Joined April 2022
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Have said this downturn (or whatever you want to call it) will essentially be a 'white collar recession'. To date, layoffs have been almost entirely in WC workforce which is UNIQUE in 🇺🇸 History. All previous slowdowns/recessions have started in BC workforce & bled into WC.
Are you too expensive? Are you too human? 👇 I used to say: Don’t worry about ageism. (so many posts and videos on this) I helped 55 land great jobs all the time. I don’t say that anymore. The last 18 months have been brutal. People with 15–25 years at one company? CUT. I'll call it for what it is: • They make too much • They’re not AI-native • They lead people... now replaced by dashboards That’s the new layoff filter. The stats are just as brutal: - Avg job hunt at 55 ? 26 weeks - Avg pay cut? 11% - Many never recover... forced into part-time “retirement” HR’s seriously broken. Recruiting? Mostly useless. I’ve seen the best people erased like they never mattered. If you’re not scared yet, you’re not paying attention.
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I am being told that Trump's 100 million barrel figure here is roughly accurate, and that over the past 3 weeks, huge dark fleets from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), escorted by U.S. Navy, have traversed the Hormuz Strait (as high as 7 million barrels per day)
Whoa. 100 million barrels in a lot. Still “only” 1/10th the cumulative lost barrels. Nevertheless, a big deal
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Chamath said a gigawatt data center used to cost ~$5B when he started his project but now runs closer to ~$100B fully loaded. The jump is all about silicon density with $NVDA Rubin-class racks approaching 600kW and every gigawatt carrying far more GPU and HBM content.
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I've said in every comment that some version of this is how I see 🛢 shaking out after a signed agreement. At ~$80.50 & a deal being signed this weekend, I think it's very possible we see a 'flash' to a 6-handle Sunday night or Monday. The dark arts are powerful & vested.
I'm going to jinx this peace deal but wanted to make a silly prediction after ONLY scrolling ZH while out. I told one of our finest FinX accts Friday, IF this deal happens, I can see oil getting rocked lower to something like $77 & finishing the day at ~$81.
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TRUMP ON IRAN: IMPORTANT THAT OIL IS PLUMMENTING AND STOCKS RISING
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If you denominate US GDP in gold instead of dollars, the chart is wild.
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People didn’t “Trust The Science” they trusted Fauci, a criminal psychopath who said he represented Science. To this day people have no idea the evil that was done to them. What’s worse, is that they have no interest in finding out the truth about Covid/lockdowns/vaxx because their beliefs about these things are “load bearing”. Remove them and their entire self identity will collapse. So they purposely stay ignorant and will never question the government’s behavior or Pharma’s or their own. Because doing so would collapse the world they currently live in. So they remain susceptible to it happening again.
Hoover Institution's Scott Atlas says he was in a meeting with Anthony Fauci during Covid He says Anthony Fauci’s goal was to make the public as afraid as possible so we would listen to mandates “Dr. Fauci at one point leaned over this sort of oval conference table and said, "One of the problems is the public is not afraid enough." And I was shocked to hear something like this. And I interrupted. I said, "Can you repeat that?" Dr. Fauci said, "That's the problem. The people are not afraid enough, so they won't listen."” “That's unethical. That's not the way public health is supposed to be done. It's unethical, in my opinion, to use fear in an emergency to manipulate people” - Being apart of releasing a virus that causes a global pandemic is crimes against humanity - Crimes against humanity can’t be pardoned - Multiple life sentences is the historical punishment
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Commodities MacGruber retweeted
This is a VERY good Tweet & how X should be Off the cuff & ON POINT There's a million tweets from Macro Nonce's vagueposting w/a CHART that does little, other than show they don't understand how flawed the data collection is If more people understand 👇 it would help them ALOT
Don’t overthink it. If you have $100 and you spend $50 on a tank of gas, you have $50 left to spend on other things. If you spend $70 on a tank of gas, you only have $30 left to spend on other things. You can buy less things with $30 than you can with $50, so your demand for other goods and services declines. When demand curves shift down, the new point of equilibrium (price) is lower. Saying a higher oil price is net inflationary is only true if you also assume that consumption habits will be unchanged, meaning that consumers will be both willing and able to take on additional debt to maintain current consumption habits, which is a fine argument to make, but just know that’s the true crux of it. Energy is obviously an input cost to all goods and services, so the simple inflation argument is that businesses will just pass the expense on to consumers. However, that again assumes that demand will be inelastic. What if it’s not? What if the business needs to lower its prices while its COGS are rising? That’s when you start to see headcount reductions. Then you start hearing the D-word. Not to mention in the current backdrop the biggest CPI/PCE factor (housing) is rolling over bigly. The yield spike from the Iran conflict will prove to be a great long bond opportunity, in my opinion. I believe the fall in yields from here will be biblical.
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Alot of commentary on overheating & runaway inflation ahead. I've been adament that this would NOT happen. Manufacturing & industrial, both falling off & are victims of higher rates & a ST oil bounce, in my view. Also, I'm SNIFFING out 'Peace Dividends' to be floated soon.
Industrial Production 0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.3%, Last 0.9 Mfg Production 0.0% MoM, Exp. 0.3%, Last 0.7% Capacity Utilization 76.2%, Exp. 76.2%
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This saga is the worst performance in Fintwit history Terrible delusion & abject stupidity by many of our greats I'm not condoning 🍊👑 or Iran but a deal was ALWAYS getting done This deal may be awful & a political death knell but the Strait opening was ALWAYS on a shot clock
TRUMP SAYS DEAL WITH IRAN IS NOW COMPLETE
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Last week (June 8), before the US-Iran deal was announced, I published this @Opinion column about the re-start of oil production in the Persian Gulf region. I argued it would go much faster than many are expecting. I still think that's the case. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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*TRUMP SAYS MOU SUSPENDS TOLLS IN THE STRAIT FOR 60 DAYS: NYT
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The option market has never been more bullish on chips, or more bearish on gold
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A 27% drop in gold looks like a top. Twice before, a crash like this was the start of the next leg up. In 2008, as Lehman triggered margin calls, gold fell 29%. What followed was QE1 through QE3 and a tripling of the price. In 2020, the pandemic crash took it down 12%. What followed was an unprecedented wave of fiscal and monetary expansion, and a rise of over 70%. This year, the drawdown was 27%. The bull market still has considerable room to run.
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JUST IN: 🇨🇳 China eliminates 12,000 ‘obsolete’ university degrees in push to prepare for the AI era​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​.
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USA. A backyard. A man. A grill. Four hours. He never left it once. Everyone else drifted, drank, wandered, laughed. He stood before the flames, turning meat with a long fork, immovable. I knew him at once. The keeper of the sacred fire. I took my place beside him. I said nothing. This is the first rule. You do not speak first to the man at the grill. After a long while, he spoke. "Low and slow," he said, eyes never leaving the coals. "You can't rush it. Rush it, you ruin it." I bowed my head. A blade. A tea. A life. None can be rushed. I had crossed four thousand miles of ocean to hear my grandfather's words spoken by a man in a "KISS THE COOK" apron. "Everything worth doing is slow," I said. I have never cooked meat in my life. But I said it as if I had said it a thousand times before. He glanced at me. Something passed between us. A current older than language. His voice dropped, low, almost ashamed. "My wife says just use the oven." He shook his head at the fire. "She doesn't get it." "They never do," I said. And this is where the man transformed. For the first time in years, he had been understood. He rose to meet it. His back straightened. His shoulders set. His voice fell half an octave. A teenager reached for the grill. He lifted one hand without even looking. "Not yet." The boy retreated. He did not argue. He could not have argued. A woman asked when the food would be done. He told the flames, not her. "It's ready when it's ready." Three people approached. Three were turned away with a single word each. By the fourth hour, no one questioned him. The whole party had arranged itself around the man and his fire, the way a village arranges itself around a shrine. Then he turned to me. He held out the fork. "Watch it a sec. I gotta pee." I have stood at the gate of lords with a naked blade in my hand. Nothing has ever weighed as much as that fork. I did not move my eyes from the coals. I did not touch the meat. I did not know how. I would not learn. To learn would be to break the moment. When he returned, I handed back the fork without a word, as one returns a sword to its rightful master. He served everyone before himself. He ate last, standing, still watching the fire. We never traded names. We did not need to. He believed he had finally met a man who took grilling seriously. I believed I had finally met America's last samurai. Neither of us will correct the other. Not now. Not ever. So I have made a vow. Every summer of my life, I will return to this country. I will find a backyard. I will find a man at a grill. I will stand beside him and say nothing until he speaks. And when he says "low and slow," I will bow my head as if my grandfather had spoken. I will die before I tell him I do not know how to cook meat. "KISS THE COOK," his apron commanded. I have obeyed. I will obey again.
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Night 11 of the sleep 'hack' below. INVALUABLE to me. Slept for 8.5 hours solid. Yesterday was a travel day w/lots of suitcase lifting but that's my best sleep in years. I triple leveraged my mojo to make breakfast egg bacon biscuit sandwiches for my crew. Served my P's theirs
I just finished night 4 of Pinealon & Epitalon. Absolutely amazing & by far the best health 'hack' I've done.
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In bed w/coffee per their preference, which makes me VERY happy. Showed my oldest how fun that can be. The core MacG's ate on the veranda & are gathering mojo for a vigorous day of swimming, slides & smoothies. May have to get SERIOUS at futes opening though.
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