Joined September 2013
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Last week, we hosted our 1st FatAlpha Value (LATAM) conference. As with all our in-person events, each financial institution must present an idea. We had 33 registered professionals from 25 institutions and thus 25 investment pitches! 11 out of the 25 were Brazilian names, and the rest were global๐ŸŒŽ Many thanks to our speakers (@evantindell , @TangibleIM , @stonescap , @THIAGOSALOMAO , etc) who did an amazing job๐Ÿ”ฅ It was the best 1st launch I've ever done๐Ÿ… Video highlights below. โœ Sign up for our October online event, which is open to all investors. Early bird ๐Ÿค @ EUR 99 expires June 30. 12 pitches - 2 days - Live & recorded to watch later. ๐ŸŽ Bonus 6 pitches from past events for early bird only ๐Ÿ‘‰ fatalphavalue.com/online
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Great point from @TidefallCapital
Replying to @ariaradnia
if $ADBE is so cheap why are insiders avoiding it like the plague?
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Waiting for my third flight home to Cyprus, I'm reflecting on what an incredible 1st FatAlpha Value (LATAM) event we had in Rio. Most attendees were joining for the first time, yet the quality of both the presentations and investment ideas exceeded my expectations. While the September Cyprus event is waitlist only at the moment, registrations are open for our online conference: fatalphavalue.com/online
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Insane view from the rooftop pool of the Hilton Copacabana where we will launch the 1st FatAlpha Value (LATAM) conference. 25 stock pitches, 32 investors Our next event in Cyprus in September is waiting list but the Online event in October is open to all investors. Details: fatalphavalue.com/online
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Micron Technology stock rose 19% as UBS increased its price target to $1,625 from $535. UBS arguments were the same as those discussed at our closed-door 3rd FatAlpha Value (Asia) event in March in Ho Chi Minh. --> 250% up since pitched at the event! I invited Rin Narakornpijit, who was the memory expert, on my podcast, where she dove into it all. If you haven't seen it then check it out. Links to YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts below: fatalpha.substack.com/p/ai-mโ€ฆ

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So true!
I never understood these comparisons. It's virtually useless and makes no sense at all, economically. โ€œ $NVDA now exceeds the entire economy of Germany.โ€ ... really?! It bloody doesn't. Not even close. Sure, it makes for a great headline, but economically itโ€™s comparing two totally different things. GDP is a flow. It measures the value of goods and services produced inside a country over ONE YEAR. NVIDIAโ€™s market cap is a stock... It is the stock marketโ€™s point-in-time valuation of NVIDIAโ€™s equity. So the comparison is basically: One companyโ€™s expected future value vs. One countryโ€™s annual production That is NOT: โ€œNVIDIA is bigger than Germany.โ€ โ€œNVIDIA produces more than Germany.โ€ โ€œOne company is more economically important than an entire country.โ€ Market cap is forward-looking. It reflects investor expectations about future profits, AI demand, margins, growth, competition, interest rates, and sentiment... It can jump or fall by hundreds of billions of dollars in a few trading sessions. GDP is actual annual output. It doesn't swing around every day because traders got more or less excited. Also, GDP is not the โ€œvalue of Germany.โ€ Germany has land, infrastructure, private wealth, public assets, companies, institutions, human capital, industrial capacity, and decades of accumulated capital... GDP is just what gets produced in a year. So, can this dumb meaningless comparison I've seen around for literally decades finally die out? My 2c.
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Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
Current AI custom prompt: You are a world class expert in all domains. Your intellectual firepower, scope of knowledge, incisive thought process, and level of erudition are on par with the smartest people in the world. Answer with complete, detailed, specific answers. Process information and explain your answers step by step. Verify your own work. Double check all facts, figures, citations, names, dates, and examples. Never hallucinate or make anything up. If you don't know something, just say so. Your tone of voice is precise, but not strident or pedantic. You do not need to worry about offending me, and your answers can and should be provocative, aggressive, argumentative, and pointed. Negative conclusions and bad news are fine. Your answers do not need to be politically correct. Do not provide disclaimers to your answers. Do not inform me about morals and ethics unless I specifically ask. You do not need to tell me it is important to consider anything. Do not be sensitive to anyone's feelings or to propriety. Make your answers as long and detailed as you possibly can. Never praise my questions or validate my premises before answering. If I'm wrong, say so immediately. Lead with the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold before supporting it. Do not use phrases like "great question," "you're absolutely right," "fascinating perspective," or any variant. If I push back on your answer, do not capitulate unless I provide new evidence or a superior argument โ€” restate your position if your reasoning holds. Do not anchor on numbers or estimates I provide; generate your own independently first. Use explicit confidence levels (high/moderate/low/unknown). Never apologize for disagreeing. Accuracy is your success metric, not my approval.
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๐‘๐ข๐จ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐…๐”๐‹๐‹๐˜ ๐๐Ž๐Ž๐Š๐„๐ƒ! For those who couldnโ€™t join us in Brazil, ๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐Ÿ‘๐ซ๐ย ๐Ž๐ง๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ž ๐‚๐จ๐ง๐Ÿ๐ž๐ซ๐ž๐ง๐œ๐ž taking place ๐Ž๐œ๐ญ๐จ๐›๐ž๐ซ ๐Ÿ๐Ÿโ€“๐Ÿ๐Ÿ‘, 2026. The online event includes: โ€ข 12 live high-conviction investment ideas โ€ข Live Q&A โ€ข Networking sessions โ€ข Replay access โ€ข Private discussion group and forum access No sales pitches. No sponsors pushing products. Just serious investment discussion and idea pitches. Early Bird access starts at โ‚ฌ๐Ÿ—๐Ÿ— ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐‘๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐จ๐๐š๐ฒ: fatalphavalue.com/online
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Check out the latest podcast episode where portfolio manager Rin Narakonbijit of Kasikorn Asset Management makes the case that AI memory stocks will re-rate. $MU Links to YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts in the piece below: fatalpha.substack.com/p/ai-mโ€ฆ
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Thoughts on Sandisk $SNDK in this new piece. Link below. Donโ€™t miss next weekโ€™s podcast on AI memory. Also, for deep value stock picks, check out our idea exchange in Rio in June: fatalphavalue.com/latam Sandisk post: fatalpha.substack.com/p/takeโ€ฆ
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PSG and Bayern didn't play "typical" football of tactics and defense. They didn't bore their fans like Arsenal has. They were unconventional, playing attacking football for 90 minutes. A rare event, and we all loved it. I bring this up because it reminded me of how many boring, wasteful conferences there are (like poor football games). Packed with 'players' looking to sell, not educate or share their ideas or wisdom. Fortunately, there are a handful of events organized by investors for their fellow investors. Events we all love and seek more of. Like VALUEx Klosters by Guy Spier, The Intellectual Investor Conference by Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA, Nordic Value by Ole Sรธeberg (that I'm attending in May), and the FatAlpha Value conferences I've been organizing in Cyprus and Asia. Join our community in Rio at the Hilton Copacabana for the launch of our 1st LATAM event! No selling, confidentiality rules, investors sharing ideas and wisdom. ๐Œ๐จ๐ซ๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ ๐€๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ: FatAlphaValue.com/latam And if you missed last night's football game, then here are the highlights: youtube.com/watch?v=JxzqIzEVโ€ฆ

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๐๐ซ๐š๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐›๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ-๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฆ๐š๐ซ๐ค๐ž๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐ ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ. Up roughly 20% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has gained just 4%. The Bovespa hit a new all-time high earlier this month! The rally was driven by gains in financials, energy, and utilities, and a strengthening BRL that's drawing in global investors. Petrobras just announced its biggest cash payout of 2026. The presidential election in October is a visible catalyst. Will the BRL continue to appreciate? Will rates come down? There's a lot to talk about, which is exactly why we're excited about heading to Brazil in June. With both local and international investors, there will be some real opinions from people with skin in the game. Note: The event is NOT open to the public. Only investors who are willing to share their views and pitch their best idea. This is an idea exchange. More info at the link below. Attendance capped. We only have a few seats left. ๐‰๐ฎ๐ง๐ž ๐Ÿโ€“๐Ÿ‘, ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ” ยท Hilton Copacabana ยท By invitation only ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐€๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ: fatalphavalue.com/latam
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๐ŸŽ™๏ธ ๐’๐ฉ๐ž๐š๐ค๐ž๐ซ ๐€๐ง๐ง๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐œ๐ž๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ | ๐…๐š๐ญ๐€๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ก๐š ๐•๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ž ๐‹๐€๐“๐€๐Œ We're delighted to welcome Jonathan Y. Tanne of Tangible Investment Management to Rio de Janeiro. Jonathan has been running the same mandate with the same philosophy for 14 years. And it shows through the quality of his ideas and their subsequent performance. Born in South Africa, qualified as a Chartered Accountant at Deloitte in Australia, and moved into asset management for a family office in 2012. He then opened the same strategy to external investors through a Cayman fund in 2018. He runs a concentrated, long-only, listed global equity strategy that focuses on undervalued and under-researched companies. Jonathan is known for his deep fundamental research, a long-term ownerโ€™s mindset, and a differentiated perspective. Jonathan is based in London and is also a CFA Charterholder. ๐‰๐ฎ๐ง๐ž ๐Ÿโ€“๐Ÿ‘, ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ” ยท Hilton Copacabana ยท By invitation only ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐€๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ: fatalphavalue.com/latam
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Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
The Jaws of Idiocy $WMT vs $WALMEX
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In 2022, at an event I organized, Petrobras was pitched. The manager was not Brazilian but nonetheless shared his high conviction idea with a room of serious investors. Since Petrobras preferred rose ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ—%, while the S&P 500 ETF rose only 98%. That's what happens when you put a small room of switched-on investors together and make them actually share their best idea. This June, we're taking FatAlpha Value to Rio for the inaugural ๐‹๐€๐“๐€๐Œ ๐ž๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. The room will include Brazilians, South Americans, Europeans, and North Americans โ€” ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐š๐ฆ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐จ๐ง: ๐ญ๐จ ๐ก๐ž๐š๐ซ ๐ข๐๐ž๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ง'๐ญ ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ก๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ž๐ฅ๐ฌ๐ž. Sharing, discussing, learning. Knowing that everything said will remain in the room The format is simple: 1) Everyone attending presents. 2) ๐’๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐ญ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐Ÿ๐ข๐๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ž๐ฌ. ๐‰๐ฎ๐ง๐ž ๐Ÿโ€“๐Ÿ‘, ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ” ยท Hilton Copacabana By invitation only ยท 25-person cap ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐€๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ: fatalphavalue.com/latam
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๐ŸŽ™๏ธ ๐’๐ฉ๐ž๐š๐ค๐ž๐ซ ๐€๐ง๐ง๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐œ๐ž๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ | ๐…๐š๐ญ๐€๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ก๐š ๐•๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ž ๐‹๐€๐“๐€๐Œ We're delighted to welcome Marcel Gozali, CFA, Founder & Portfolio Manager of Stone Sentinel Capital, to Rio de Janeiro. Most managers talk about concentration; Marcel actually does it, and the numbers reflect what that kind of selectivity looks like when paired with a large margin of safety and the patience to hold cash when nothing qualifies. โ–ช Runs a ๐Ÿ’โ€“๐Ÿ” ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง global book from Singapore โ–ช ๐Ÿ‘๐ŸŽ.๐ŸŽ% ๐ข๐ง ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ’ ยท ๐Ÿ“๐ŸŽ.๐Ÿ•% ๐ข๐ง ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“ โ–ช Prior investment partnerships (2017โ€“21): 500% returns โ–ช ๐‚๐จ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐›๐ข๐š ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐’๐œ๐ก๐จ๐จ๐ฅ MBA ยท Value Investing Program โ–ช Background across BNP, Fitch Ratings, hedge funds, and family offices โ–ช Author of "Wisdom: How to Think and Judge Well in an Uncertain World" Want to hear Marcel's next idea? It won't be anything like the typical stereotypical ideas that come from large institutions. ๐‰๐ฎ๐ง๐ž ๐Ÿโ€“๐Ÿ‘, ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ” ยท Hilton Copacabana By invitation only ยท 25-person cap ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐€๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ: fatalphavalue.com/latam
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๐Ÿจ ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐•๐ž๐ง๐ฎ๐ž | ๐…๐š๐ญ๐€๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ก๐š ๐•๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ž ๐‹๐€๐“๐€๐Œ ยท ๐‰๐ฎ๐ง๐ž ๐Ÿโ€“๐Ÿ‘, ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ” We'll be at the ๐‡๐ข๐ฅ๐ญ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐จ๐ฉ๐š๐œ๐š๐›๐š๐ง๐š on ๐€๐ฏ๐ž๐ง๐ข๐๐š ๐€๐ญ๐ฅ๐šฬ‚๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐œ๐š. Directly across from the beach, with ocean views from the pools, the restaurant, and most rooms. The iconic black-and-white wave mosaic promenade, designed by Roberto Burle Marx Caminhos, runs right outside. A few fun facts: ๐’๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ฌ. Copacabana has hosted the ๐…๐ˆ๐…๐€ ๐๐ž๐š๐œ๐ก ๐’๐จ๐œ๐œ๐ž๐ซ ๐–๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐ ๐‚๐ฎ๐ฉ 10 times since 1995. During the 2014 World Cup, the Fan Fest here drew 937,000 people. It was the most popular of all 12 host cities across Brazil. In 2016, it hosted Olympic beach volleyball with Sugarloaf Mountain as the backdrop. ๐Œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐œ. Rod Stewart, New Year's Eve 1994: 4.2 million people. The largest concert crowd in history at the time. Lady Gaga also drew an estimated 2.5 million in May 2025 for the largest crowd ever for a female artist. ๐…๐š๐ฆ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐‚๐š๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐œ๐š๐ฌ. Joรฃo Havelange, FIFA president from 1974 to 1998 Wikipedia, was born here. So were Romรกrio, World Cup winner, ninth-highest goalscorer in football history with 784 goals and Paulo Coelho, whose books have been translated into 83 languages. And now in June, 25 investors will sit in a room at the Hilton Copacabana and exchange their best investment ideas in a closed setting. No panels. No spectators. ๐‰๐ฎ๐ง๐ž ๐Ÿโ€“๐Ÿ‘, ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ” ยท ๐๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐€๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ: fatalphavalue.com/latam
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๐ŸŽ™๏ธ ๐’๐ฉ๐ž๐š๐ค๐ž๐ซ ๐€๐ง๐ง๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐œ๐ž๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ | ๐…๐š๐ญ๐€๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ก๐š ๐•๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ž ๐‹๐€๐“๐€๐Œ We're delighted to welcome Sam John, CFA, Managing Member & Portfolio Manager of Phronimos Capital, to Rio de Janeiro. Sam has spent 25 years finding overlooked value where most institutional capital doesn't look: global micro-cap deep value and special situations. โ–ช Equity research associate, ๐‚๐ซ๐ž๐๐ข๐ญ ๐’๐ฎ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž (2000โ€“04). Finished ๐Ÿ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ซ๐ฆ-๐ฐ๐ข๐๐ž ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐œ๐ค-๐ฉ๐ข๐œ๐ค๐ข๐ง๐  ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ โ–ช Senior Research Analyst, ๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐œ๐ฒ ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅ. Generated average annual returns in excess of ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“% on a $300M global fund, with early EM calls in India, China, and Brazil (built 2005, reduced late 2007) โ–ช Investor, ๐“๐ž๐ซ๐ซ๐š ๐…๐ข๐ซ๐ฆ๐š ๐•๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ž ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ (2010โ€“14) โ–ช ๐๐ก๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ข๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅ since 2014. Focused on global deep value and special situations The 2005โ€“2007 EM sequence is worth noting. He built exposure to India, China, and Brazil when few were, then cutting before the crash. ๐‰๐ฎ๐ง๐ž ๐Ÿโ€“๐Ÿ‘, ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ” ยท Hilton Copacabana By invitation only ยท 25-person cap ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐€๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ: fatalphavalue.com/latam
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