do
@Polymarket and
@Kalshi agree on who wins the 2026 World Cup?
two separate venues, different crowds, prices set independently. here's where they have the top contenders:
Poly Kalshi
France 17.1¢ 16.8¢
Spain 16.0¢ 16.6¢
England 11.5¢ 10.8¢
Portugal 9.3¢ 9.4¢
Argentina 8.9¢ 9.1¢
Brazil 8.3¢ 8.4¢
biggest gap on any contender: 0.6¢.
add up all 48 teams and the two books are within 4 points of each other on total implied probability (Poly 102.9%, Kalshi 106.8%).
two venues, no shared book, landing on the same prices.
when two separate markets agree this tightly, it usually means the price is already right. so is there any money left to make here, or is the World Cup just too efficient to beat?