In our latest for ⁦@ForeignAffairs⁩, ⁦we⁩ examine the consequences of the new regional disorder - aggressive & unrestrained Israel, weakened but vengeful Iran and unpredictable US - for the Gulf states' interests. Bottom line: not looking good. foreignaffairs.com/israel/mi…

Good read by @HTAlhasan : Bahrain has long been in Iran's crosshairs en.majalla.com/node/331511/p…

✍🏼 أحدث مقالاتي بمجلة @AlMajallaAR: الاعتداءات الإيرانية المستمرة على البحرين... الأسباب وخيارات المواجهة majalla.com/node/331500/�%…

📢 2pm BST today: Is the Middle East splitting into rival blocs? Speakers discuss how the Iran war is reshaping rivalries across the Middle East. ▪️@HTAlhasan ▪️@DEsfandiary ▪️@YasFarouk ▪️@FirasMaksad ▪️@SanamVakil Register ⤵️ chathamhouse.org/events/all/…

Do register and join us for a conversation with @YasFarouk @DEsfandiary @HTAlhasan @FirasMaksad on the balance of power in the Middle East

Meanwhile:

Will Middle Eastern countries give in to President Trump’s push to sign the Abraham Accords? @HTAlhasan doesn’t think so. Here’s why: (1/3)

A very timely inaugural piece by my colleague Tomisha Bino, who joins IISS-Middle East as Research Fellow for Energy Geopolitics. She examines the region’s nuclear-security landscape in light of the Iran war, and what Gulf nuclear newcomers can do to mitigate their exposure.

The Arab Gulf states are looking to replenish and strengthen their air and missile defences following the Iranian attacks earlier this year. While there has been a flurry of activity, rearmament will require overcoming multiple challenges. Read the latest analysis by @albert_vidal_: go.iiss.org/4wt4ann

“Iranian regime believes it can outlast Trump and therefore has no real reason to compromise” There are 3 camps emerging in the Gulf @HTAlhasan tells me regarding the approach to the Iranian regional threat * Accommodative (Oman). Compromises need to be made to a large neighbor who isn’t going away * Confrontationists (UAE, Bahrain). Diplomacy has failed. Military deterrence needed - somewhere in the middle (KSA, Qatar, Kuwait) ultimately no alternative to an immediate de-escalation as military strikes haven’t achieved political effects Watch here: bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

"A group of four regional powers – Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye – are closing ranks...The new Middle Eastern quadrilateral appears to be an attempt to counterbalance Israel’s designs to ‘redraw’ the map of the Middle East and to address shared security concerns, most notably the United States–Israeli war with Iran," @HTAlhasan writes iiss.org/online-analysis/onl…

As Kuwait and Qatar report fresh attacks, the Arab Gulf states risk being drawn into prolonged low-intensity warfare by Iran and Iran-backed militias in Iraq — a danger intensified by Trump’s seemingly desperate push to put a lid on the war ahead of his meeting with Xi.

Since the recent conflict in Iran, a new geopolitical bloc involving Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye has been forming in the Middle East. While not formalised, the four states are poised to tackle shared security concerns together. Read the latest analysis by @HTAlhasan: go.iiss.org/4evtnY3

The Egypt–Pakistan–Saudi Arabia–Türkiye quadrilateral formed as a reaction to Israel’s aggressiveness and the fallout from the US/Israel war with Iran. My latest for @IISS_org 👇 iiss.org/online-analysis/onl…

“Different Gulf states want different things,” @HTAlhasan tells me, stressing there is no unified GCC position on what an Iran endgame should look like. (1/2)

Enter the era of Gulf hyper transactionalism. Subtext of Dr Gargash’s post: UAE will scrutinize support (or lack thereof) shown by allies and partners during war and recalibrate relations accordingly. Reflects widely shared sentiment of abandonment in the Gulf by key partners.