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Election Preview @ElectionPreview

Election Forecasts and polling aggregates for federal, state, and local elections.

Joined September 2022
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Election Preview@ElectionPreview
3 Nov 2025
Virginia Governor Model Forecast‼️ Chance of Winning: Spanberger(D)- 96.8% Sears(R)- 3.2% Median Model Output Spanberger- 53.2%(D 9%) Sears- 44.2% 90% range- D 1% to D 16.8% 10k simulations using Partisan lean, polling, cash on hand, money raised, and # of instate donors.
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We can now project that the Virginia Redistricting Referendum will pass Call made at 8:36 PM
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We can now project that Jay Jones will be the next Attorney General of Virginia. R to D flip Call made at 8:21PM
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We can now project that Ghazala Hashmi will be the next Lieutenant Governor of Virginia. R to D flip Call made at 7:51PM
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We can now project that Abigail Spanberger will be the next governor of Virginia. R to D flip Call made at 7:42PM
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Final Senate Forecasting Model Update‼️ (As of November 4th) Republicans🟥- 90.0% (51.7 avg) Democrats🟦- 10.0% (48.3 avg)
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Democrat's Odds in Competitive Races Arizona- 58% Florida- 13% Michigan- 70% Montana- 7% Nebraska- 3% Nevada- 81% Ohio- 50% Pennsylvania- 74% Texas- 5%
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Forecasted Margins in Competitive Races Arizona- D 2.1% Florida- R 6.6% Michigan- D 4.0% Montana- R 8.0% Nebraska- R 9.7% Nevada- D 5.5% Ohio- R 0.1% Pennsylvania- D 4.5% Texas- R 8.9%
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Final Presidential Forecasting Model Update‼️ (As of November 4th) Harris🟦- 50.8% (270.0 avg) Trump🟥- 47.9% (268.0 avg) Tie🟨- 1.3%
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Forecasted Margins in Swing States: Arizona- R 1.5% Georgia- R 1.2% Michigan- D 1.4% Nevada- D 1.0% North Carolina- R 1.6% Pennsylvania- D 0.4% Wisconsin- D 0.6%
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Forecasted Margins In Other Key States: Florida- R 4.2% Iowa- R 7.1% Maine- D 8.7% Minnesota- D 5.1% Nebraska 2- D 6.7% New Hampshire- D 8.4% New Mexico- D 8.4% Ohio- R 8.1% Texas- R 7.4% Virginia- D 7.6%
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Our final Presidential and Senate Model update will be released tomorrow morning
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Ratings Changes!!! Michigan- Lean DEM---> Likely DEM Nebraska- Safe GOP---> Likely GOP
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Democrat's Odds in Competitive Races Arizona- 72% Florida- 17% Michigan- 76% Montana- 10% Nebraska- 7% Nevada- 89% Ohio- 52% Pennsylvania- 80% Texas- 5%
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Forecasted Margins in Competitive Races Arizona- D 4.3% Florida- R 6.0% Michigan- D 4.9% Montana- R 7.4% Nebraska- R 8.4% Nevada- D 7.1% Ohio- R 0.7% Pennsylvania- D 5.5% Texas- R 8.8%
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Senate Forecasting Model Update‼️ (As of October 21st) Republicans🟥- 86.3% (51.2 avg) Democrats🟦- 13.7% (48.8 avg)
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Median Scenario: GOP- 51 DEM- 49
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