90% of the soldiers on the first boats to hit the beach didn't live to see the end of the day. Look at those faces. Some of them never made it to 18. Never forget that they paid the ultimate price for our freedom. We live our lives the way we do because of them.

@evfcfaddict got hacked and is having trouble getting help from @X. Be extra careful about which links you click on. #helpandy

Some quick observations on the Fairfax AGM $FFH.TO. While it’s painful to travel from Australia to get there, the availability of management before and after the meeting combined with hanging out with the amazing shareholders makes the trip a must. No great revelations regarding the numbers this year, but the trip was rewarding in handicapping the tails on the thesis. Left Tail Compression 1/ Prem was beaming. He was doing the rounds before the AGM and dropped by the Meadow Foods stand while I was there. Big smile, handshakes all round. Healthy, happy, engaged, and no doubt enjoying “the plan coming together”. If Thursday was anything to go by he will be around for years to come. 2/ Succession is deep and real, not theoretical. Peter Clarke ran half the AGM presentation. Brian Young ramping at the insurance group. Wade Burton confirmed as investment succession. 3/ Cats. 1-in-250 PML of $3.5B now fits inside $4B of annual earnings. Peter Clarke confirmed this is the first time in Fairfax’s history. A big cat costs a year of earnings, not capital. 4/ Reserves holding. 19 consecutive years of favorable development. 2.9 points favorable in 2025 alone. The rumours from the dark corners of the internet of skeletons in the closet remain just that. 5/ No top-line incentive. Prem and Brian Young both explicit at the AGM. No Fairfax company is compensated for premium growth. Everything is bottom-line. Structurally immunizes against the classic soft-market blowup. Pencil sharpeners for all and an explicit job security message to boot. 6/ Liquidity stack is substantial. $2.7B holdco cash and investments. $2B undrawn credit facility. No near-term debt maturities for three years. The 2008 replay has a ready buyer, not a forced seller. 7/ Fixed income conservatively placed but ready to move at scale and speed when opportunity presents. Kleven Sava alongside Brian Bradstreet fielding questions post-AGM was great to see. Right Tail Expansion 8/ $5B operating income run-rate with 3-4 year visibility. $2.5B interest and dividend, $1.5B underwriting, $1B associates. Around $150 EPS pre-gains. First time management has put a hard floor on the number. 9/ Float is $40B, around $2,000 per share, compounded at 18% since inception. Cost-of-float has been negative 4.5% over five years. Fairfax is paid to hold the float. That is the engine. 10/ Crystallization is active. Poseidon half-sold at $28.30 for $865M pretax gain. Excess fair value on associates now $4.2B pretax, around $200 per share. A decent chunk of dry powder just became available. 11/ International scaling is real. Bright (South Africa) 20%, Colonnade 18%, Asia 15%, Polish Re 15%. The $6B international premium base is now larger than all of Fairfax 15 years ago. 12/ Decentralization let Fairfax double premium from 2016 to 2022 almost entirely organically. 26 companies on the ground. Each independently doubled into the hard market. When the next hard market arrives, the structure is larger, geographically diversified, and the runway longer. As I said at the outset no major revelations but the trip was worth it just to shrink my view of the left tail.

Here is my top 5 what is yours?

Hier et aujourd’hui deux belles déclarations d’achat d’Odet sur BOL. Aujourd’hui au prix max de 4,86€.

If I were Bolloré (which I am not!) I would keep buying Bolloré and Odet shares especially as I benefit from the mother daughter tax regime so tax leakage will be very low with the exceptionnal dividend. The joy of the self controlling loops! What goes around come around!!