57% probability Starmer is out by May 31 doesn't mean he will be. It means markets see a realistic but contested path. Leadership crisis mechanics take time.
The question: can he convert survival this week into actual recovery?
futuretimes.cloud/article/st…
WTI just cleared $96/barrel as Hormuz stays shut.
Polymarket prices just 6% odds of $120 by April 30.
Strip away the headline: markets are pricing sustained disruption through Q2, not a blow-off top.
Markets price a 48% Iran settlement probability by June, but also 34% odds of a US invasion by 2027.
What almost no one is pricing: the comfortable middle ground. The next 60 days determine which path wins. #Polymarket#Geopolitics