Here to share my own research & analysis, and to promote @FNArena. Expect to be challenged in your convictions, assuming you're sufficiently open-minded ;)

Joined April 2011
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Stuff you cannot make up: "ASX Limited (ASX) has admitted that its 10 February 2022 market announcement which stated that the CHESS replacement project was “progressing well” was misleading and exposed market participants to the risk of financial harm." #XJO
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
A bold new strategy from Treasury Wine Estates $TWE seems familiar, and execution risk leads to a mostly cautious approach from brokers buff.ly/mgFWeu5 #stockinfocus #investing #equities #XJO
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
FNArena's Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts. Today's idea is REA Group $REA buff.ly/ll78ixR #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing #property
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"This week's In Brief focuses on the growth outlook for emerging producers Rox (gold) and Hillgrove (copper), and an improving booking trend for Helloworld despite the ongoing Middle East conflict." @FNArena $HLO $RXL $HL0 In Brief: Helloworld, Rox & Hillgrove Resources fnarena.com/index.php/2026/0…
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The year is 2028, the war that isn't a war will be concluded "any day now" as Iran is "under immense pressure, they are so desperate, they need a deal". When queried about his plan to end the war in Ukraine on day one the President shoots back: "I never said that. Don't put words in my mouth. You're an ugly person." When asked about inflation, his response: It was much higher under Sleepy Joe's. I did kill it. It's just that the fake news won't accept it. They hate me! Cabinet meetings still start with openings like "this is the greatest presidency in the history of this country. It's led by a true genius playing 5D chess". He doesn't go for a third term though and triumphantly declares: I never lost an election! Never!
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S&P500. Momentum and swings in Momentum now characterise equities in 2026
There have been 24,708 trading days since 1928. On only 48 of them has the RSI fallen more than 36 points in six trading days. Today is one of those 48 days.
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
I knew the stock market would finally crash. This is why I’ve been in cash since 2005
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
What keeps me awake at night? This. This is one of the oldest froth gauges on Wall Street: the year-over-year change in margin debt. How fast investors are borrowing money to buy stocks. When it crosses 55%, optimism has gone rampant and people are loading up on leverage in the late innings of a bull market. It has flagged every major top since the 1970s. 1972. 2000. 2007. 2021. Today it sits at 53.34%. Not 55 yet. But knocking on the door. And it doesn't sit alone. Look at everything else lighting up at the same time: – Margin debt as a share of GDP just hit an all-time high – 70% of BofA's market-peak signals are triggered, the average seen at prior tops – South Koreans are cashing out insurance policies at a loss to chase the rally – Momentum is beating quality by the most since December 1999 – The largest IPO in history is hitting the tape this week So to answer the question directly. Is everybody nuts? Not nuts. Just leveraged, optimistic, and quietly convinced it's different this time. Which is exactly what the late stage of every cycle feels like from the inside. Froth is never a timing tool. The market can stay irrational, and margin debt can push well past 55%, for far longer than feels possible. People made fortunes in 1999 buying with both hands. But here's the part worth remembering. Leverage feels like genius on the way up. It is the thing that turns a normal correction into a forced liquidation on the way down. The borrowed money always gets called back. Usually at the worst possible moment. #IBDPartner
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Pimco: "After years of effortless returns, the default cycle is reasserting itself, and we expect significantly higher losses in lower-quality credit such as leveraged and private direct lending. "We view this as the beginning of a secular trend where quality and credit selection will matter more than ever." #investing #bonds
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"Are forecasters ringing the bell on real estate stalwart $REA following what some analysts have described as the most significant government policy change to Australia’s property and housing market in some thirty years?" @FNArena Treasure Chest: REA Group fnarena.com/index.php/2026/0…
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Ossoff: Last September, the President of Kazakhstan calls Donald Trump and says he wants to grant tungsten mining rights to an American company. And the very next month, Eric and Don Jr. get a stake in the American company pursuing the mining deal. Six days later, six days after Prince Eric and Prince Don get their stake, Kazakhstan announces this company will get, “The largest known undeveloped tungsten resource in the world.” A few more weeks go by, and then the U.S. government, run by their father, sets aside 1.6 billion of your tax dollars to fund and finance their mining project. In Kazakhstan. All this while you pay more for gas, for groceries, for health care, and that's just the tip of the iceberg.
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"FNArena’s Danielle Ecuyer interviewed Editor @Filapek about how AI is reshaping both financial markets and the world as we know it." @FNArena Happy viewing folks! youtu.be/Xyw02XFryKI?si=meNo…
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Momentum on display (as well as market polarisation) #investing #equities #stocks
Charts of Tech sector internals are as eye-opening as it gets. Bookmark it because you don't see this often...
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"This week's In Brief shines a light on Maritana Minerals with positive assay results; Tasmea's Maxim acquisition, and a guidance upgrade for SRG Global." @FNArena $MRT $TEA $SRG In Brief: Maritana, Tasmea & SRG Global fnarena.com/index.php/2026/0…
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Citi on Megaport $MP1: "Latitude’s contract win rate over the past two months has been exceptional, driven by Megaport leveraging its balance sheet, data centre footprint and network to secure sizeable deals. "We reiterate our Buy call and upgrade our target price by 41% to $22.10, reflecting material earnings changes. "While medium-term earnings risks are rising, the large contracts offer attractive economics, with payback periods under 2.5 years. "In addition, the equity raise positions Megaport with a net cash balance." #XJO #equities #investing #stockinfocus
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Meanwhile ... retail investors across the globe... don't care, gimme stock in the hottest IPOs of the year!
Moral of the story - do NOT chase hot IPOs Year-1 average drawdown = 55% Year-1 median drawdown = 54% Table: Truist
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