We know teams down 3-1 in a NHL playoff series win the comeback just ~9% of the time. Approximately 360 series all-time.
Last ~22 Years(2004 –2026)
In that span, 14 teams pulled it off.
The Canadiens did it 4 times — 2004 vs Boston, 2010 vs Washington, 2014 vs Boston & 2021 vs Toronto — Habs hold the record. All four wins on the road.
By no means is the suggestion here that the Habs will pull off a comeback against this juggernaut Canes team.
It is noteworthy, however, that teams up 3 - 1 in a series coming home to play Game 5 win 55% of the time and 57% when they've won Game 4 to go up 3-1.
Habs are 4-2 in their last six Game 5 road appearances. The two losses were elimination games.
Finally, this Canadiens team has played .700 on the road all season including the playoffs and has pleasantly surprised its fans countless times this year.