$BTC
Based on every previous cycle, once the capitulation candle forms (the major cycle low), the sweep of that low has historically marked the bottom.
We've already seen that sweep. The capitulation low has been taken. The only thing that doesn't quite fit is the timing.
Historically, bear market bottoms have formed around Q4, not Q2. So the question becomes, do you trust the price action more, or the timing more?
At some point, one will break. We're only a few months away from the traditional timing window anyway, so it would be somewhat ironic if the market bottomed earlier than expected, just as it topped earlier than many anticipated.
The price action is already showing characteristics we've seen at previous cycle lows. The debate now is whether timing matters more than what the market is actually doing.