The major fault with the argument that the current conflict parallels Gallipoli is that in 1914-1915, Britain was the consumer of the commodity flowing through the checkpoint. This was an existential vulnerability. But the US is the world's largest oil producer and a net exporter. Britain in 1914 is more analogous to Japan/South Korea/India and China... dependent nations with short term inventory. In short: the commodity dependency risk simply does not exist for the US in regards to oil. The US attack on Hormuz is motivated by geopolitical control, not existential oil risk. The US can survive a closed Hormuz far more easily than Britain could a century ago. The second failure point is that Epic Fury is currently in a ceasefire. It is not a military failure by any definition of the word. The US is simply dominant, end of story. Galipolu was about a military operation that failed, this is not that. There are numerous other reasons why its an imperfect analogy but not sure anyone is reading so I'll cut it off here.

Fable is really good but too expensive and burns through credits too fast, even on an enterprise plan. Non-starter, back to Opus. @AnthropicAI you need to fix this.

Really glad I faded that $PURR pump.

💥 It keeps getting worse🤣

It's absurdist, perhaps satirical. He's arguing against illogical reasoning of AI functionists, who claim that consciousness is an emergent property of LLMs, by showing that a large collection of digital coats could also exhibit the same emerging consciousness (this is proven, not theoretical). The inference here is that one must use measurements to determine if there is truly emergent consciousness. For instance, computing the phi of an LLM (integrated information theory). I find this interesting, haven't seen it discussed before. One could break the LLM in half (so to speak) at some particular link and determine how much does that constrain the past possible state of its inputs. Do this recursively for all of its weights (a big job but tractable) and measure its phi. High phi indicates emerging consciousness. Simple.

BREAKING: Italian Beef has announced its intentions to relocate from Chicago to Indianapolis, Indiana. A Chicago staple since the Great Depression, Italian Beef cited high crime, corruption and an overall unfriendly business climate as its reasons for leaving Chicago and Illinois.

Downtown Chicago cops are the absolute worst at doing their jobs. Most of the time, they didn't even show up. Thank God for the homeland security officers who occasionally get posted there or there would be absolute chaos.

Precisely why I won't touch Polymarket. I've seen dozens of these arbitrary rule changes.

I've hired a lot of people in my day. True

Isn't this just an oddly shaped water fountain?

I made a /seppuku skill for my Claudes for when they make an unforgivable mistake, and now they use it spontaneously without me asking.

Sucks to be a modern day slave, that's for sure.

lol

Too late. I built my own. AI DJs, incrementally goes out and builds my jazz collection, auto-tagging of meta data, news, scheduled programming and one vintage radio ad an hour ... took a few days. Plays over my 1938 radio. Literally the perfect radio station.

Analyst says debt spiral is imminent. But HY spreads are at 262bp (benign). Where's the funding stress? Analyst smoking grass or starting a religion, I'm not sure which

Analyst claims inflation going far higher. But 10Y breakevens are at 2.48% only 18bp over 4 weeks. Sure doesn't look to me like inflation is going far higher. The market agrees.

There were probably a few in the kitchen

Here's some alpha: fertilizer prices will continue to decline throughout the year.

But I was told by a very smart analyst that the global economy was going to be completely fucked by the end of April?