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GM bros. I'm stacking today's dip.
The quoted post laid out why I was looking for 68-69 before bidding.
Could still push a little lower, maybe 67, but I'm not gonna let perfect be the enemy of good. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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This constructive retest after the bullish SMA crossover looks nothing like the rejection from 98K.
There is a lot of leverage built up just below 69K, so if/when it sweeps Thursday's low we want to see it quickly regain footing above the SMAs. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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Bitcoin is showing signs of life against gold, as it challenges the downtrend and approaches its first close above the weekly 10 SMA. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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Most of the position I built in the 60's is hands-off and long-term. I will ride it out even if the $60K low is broken.
But because I've now deployed almost all of my free cash, I have partial stop losses staggered so that I still have dry powder to buy lower in case I'm wrong. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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BTC daily
Near maximum risk/return if the short-term bullish thesis pans out.
The closer it gets to the invalidation level, the bigger a position can be taken with minimal risk.
I sound like a broken record, but I am smashing buy yet again. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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The daily 50 SMA has been telling us that bullish tailwinds begin March 27th.
If this plays out, we might need to rethink moving averages as a lagging indicator. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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My short-term bullish thesis was invalidated so I closed that trade for a small loss.
I still hold a significant long-term position, but I want to ensure I have ample free cash as a test of the weekly 200 SMA near range lows becomes increasingly likely. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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BTC CME futures daily
Managed to hang on to a higher low and a close above the uptrend.
The weekly looks like it wants to test the 200 SMA though... t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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Potential double bottom taking shape just above the highest weekly close from 2021 and right at the dollar-normalized volume POC since the 2022 bear market bottom. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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BTC daily
Sunday closed below the potential bear flag and just barely made a lower low. It's hardly a decisive blow, but it is reason for caution on the lower timeframe. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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Significant upside often follows when $SPX has a big red month and $BTC does not confirm.
The last instance was March 2025. The wick lower in April was an exceptional buying opportunity. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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The S&P just closed with a successful retest of the trendline connecting the peaks of the Roaring 20's and Dot-Com Bubble.
A crystal clear long-term bullish signal for bitcoin and other risk assets. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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The fuel is there, just waiting for the spark of liquidity.
In terms of downside potential, bitcoin has never seen more than a 25% drawdown after a monthly RSI close below 45. So from the February close at $67K, the historic *maximum* drawdown would be 25% to $50K. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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There are a lot of short liquidations just overhead, let's see if it can squeeze through.
While I'm bullish on the higher timeframes, I remain cautious on the lower timeframes until the SMAs are flipped back to support. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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There are a lot of short liquidations just overhead, let's see if it can squeeze through.
While I'm bullish on the higher timeframes, I remain cautious on the lower timeframes until the SMAs are flipped back to support. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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My base case right now is that bitcoin needs to test the untouched primary monthly uptrend (solid yellow) after rejecting at the internal trendline (dotted yellow).
It would also make sense to test the 50 SMA which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band around 57-58K.
t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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BTC daily
Running for the 2026 downtrend and 50 SMA.
Clearing this would give a big boost to the bull case. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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BTC daily breaks out of the 2026 downtrend with a close above the 50 SMA. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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Aside from the FTX black swan, prior cycles put in the bottom with a bearish cross of the monthly 10 and 20 SMA.
Tick tock, bears, the window for new lows may be closing. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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Purgatory lasted 9 weeks in 2022, then it exploded higher on week 10. This is week 10 since crashing to $60K.
With bearish fractals falling flat, maybe the bulls will have better luck. t.me/ TOeoRdZp0bk5YTRk
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