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ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict

Politics/Elections. Every D is better than any R. Supporter of ALL Democrats, Big tent party advocate, Pragmatic progressive, Hate purity tests. #VoteBlue

Joined May 2023
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ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict
20 Jun 2024
My election theory First off, I have no way to actually prove it, but I think it’s one of very few possibilities that explains elections from 2016-2024, polls also difference between Obama vs Trump/Biden years. Short answer: it’s “the resistance”, long answer, a thread 🧵 /1
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Losers complain, winners win. Republicans fucked around and now they’re finding out. 10-1.
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The 2 spice picks of my predictions = total failure, along with Texas Senate 😂
Decision Desk HQ
 @DecisionDeskHQ
6 Nov 2024
Decision Desk HQ projects Kelly Ayotte (R) wins the Gubernatorial election in New Hampshire. #DecisionMade: 11:16 PM EDT Follow live results here: decisiondeskhq.com/results/2…
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First flip of the night for Democrats!
Decision Desk HQ
 @DecisionDeskHQ
6 Nov 2024
Decision Desk HQ projects John Mannion (D) wins the US House election in New York's 22nd congressional district. #DecisionMade: 10:32 PM EDT Follow live results here: decisiondeskhq.com/results/2…
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I’m going to be straight with y’all because you deserve that. In rural areas fully or near fully counted, Trump is matching or exceeding his 2020 margins. In suburban and urban areas I’m seeing Harris matching or exceeding Biden’s 2020 margins. My bet is latter matters most.
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If he isn’t already, Connecticut Dave is moving back to his home state.
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Not going to lie, I did a double take 😂
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Wait a second, you’re telling me that all of the small sample size crosstabs were less accurate than large subsamples of specific demographics? Knock me over with a feather.
Swann Marcus
 @SwannMarcus89
6 Nov 2024
You love to see it. Now we just need their turnout high enough
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Holy crap! Boone County, IN (suburb surrounding Indianapolis) 91% counted Trump 54.4 🔴 Harris 43.9 🔵 2020: Trump 58.1 🔴 Biden 39.6 🔵 Shift: D 8 🔵
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The first sign of a suburban GOP collapse? Stay tuned for more results!
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If Harris and Democrats win tonight, their spending on “it’s the economy, stupid” messaging as the GOP ranted about culture war stuff will be a big reason why. newrepublic.com/article/1879…
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Acyn
 @Acyn
5 Nov 2024
Fox just showed this exit poll 👀
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For those who may not understand, US voters are by far the most conservative on immigration topic, than any other issue. It was 50/50 for “deport all immigrants” polls over the summer and fall. So either everyone changed their mind or more Democrats turned out than expected.
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Election Eve Megathread! I’m predicting a wave, here’s why 🧵👇 First: What is wave election? It’s when 1 party does 5 points better than opponents, getting big base turnout, vast majority undecided, that overwhelms opposition. 2008, 2010, 2014 2018 were waves. 2 D’s, 2 R’s.
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Cook Political 8-5 left 🔵 Sabato 27-13 left 🔵 Inside Elections 22-9 left 🔵 Did they expand battlefield? Yes. Democrats, Republicans spending millions of dollars in IN Gov, TX/FL/NE Sen Trump won House districts in last stretch. If both parties invest, both see it winnable.
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Ok, so why do I think this will happen? Here’s a 40 tweet research thread breaking down this theory, but the TLDR is pollsters are missing Democratic voters. Add in a net favorable viewed politician Harris you have potent recipe to create a wave 🌊 x.com/ElectionsAddict/status…

ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict
20 Jun 2024
My election theory First off, I have no way to actually prove it, but I think it’s one of very few possibilities that explains elections from 2016-2024, polls also difference between Obama vs Trump/Biden years. Short answer: it’s “the resistance”, long answer, a thread 🧵 /1
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Democratic leaders are confident in PUBLIC in ways I haven’t seen since 2018.
Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
5 Nov 2024
PELOSI: "Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don't know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House."
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