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Using 2029 forward multiples to value a business is ridiculous.
$SPCX, $ASTS, these names are absurdly expensive. You can buy them anyway... but to use 3 years from now as a way to measure the price today makes little sense.
I'll happily take $META over any of these names.
HOW THE SPACE BIG 4 STACK UP
1. $SPCX (The Backbone of Orbit)
• 3-year revenue CAGR 67% trading at 120x 2029 net income
• Handles ~90% of global payload mass to orbit with 10.3M Starlink subscribers across 160 countries
2. $RKLB (Vertically Integrated Defense Prime)
• 3-year revenue CAGR 30% trading at 80x 2029 net income
• Second-most-launched US rocket operator with 50 successful Electron flights & $2.2B contracted backlog
3. $ASTS (Tower in the Sky)
• 3-year revenue CAGR 156% trading at 11x 2029 net income
• Nearly 60 MNO partners covering 3B subscribers targeting ~45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by EOY
4. $PL (Eyes From Above)
• 3-year revenue CAGR 25% trading at 105x 2029 net income
• Daily imaging of Earth's entire landmass with a $900M backlog & 116% net dollar retention
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For a deeper breakdown of my buys and sells and portfolio update this week:
x.com/i/status/2065840598943…
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Honestly, yes. $V is trading at a good price today. But I'm not buying simply because there are so many other great deals in the market.
I'm buying heavy in $META, $ADBE, and $FOUR today.
$V is trading at 10 year low forward PE of 23x
Historically, buying at these levels have outperformed the market by around 1.5-2x
Will history repeat itself?
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Nevermind. Iranian officials are stating they are not going to be signing an agreement on Sunday...
At this point, I don't even know what to expect. I guess we will see tomorrow.
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Finally good news. I wonder how the market will react on Monday.
My portfolio is primed for a solid run when tensions and inflation ease.
$META, $BN, $ADBE, $FOUR, $QLYS, $CROX
BREAKING: President Trump says Iran is expected to sign a nuclear deal tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz will immediately reopen to all traffic.
Trump also says the U.S. will destroy Iran’s remaining nuclear material “if necessary.”
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June 13 Portfolio Update is live!
Trimmed $BN and $CROX
Added to $ADBE and $META
Full details in Article:
x.com/FindleysFinance/status…
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Jun 13
Now that $SPCX has officially hit the market, how long do you think it'll be before the share price dips below $135?
Or do you think it's all up from here?
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Jun 12
$SPCX finished the day up massively at $2.11 trillion.
For a company with less than $14 billion in revenue, this is an extremely high price. Good luck to those who bought it!
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FindleysFinance retweeted
Jun 12
Using earnings to measure $META's valuation in the midst of a massive CapEx cycle isn't the best way to value the business.
I use OCF and Meta currently trades at 11.67x OCF, historical average is 17x.
Meta trades at 20.7x earnings.
The 10Y average is 26.9x.
If the market simply valued Meta at its historical average, the stock would be worth roughly $740.
$META
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FindleysFinance retweeted
Jun 12
$CROX was dirt cheap when I was buying heavy under $100/share. But now, it trades close to fair value.
Not a bad buy, but I'm trimming to build other positions that offer a better opportunity.
Over the next 5 years if $CROX can achieve:
- OCF growth of 4% (Higher than current growth)
- P/OCF of 10x
- Discount Rate of 10%
- 5% annual share repurchases
Then the company could realistically return 11.8% CAGR to share price. I am considering exiting the position to put more money in $ADBE, $META, and $FOUR at current levels.
I have an average buy price of $84.94/share and made 48% returns on the position which was worth roughly $40k last week. I've already trimmed $10k this week.
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