Why Marcos’ Presidency Is Entering Its Most Unstable Phase Yet
1/
The newest WRN numbers confirm it:
Marcos’ presidency is now underwater.
Satisfaction collapsed from 66% → 21%, while dissatisfaction surged to 47%.
That’s a –26 net rating, the worst of his term — and it happened fast.
2/
The trend line is brutal:
The crossover happened February 2025, when dissatisfaction overtook satisfaction.
Since then, the numbers never recovered.
This isn’t a dip — it’s structural decline.
3/
Compare this to VP Sara Duterte:
43% positive vs Marcos’ 21%.
She beats him in all regions except NCR, in all income classes, and even among pro-Marcos voters.
4/
The real takeaway:
The Duterte bloc and the Marcos bloc are now fully independent factions.
WRN data shows the pro-Duterte base is 79% pro-Sara — while Marcos doesn’t control them anymore.
5/
Marcos is now the most politically isolated president since Gloria in 2005.
The coalition that brought him to power has fractured into three competing groups:
• Marcos camp
• Duterte camp
• “Administrative independents” inside government
6/
The flood-control scandal economic slowdown accelerated the decline.
But the deeper problem is this:
Marcos never built a loyal base independent of his 2022 coalition.
7/
The numbers show the danger:
• NCR: hostile
• Rest of Luzon: split
• Visayas/Mindanao: leaning Sara
• Seniors: anti-Marcos
• Youth: apathetic
This is a president running out of political oxygen.
8/
Meanwhile, Sara Duterte holds a 20-point net positive, dominates Mindanao at 75%, and remains competitive in the Visayas and Luzon.
She has options.
Marcos increasingly does not.
9/
As 2028 approaches, Marcos will face:
• hostile public opinion
• fragmented political elites
• unstable cabinet
• competition from his own original coalition
• an economic environment he cannot control
10/
Forecast:
The final half of Marcos’ term will be defined by political paralysis, elite fragmentation, and declining public trust.
Expect more cabinet reshuffles, more narrative resets, and more attempts to shift blame — including toward the Duterte bloc.
11/
One thing is clear:
The 2028 race won’t be between “administration vs opposition.”
It will be a three-corner war:
Marcos faction vs Duterte faction vs genuine opposition.
12/
WRN data points to a scenario where:
• Marcos enters 2028 extremely weak
• Sara Duterte remains viable
• Opposition can consolidate if they avoid 2022’s mistakes
• Independents (largest bloc) will decide the election
13/
The next 30 months will be the most turbulent of the Marcos presidency.
The numbers don’t lie — the decline is not stopping.
If anything, it’s accelerating.