Exclusive constituency snapshots with Live Seat Data Maps
Sign up here⬇️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/subs…
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In line with our prediction on Friday 6 Feb, the LDP won 316 seats in Japan's General Election 🇯🇵
This falls within our predicted range of 260 to 320 seats. The party, on its own, now has a two-thirds majority in the lower house.
➡️electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
As of Friday, Electoral Calculus predicts that the LDP will secure around 291 seats in Japan's General Election on Sun 8 Feb, winning a comfortable majority or better without needing support from coalition partner Ishin. (Pred range: 260 to 320 seats.)
➡️electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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As of Friday, Electoral Calculus predicts that the LDP will secure around 291 seats in Japan's General Election on Sun 8 Feb, winning a comfortable majority or better without needing support from coalition partner Ishin. (Pred range: 260 to 320 seats.)
➡️electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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Last September, our founder Martin Baxter said:
“Expect to see slogans like ‘Only Labour can stop Reform’ widely used.”
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
And here we are ⬇️
Jan 28
Only Labour can defeat Reform in Gorton and Denton. A vote for the Greens or any other party risks them getting in.
We are a tolerant, proud, progressive city and we don’t want their divisive brand of politics here.
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🚨We’ve updated our maps and data with new council ward boundaries for 2026
Changes apply to Barnsley, Bradford, Calderdale, Coventry, Gateshead, Kirklees, Milton Keynes, Newcastle upon Tyne, Sandwell, Sefton, Solihull, South Tyneside, Sunderland, Swindon, Wakefield and Walsall
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