As I promised here it is! Public available tracker, with each bet posted having a Twitter link. As I post a bet, it will be added instantly here and updated after the game ends. I probably should have done it way earlier, but better now than never! docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

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1u Flau'jae Johnson over 14.5 pts -110 mgm, -114 betrivers, -115 hr, -128 DK, -125 betonline, -127 caesars While Flau'jae only has one over, against same opponent as today, Sun are perfect matchup and she plays on good usage since start of the season (and good minutes). She has over 23% usg rate in 3/4 games, with only against Tempo where it was lower (which dont give pts to sgs) Currently, Sun looks like they will be horrible on defense again. They allow most fta in the league, 2nd most transition and pnr ballhandler. All of these are major ways Johnson scores. She had 16 pts vs them even though she had 3/10 from the field (9/10 fta). After shooting 3/7 for three in her WNBA debut, she shot 1/8 for three in last 3 games. There should be some positive variation there The graphic below is from @propsmadness, and while similar players have some context which is why it doesnt look perfect (most of the guards there are Aces), it's good to look at the shot chart. Johnson scores from everywhere, but it's good to see she is already able to have a good chunk of points at the rim. Sun is below average at guarding it even though they acquired Griner, as they struggle with returning and defending transition. Flau'jae is shifty and really aggresive, even though her shot selection is bad this matchup is good I dont think points graph has any point in posting as she only has one over but i think as Flau'jae will get more comfortable, we will higher lines on her - i dont think she will continue being this inefficient from outside. She had 40% for three on catch and shoot in last college season

WNBA record is now 1-2, i had a break as had to fix some things with my personal life but im back now

1u Alyssa Thomas over 16.5 pts -118 betonline, -125 dk. -128 FD, In first two games of the season, Alyssa had 33% usage and 28%. Last season with Sabally off the court, she had 26% usage (23% with on). Sabally is gone, and just like when she wasnt on the court, Alyssa has huge usage. On the graph is Alyssa last year with 27% or higher usage Game vs Valkyries showcased when it isnt a blow-out, Alyssa won't spare from playing heavy minutes (close to last season, but could be even more extreme as i dont think anyone can get into role Sabally had last year). Lynx dont have Allana Smith anymore, and I expect their defense to become worse inside, while Collier is still out (also an important defender). I know there is a chance Lynx decide just to double her, but they were not doing hard doubling in the playoffs, even though Thomas was having good games and beat them Thomas started this season with two overs, while Lynx allowed a ton of rim points and fta (30) to Dream . Alyssa is a force at drawing fouls, and Lynx showcased a problem with that even in preseason when Mystics had 40 free throws vs them, and Nigeria had 37. After starting the season with b2b's, Alyssa should be rested now, and with both heavy minutes and good usage, she has good chances to clear this

If I had this earlier line would be more available, a hook win tho ✅🪝 Mercury allows perimeter fga, but is mixing up with hard coverage on ballhandler guards. Still ended up as an over, b2b was definitely factor why their defense was bad

1u Veronica Burton over 12.5 pts -120 DK, -123 betonline (also moved fuck), -124 caesars, -125 hr -135 bovada FD jumped to 13.5 sadly, betonline too No Hayes and Zandalasini for GSV, and Mercury is on b2b It looks like Mercury will look to play similarly on defense like last year, focus on denying points on the rim. Veronica had good games vs Mercury last season (16,17,24,11), and without Hayes she has increased last year in both usage and minutes. While the addition of Gabby Williams means GSV has more options than last year when Hayes was out, it looks like Veronica will be the main option for GSV When looking at Aces play vs Mercury, Jackie actually had plenty opportunities to score, just couldnt get shot to fall.

Whole day i had problems with the internet and tried to fix it so i decided I won't post anything today, but after i fixed it i think i found something, will post it soon, Mercury Valkyries, best odds DK, HR, betonline, Caesars, playable in FD Season starts with 0-1, yeah I should think more about b2b's, one of the bigger problems last year, but it's fucking nuts how hard Mercury destroyed Aces and A'ja playing just 24 minutes because of how huge the blowout was. Yes, there was help again on A'ja just like in the Finals, but with regular minutes she would clear the line by sheer forcing as other Aces players struggled even more than her Mercury was giving midrange Mercury will be good defense again

1u A'ja Wilson over 23.5 pts -120 FD, bovada, -125 Dk, Caesars I know Aces added Carter in the offseason, who is coming back to the WNBA after playing one versus five in Arabia (we saw how she will play without A'ja in preseason game vs Japan), but hierarchy was clear in the other preseason game vs Wings, even though A'ja and Aces struggled This matchup is between last season finalists, and Mercury brought belgian center Liskens and lost Sabally in free agency. In the finals, there was a solid amount of help against A'ja, and she still had 28.5 points per game in the series. Liskens played for Belgium vs Usa and was one of the players who guarded A'ja. She has the strength to hold in the paint (Mack doesn't), so I wouldn't be surprised if there is more single coverage Aces addition for the frontcourt is Talbot instead Gustafson and Stokes. I don't think A'ja plays less than 28 mpg this season again as Talbot has some problems in her game on offense

Update Wnba season starts tonight, I didn't want to bet early lines so I will skip season opener. I will post picks for free in May, but I don't know will! open group after or what I will do NBA is not going well but I don't have nothing to blame. Will work on something for @propsmadness

I pretty much killed my own x account but it is what it is Season not going well, record is 91-89 with -5.945u I am not sure what the next step is for me, do I want to continue all of this or call it quits after this season, its just i am unsure is it some kind of mental problem or this just is not what's for me. It is not the record of this season that makes me question, but the whole process being horrible even when i had somewhat good results in the past

Again my volume is an issue. I accept it could go problematic if I had bad variance and that I had good variance, but the season is finally in profit New Year resolution: higher volume duh

Just 6 fga and 10 pts ❌ -1.15u

Merry Christmas! Let's have a free pick! 1u Deandre Ayton over 12.5 pts -115 hardrock, -125 betonline, draftkings, bovada, -129 caesars, -130 FD First graph, there is only one game with both Luka, Bron, and Ayton, where Ayton played over 29 minutes, it was vs Toronto, where we had over. He covered the line. But I chose to put the graph with Ayton's performances with higher minutes because Hayes is out for the Lakers Vanderbilt is the type of player that should be legit unplayable vs the Rockets, so that's why I think Ayton should have increased minutes. Lakers have Kleber too, but he isn't a high usage or high minutes player Houston allows centers to score; they are allowing the 7th most in the league. Their defense is more oriented toward denying ball movement and catch-and-shoot. DFS debuting for the Rockets means their perimeter defense will be even better. Eason played several games since he recovered from injury too, so Ayton should get more usage tonight as Lakers should struggle from the outside

This month, my free pick volume was again bad, but at least something improved - first time in the season I am in green! In December, the record for now is 24-12 12.605u

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Since the last recap, group went 4-3 1.14u

2nd half killed this. In the 1st half, Reed had a 21% USG% and in the 2nd half just 7%. Aaron was more frequently positioned at above-the-break in the 2nd half than Reed, who was in the corner. So bookmakers were right with their usg projection for Reed ❌-1.05u Group went 1-1 with Monk o14.5 pts being a win

1u Reed Sheppard over 10.5 points -104 FD, -105 betonline, -105 mgm Reed had 4-game under streak before going over vs the Mavs. One of the main reasons was lower usage in games s Sac and Jazz. But his usage is back in 20% Agaisnt Suns he had 11 fga. 4 out of 5 of those games were blowouts. LAC is bad this year and could get blown out, but i think L2 games are good usg trend for Reed in a favorable matchup LAC allows 2nd most pull-up pts ( 36% of Reed pts) and 5th most catch and shoot (44% of Reed pts). That's 80% of Reed pts While the Clippers allow catch and shoot, they aren't doing that by allowing many corner threes (which isn't something Reed shoots a lot - 11% of his pts). Aaron Holiday, Jabari Smith, and Okogie are more frequent there. LAC allows above-the-break three though: most in the league, and those threes are Reed's main scoring zone, 50% of his points, and he is the highest volume atb shooter on the team

Update on the group: the month started solid. It's still a long way to get into the green zone