Researching energy and defence. Physics and data science background. Happy getting into the weeds.

Joined March 2025
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This is the story of how a fund chaired by former Labor PM Julia Gillard acquired a wind farm project just six days before Labor Energy Minister Chris Bowen underwrote its future revenues with taxpayer money. Today we've learned Julia's fund is trying to flip it. For a profit. HMC Capital's 'Energy Transition Fund' rushed to acquire the Neoen Victoria portfolio. They hadn't even raised any money in their fund. They closed with almost a billion dollars worth of borrowed money and IOU's. Less than a week later, Chris Bowen announced Kentbruck Wind Farm to be successful in the first round of the Capacity Investment Scheme. My rough calculations suggest they will receive something like a billion dollars from taxpayers (and maybe much more) over 15 years. Sweet deal. A billion dollars of fancy financial monopoly money one week. A billion dollars of promised taxpayer dollars the next. I want to emphasise that I have no evidence of anything illegal or improper taking place. Rather, I want to point out how odious and repugnant the official, proper, legal business of renewable energy has become. Yesterday Chris Bowen announced he wanted to supersize the CIS subsidy scheme, yet again. Today Ross Garnaut seemed to cheer this on, whilst pointing out "There are now virtually no new investment commitments for solar and wind generation that do not have CIS or other Government underwriting," What happened to a sense of propriety? Since when do we celebrate people rushing to put their snouts in the trough? Or rushing to fill the trough even higher? Unlike the UK who publish a 'going rate' for technology subsidies, our renewables are subsidised through a secret tender process. Every project gets to ask for whatever revenue they want to proceed. @AEMO_Energy facilitates a secret beauty pageant, where they award points for things like indigenous participation or community engagement, alongside financial value. And Chris Bowen makes the final call. The bids remain secret. There's no cap to the pay-outs. Since AEMO is a private company, there is no scope for an FOI request, and AEMO aren't not subject to parliamentary oversight through Senate Estimates. So no-one can ever prove an allegation that Bowen has bestowed special favour on a friend's project if that was what he did. But equally, he can never prove that he selected strictly according to merit. We are just expected to trust the black-box of Bowen's subsidies. So I'm going to say out loud, with full voice, that I hope everyone can agree on: If this is what the future of 'clean energy' looks like in Australia, it looks absolutely FILTHY. Any firm that talks about ESG seriously should start taking the "G" a bit more seriously and steer clear of projects that thrust their snouts into Bowen's hopelessly opaque, bottomless trough of government funds. Or at the very least, purge their boards and senior leadership of all the former Labor staffers, donors, and industry lobbyists who have had a hand in designing the trough, and filling it up. The reality is that there are no natural profits to be made in generating renewable electricity in Australia. Every dollar of profit in this industry is really a cheque signed by a politician, with Chris Bowen signing all the biggest cheques, worth untold billions, in the next three years. It's all legal. It's all official. And it's absolutely obscene. Mega-thread below. (It'll come in stages) 1/
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“Thoughtful centrism of the Smart Energy Council” 🤨 Really Andrew… dishing out $7bn in subsidies to people who can also afford ~$15k upfront for batteries? That’s centrism? And what has worked around the world? Other than nuclear and hydro? How’s Germany? The UK?
Drawing on what's worked overseas, and the thoughtful centrism of the Smart Energy Council, this 86-page book is packed with practical ideas about how to "build a broader coalition in support of climate action" #auspolreaders
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This is the Smart Energy Council:
This is insane. John Grimes of @SmartEnergyCncl must be the most successful lobbyist in history. Having crafted a scheme that blew its $2.3bn budget - meant to last at least 4 years in under 1, he locks in another $5bn on top. And delays changes to slow the blow-out for another 4.5 months. Any responsible minister, on becoming aware of a design flaw leading to the system being rorted by would surely stem the flow immediately. Not Bowen. He’s giving them a grace period before any disruption to the gravy train. A move which will probably cost taxpayers at least an extra billion or so. And probably result in yet another blow-out of even this planned budget. smartenergy.org.au/half-of-a…
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This is funny… Australians don’t believe our Energy Minister when he jawbones the energy transition. But we might believe… 🥁 “The next COP President”. 😂😂 They either believe we’re stupid, or that the trappings international institutions makes dumb ideas sound smart.
Australia can switch from fossil fuel exports to renewables, says next Cop president theguardian.com/environment/…
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It’s not even about climate anymore. And it’s barely about economics. Or rather, the economic plea is based on following the rest of the world!? 🤨 Ignoring the reality of industry collapsing, productivity declines… Bowen’s head is clearly stuck in his UN La-La land.
Chris Bowen is lost in the wilderness and he is taking Australia with him. The people in his electorate of McMahon are struggling to keep up and he works to set them back further. The community has suffered enough.
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Aidan Morrison retweeted
Brilliant presentation Aidan, your skill at communicating complex energy issues and making them easy to understand is unbelievable. Communities are now more educated than most political representatives as a direct result of your determination, care and concern. Thank you
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Update!! 🔔🚨 This talk I gave up at Walcha a few weeks ago has now been published by @JohnAndersonAC on his channel. Very glad to share this experience, where my ivory tower economic analysis meets the faces of farmers being trampled by transmission. Link in reply.
Last Sunday I gave a talk at Walcha, explaining my take on the economics of the power lines this community would have crossing through their plateau. The room was packed. 120 seats full and a couple dozen standing. I love doing things like this. The locals get it. 1/
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Here’s the episode! Enjoy.
Replying to @FootnotesGuy
Full episode here: youtu.be/KKZnXLM69zU
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Aidan Morrison retweeted
The Renewable Lie: How Australia Was Sold a False Promise | @FootnotesGuy & Chris Uhlmann Episode out now.
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This article from @mcranston1 is doing the rounds. So needs a 🧵to look into the source document from the Productivity Commission (PC). The PC have really tried (and thankfully failed) to whitewash this damning but predictable result, claiming the benefits are coming soon. 1/
The replacement of coal plants with billions of dollars in renewable energy projects linked to our decline as Australians work harder for less. Read more: bit.ly/4vP5mk9
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The conclusion of this little feature from the PC is an exhibit of institutional capture. Having found irrefutable evidence that the energy transition is destroying productivity, they still urge it on, with aimless nods in basically every direction in which they perceive some glimmer of hope. The Ministerial Council Mechanism (No doubt the Energy Services Entry Mechanism, from the Nelson Review) will "warehouse risk" with the taxpayer and completely short-circuit any actual market-based signal which the PC says should be embraced. (Because those market signals are correct, and saying these projects are uninvestable.) They would know that. This is appalling. Then there's typical airheaded optimism about electric vehicle charging being able to be shifted around to match the weather, rather than consumer needs. Then the really serious stuff, like a "strike team" and "Co-ordinator General" to get the productivity-destroying investments to move ahead faster. If only we could rely on the Productivity Commission to be actually committed to... you know... something objectively good, like... maybe productivity? Whilst I applaud Matt for getting an excellent story that cuts through, the betrayal we should be worried about isn't so much from the politicians ignoring trusted institutions, but the supposedly trusted institutions, bending over backwards to defend the indefensible in the politicians' agendas. 18/
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To finish, just one more plug for Chris Uhlmann's brilliant Powerlines substack, and this piece he wrote calling out exactly this problem when the PC produced its major cheer-piece for the energy transition in August. 19/19 powerlines.au/p/from-watchdo…
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