Stop celebrating calling $60K the bottom for Bitcoin. We’re nowhere near the real bottom.
Bitcoin’s Realized Price (average cost basis of all holders) right now is $55,244. Current price of $70K is 27% above the average holder’s cost basis.
1- In 2022, BTC bottomed at $15,476 which was 34% below Realized Price of $23,340.
2- In 2018, BTC bottomed at $3,200 which was 47% below Realized Price.
3- The same pattern repeated in 2015.
The rule is simple. Bear markets don’t bottom above the Realized Price. They bottom 30-50% below it.
If history repeats, 30% below $55K gives us $38,500. That’s exactly what my prediction for next Bitcoin bottom is.
We’re nowhere near true capitulation. The real bottom comes when Bitcoin crashes through Realized Price and stays there for months. Bottoms are never V-shaped recoveries, they’re long, painful and form after months of consolidation.