Actually it is how SpaceX proves the doubters wrong not the fact that they proved them wrong. This conference, Singapore 2013. Arianespace had 65% of the GEO/GTO market and SpaceX had not made it to GEO/GTO with a payload. The Global GEO/GTO satellite launch market was 25 per year and had been for some time. Other launches were either trivial, military or government sponsored. So when Richard made these comments he was exactly right to the business he understood. Literally as far as he knew there was no market for reuse. The most crushing comment here was. "If you look in the rear view mirror, you’re correct. But if you look out the front windshield, it’s a very different view." Because looking out of the front window SpaceX lifted SES8 to GTO that year. Then SpaceX went on to lower launch prices and then build Starlink. Almost everyone launches on reused Starlink boosters now when they launch with SpaceX except for a few specific use cases. However Richard was right in what he was saying even if he was totally wrong in direction. SpaceX will not achieve $470 per kg to orbit until Starship is operational in fully reusable mode. $1,000 internally, sure, but $470? Even SpaceX internal costs have never met that. Then if we look at 2025, SpaceX launched 10 launches to GEO/GTO. That is 10, not 20 or 320 or 40. 10. Because even today at lower costs, GEO/GTO launches are low volume. The main issues here with legacy space were total arrogance, failing to model in the "what if SpaceX do manage it" and looking out of the rear view window instead of looking to evolve their business. It is important to not just mock the arrogance but to understand how SpaceX achieved this and why those "knowledgeable about the subject" were totally wrong. SpaceX literally changed the meaning of what orbiting space infrastructure did and meant. With Starship they are going to do it again but on Starship scale, not Falcon 9 scale.

Just purely on space based DC alone the announcements recently made make start reading. I've run the numbers a few times now. If SpaceX actually manage to get the facilities producing by the end of 2027, they get 1GW of satellite compute out in 2028. More than 2GW in 2029 and 2030 is liftoff in a big way. But there is more. The earth based infrastructure required to connect all these nodes? Millions of miles of fibre, millions of network connectors for the fibre, mountains of cable in racks, power infrastructure, transformers, network routers. They all go away. Replaced by discrete 120kw slices all interleaved into Starlink and the Starlink network. But over and above that is more. Pick your DC. So Elon says they are chip agnostic. SpaceX will be making the motherboards, PCB design, everything and bonding on the memory and chips. So want 100,000 GB300? 1,400 satellites. 28 launches. Done. It launches, self assembles, sets up communications and goes live. One 168MW datacentre. Add another 5 and you have 1GW of DC compute. 168 launches. Then it gets even more interesting. You now have a 1GW datacentre ready to go and it has no power or cooling costs. The hosting fee is agreed around the manufacturing, launch and hosting for the next 5-7 years. Now tell me how any Earth borne datacentres can compete? Why would you build them on earth? You would need a total revisit on power generation, cooling and how you build out your datacentre. Even if you moved your datacentre to a vacuum based area with laser comms and ditched all of the fibres and 90% of the switching, you are still paying more for power and more for cooling. Unless you have serious unicorn magic pixie dust solutions. By 2035 without any serious change in the way earth based datacentres are created and run, the only people not using spaced based DC will be those who are politically or ideologically barred from using them. It just won't make any sense to do anything else. When Elon announced that, essentially, they would become chip agnostic on their satellite pcb's he just told the world you can order whatever DC you want in space and we'll build it and launch it for you. The really hilarious bit is all those people doing their NIMBY dance are going to be looking seriously poe faced in only a decade when everyone says "yeah right, we don't want or need your area, let it rot". Of course that's just space based DC. Now if we want to talk launch, Lunar bases, SAI and a Mars civilisation with everything that entails. Terafab, did I forget that? Course I did. What bout Terafab's brother on Mars? The list is as endless as is the space in our solar system.

I did a long session with Grok on this matching sats to production capacity to launch capacity. SpaceX make traditional Earth datacentres non economic in 3-5 years. Unless something changes dramatically with power and cooling on the ground, the advantages of these sats is going to overwhelm all on earth datacentres. Think about the equivalent datacentre on Earth. You would need a building in a full vacuum with servers connected to a laser comms backbone with the ability to pull a cabinet out (probably vertically), without disturbing the rest. Oh and free power too. And free cooling. No matter how good you get on Earth and that would be pretty extreme, trying to beat a near zero infrastructure, zero power or cooling cost, dedicated network backbone in Starlink; with anything on Earth?? The launch costs, if they come in as estimated, make the Space DC half the price of land. Also no permits. Elon suggesting he will literally launch a whole datacentre with your preferred processors is also wild. Nvidia, AMD, Google Tensor or Tesla AI/Dojo, means you can literally order a DC from SpaceX and they just build it and launch it. Anyone thinking about how totally wild this is? How close to impossible to compete with?

Interesting confirmation from the SpaceX at the NASA Artemis III crew reveal broadcast. Artemis III will be serviced with a Starship off the line with a docking adapter. So not a HLS variant. Confirmation that Starship will take Orion to the Moon and to LLO. Not confirmed but implied. The first cabin for Starship currently being built will go in the ship off the line. Not confirmed or implied, how Orion is getting out of LLO and back to Earth. Whether there is any Starship assist or not or whether the ESM can get it back if it does not have to get Orion to LLO. An interesting mix of reveals and things not said.

The factory plans were highly interesting. Not even Tefafab but just the Bastrop buildings. Also the "End of next year" for these buildings being operational. 18 months. Bullish.

Our statement on the UK government’s demand that all content on all devices sold or used in the country be scanned, on the presumption of nudity, using a dystopian combination of age verification and content scanning. This proposal will not safeguard children. It endangers us all. signal.org/blog/pdfs/2026-06…

I see this person thinks it is all simple and things will just go on as they have before. He's in for a serious shock. Burnham might have won that election but Starmutt and his cabal just proved that the stinking cesspit cannot be resolved by cutting off the head, the body is rotting and diseased. People are quietly determined this will not be business as usual. People are quietly determined to make a change and force the issue. I could be totally wrong but I believe the whole racist centre bloc is about to be blown right out of the water.

And please - if you value this work please support it. Help to fight back. Subscribe on X or support my Patreon- patreon.com/davidcollier or donate via PayPal/CC paypal.com/paypalme/davidhco… -thank you!!!! END

Debt of Honor: Airliner hits Congress mid-speech. Executive Orders: Jack Ryan rebuilds Congress with regular Americans. I just started Bear and the Dragon last night: Ryan says the new Congress is failing because all the staffers survived. TOLD YA’LL ITS THE STAFFERS

Was with some ex-SpaceXers at dinner last night when we got the word. Lots of post-explosion (AMOS-6 and CRS-7) reminiscing. My heart goes out to all the @blueorigin employees. It’s a long road ahead.

Couldn’t agree more with Shana. Thinking about the entire team at Blue. We’ve been there before and there are very few things worse than losing a vehicle on the pad. Remember @blueorigin, it’s the darkest before the dawn and you will be measured not by this anomaly, but by how you respond. We are all rooting for you to get safely back to flight as soon as possible!

At least the most important things were dealt with first. Good luck with the rebuilding and mishap investigation. Hope the team stays strong and digs in.

Been saying for years that Philip K Dick warned Us ...was Anyone listening?

Have you heard of antitrust? You cannot accuse the most expensive option of antitrust. It is driving out the poorer options where that is all that exists. It is a premium solution for those who need it. If they dropped prices to the level they could afford they would be in court every other week and regulators would be salivating to get their hands on them. By keeping prices very high they avoid all of this, take the slice of the market that can afford them and continue to grow dramatically. If that doesn't suit you, sucks for you. If you don't like it, fix the scumbags who infest your governments.

I was their BIGGEST fan. Panelist, Patreon supporter, event regular, even started my own channel partly because of them. Now I finally had to speak out about what happened to Fully Charged / Everything Electric. The name change, the silence on Tesla, my call with CEO Dan Ceaser… This one was hard to make. Watch below 👇

Jeff Bezos asked a room to imagine going back a hundred years. When almost everyone was a farmer. And telling those farmers that in 2018 there’d be a job called “massage therapist.” Bezos: “They would not have believed you.” Then a friend took it further. Bezos: “Forget massage therapist, there are dog psychiatrists.” He looked it up. Bezos: “Sure enough, you can easily hire a psychiatrist for your dog.” The room laughed. The point under the laughter wasn’t funny at all. Every time a major technology shift hits, we do the exact same thing. We count the jobs it will destroy. We never count the ones it will create. Because we can’t. They don’t have names yet. The fear is always specific. AI will replace accountants. AI will replace radiologists. AI will replace drivers. The fear has job titles and timelines and projections. The opportunity has none of those things. Because you can’t name what doesn’t exist yet. A farmer in 1920 could understand losing his job to a tractor. He could not understand gaining a career as a social media strategist. Not because he lacked intelligence. Because the entire chain of inventions between his world and that job hadn’t been built yet. Radio. Television. The internet. Smartphones. Social platforms. Creator economies. Every single link in that chain had to exist before “social media strategist” could even be a sentence. That’s where we are with AI right now. Everyone is staring at the tractor. Nobody can see the thing seven inventions away that doesn’t have a name yet. The fear is loud because it fits inside language we already have. The opportunity is silent because it doesn’t. Every technological revolution in history created more jobs than it destroyed. Every single one. Not because anyone planned it. Because human needs expand faster than machines can fill them. We didn’t need massage therapists when we were breaking our backs on farms. We needed them after machines freed our backs and stress replaced labor. The demand didn’t disappear. It migrated somewhere no one was looking. That is exactly what’s happening right now. The jobs AI creates won’t make sense to us yet. They’ll sound as absurd as “dog psychiatrist” would’ve sounded to a farmer in 1920. Until someone is running a $200 hourly practice with a six-month waitlist. The entire conversation right now is about what we’re about to lose. Nobody is talking about what we’re about to gain. Because the gains don’t have vocabulary yet. A hundred years from now, someone will stand on a stage and describe the jobs we couldn’t imagine today. And the audience will laugh. The same way we just did.

As the gauntlet crashes to the floor with a resounding boom, Fear Starmutt cowers away from the implications and retreats into political talking points. This one has miles to go and years to run.

It might have been better if they presented this a week before the many UK elections so that people could get the truth before they vote. But no, publish after the election and let it all vanish before the next one.

We are on the cusp of seeing Starship go operational and both Lunar and Mars launches will begin. The S curve looks like this, projected to 2050. This Curve is just for Starship beyond 2026. Everyone else, at this time, doesn't count and are just a rounding error.