Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections.
Joined September 2012
- Tweets 48,710
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- Followers 91,194
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2,100 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
29 Oct 2025
My analysis of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut's early voting (all states with party registration and data where I can make a same-day 2024 comparisons) open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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I analyzed turnout by race and Hispanic ethnicity in Virginia's redistricting amendment vote michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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I analyzed party registration turnout and candidate vote shares for yesterday's three Florida special elections open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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I posted a 2026 Texas Primary turnout and early voting analysis open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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8 Nov 2025
A rule-of-thumb forecast that might be informative moving forward is to take the special election margin shifts over the next year and divide by half. I explain here michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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7 Nov 2025
Posted VEP turnout rates for the 2025 statewide elections, with an analysis open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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4 Nov 2025
Updated the early vote analysis for California, where registered Democrats slightly improved their position from my update last Friday. They're going into today with a 5.5 point shift from 2024 in the early vote open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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3 Nov 2025
Continuing to update early voting analyses more states as data become available. New Jersey added most recently. You'll have to follow me on the other site where an algorithm doesn't control your feed if you want real time updates open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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4 Nov 2025
Last early vote update of the day from Virginia posted open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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3 Nov 2025
I added the first state with updated data -- Connecticut -- to my election even early vote analysis. I'll post updates to this post throughout the data as more states' data becomes available open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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31 Oct 2025
Posted a Virginia early voting analysis. Short story: Virginia may be tighter than New Jersey, but there's been one week less early voting at satellite early voting centers in large Democratic localities that is confounding the data open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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31 Oct 2025
My analysis of CA's early voting for Prop 50. CA has the highest level of voting among states where elections are taking place. There is a net 5.3 shift in party reg towards Democrats compared to the same day in 2024, boding well for passage of Prop 50 michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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29 Oct 2025
My analysis of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut's early voting (all states with party registration and data where I can make a same-day 2024 comparisons) open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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30 Oct 2025
Posted a New Mexico early vote analysis, which indicates a coming blue wave just like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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25 Oct 2025
If you want my early voting takes, a reminder you'll have to go to another site
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Michael McDonald retweeted
28 Sep 2025
We added 2022 and 2024 election data for Indiana.
Thanks to @ufelectionlab (@ElectProject , VEST) !!!
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22 May 2025
I've updated my CPS turnout rate demographics and posted analysis michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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17 Feb 2025
I still post here to relay my substack postings that may be of interest to those not on B lu esKy, but really, if you're still here you need to rethink being on a platform that is actively controlling the information you see techcrunch.com/2025/02/17/x-…
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15 Feb 2025
With a Florida 2024 voter file with vote history released, I analyzed Florida's party registration voting patterns from 2020 to 2024 open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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