#Bitcoin is at a critical point.
The Spot ETF has done wonders for this recent rally.
On the other hand, the macro seems to be getting worse by the day.
Two major forces, each one pulling in the opposite direction.
Here's how I think this unfolds π
Battling down
#inflation contributes to 2 negative things for Bitcoin:
- People stop searching for non-depreciative assets;
- Increases the risk of a recession;
The first point is obvious, the core idea of
#Bitcoin is to stop the powerful from printing our wealth away.
The second one is not so apparent, as many people don't consider
#Bitcoin to be a risk asset.
If a person or business is in financial trouble, they usually dump the asset which is the most speculative.
And although I am extremely bullish long-term, I must say that
#Bitcoin is mostly speculation, with not much current real-world utility.
Inflation can't go away magically, as
#liquidity needs to be drained.
And there isn't a good way to drain liquidity that doesn't require a recession.
To build on this, Bitcoin's public perception is very bad.
Retailers who are interested in
#Bitcoin currently are already in.
And nobody will give up the power of self-custody to buy through the spot ETF.
Institutions who are interested in
$BTC would also be looking at how to survive the
#recession, instead of spending more on speculative assets.
This is mostly apparent with the most recent rally which put in a new ATH, but the Total market cap of crypto as a whole was at the same level of April.
This indicates that it is the same money being traded back and forth.
This further supports the claim of institutions not buying but rather
#web3 peeps.
I don't believe we go up much further, and that this rally will turn sooner rather than later.