Official home of #GrindingTheMocks: using mock drafts, the wisdom of crowds, and machine learning to predict the NFL Draft. Created by @benj_robinson.
Joined June 2021
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- Following 4,162
- Followers 4,108
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499 Photos and videos
Grinding the Mocks retweeted
Was excited to make my triumphant return to @WMoneyball! Pretty cool to share an episode with @R_Thaler. Also, I’m happy to announce that @GrindingMocks worked with 7 teams out of 32 in the NFL last year. Onward and upward!
Apr 29
Today's show is available in Podcast Form NOW!
Richard Thaler, Nobel Laureate and Professor at the University of Chicago, and Benjamin Robinson, Founder of Grinding the Mocks discuss the impact of cognitive bias, valuation frameworks and data strategies on NFL draft selections.
Listen HERE: 👇👇👇
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
You can see from this chart why the Draft Probability Model thought that Nuss, Allar, and Klubnik would follow in Ewers' footsteps. Turned out it was just Nuss!
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
In my Draft Probability Models' numbers, the biggest reach in the 2026 NFL Draft was, in fact, the Steelers drafting Drew Allar. That model thought that Allar, Cade Klubnik, and Garrett Nussmeier were all going to follow in the footsteps of Quinn Ewers last year
Apr 26
Top 3 Draft Capital Over Expected Reaches:
1. Nate Boerkircher, TE, Texas A&M (EDP: 191, Pick: 56, Jacksonville Jaguars)
2. Albert Regis, DT, Texas A&M (EDP: Undrafted, Pick: 81, Jacksonville Jaguars)
3. Zavion Thomas, WR, LSU (EDP: Undrafted, Pick 89, Chicago Bears)
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Apr 26
I present to you my pride and joy: Draft Capital Over Expected for the 2026 NFL Draft. The Jaguars are giving the 49ers a run for their money in the chase for consensus boards, while the Colts and Raiders are rewarded for halting some prospects' big falls!
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Apr 26
Top 3 Draft Capital Over Expected Reaches:
1. Nate Boerkircher, TE, Texas A&M (EDP: 191, Pick: 56, Jacksonville Jaguars)
2. Albert Regis, DT, Texas A&M (EDP: Undrafted, Pick: 81, Jacksonville Jaguars)
3. Zavion Thomas, WR, LSU (EDP: Undrafted, Pick 89, Chicago Bears)
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Apr 26
Top 3 Draft Capital Over Expected Fallers:
1. Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee (EDP: 22, Pick: 101, Las Vegas Raiders)
2. Deion Burks, WR, Oklahoma (EDP: 89, Pick: 254, Indianapolis Colts)
3. Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (EDP: 90, Pick 249, Kansas City Chiefs)
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
We can do this now, but with the Jaguars and almost any of their other picks! Still the G4, though. Speaks to the lack of depth in the class. And yes, I know Jake Slaughter was announced as a guard!
If the 49ers draft EMW, people will say: "If only they just switched those picks around..."!
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
Welp. This is very Ruben Hypolite-esque! Yuck. 7th Round Value.
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
Surprised that Kaelon Black went before Mike Washington and Jonah Coleman! Will be a pretty decent overdraft here, too.
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
It's always easy to see Iowa players as Steelers players for some reason...
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
It truly was! Went later than his ceiling. Hopefully, he gets back to his form from this year!
11 Dec 2025
Yuck! This is horrible timing for Bell.
espn.com/college-football/st…
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
An alternative metric for mock draft quality is the pick-adjusted mean squared error. By that number, this mock by @1TimMurray is our top mock of the cycle! Will publish some of this data on GrindingtheMocks.com at some point in the future.
vsin.com/nfl/tim-murray-2026…
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
According to @GrindingMocks data, and given that Jermod McCoy is still waiting to be drafted, this mock from @jamfed is my pick for the "most accurate" in this year's cycle by our pick-adjusted rank correlation. Oh, and he published it on 3/23!
nationalfanatic.com/2026/03/…
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
D'Angelo Ponds is bringing his talents to bigger waters!
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
The Jaguars would take someone from outside of my Top 100 with their first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft!
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
Love this pick for any team with an EDGE need (aka any team in the NFL)! Good value for the Patriots (and two trade-ups) for premium position players.
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
The Browns are having a heck of a draft!
What's the deal with Emmanuel McNeil-Warren?
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
Another TE, another player drafted outside of my Top 100 players!
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Grinding the Mocks retweeted
Madness! But, sure. Thought he was more of a Day 3 guy!
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