An Analog man aware of the increassing digitalization of the world and the financial opportunity that comes with it through distributed ledger technologies
For $135 per share of SpaceX, you get
1/13,000,000,000th (One 13-BILLIONTH)
of a company that in 2025 received
$18,000,000,000
and lost
$5,000,000,000
It’s allegedly worth
$1,770,000,000,000
Do people not understand arithmetic anymore?
Can they not count zeroes? Mass delusion.
As a father of two young kids, I keep thinking about this from Dara:
"I think we're doing our kids a disservice by giving them too much, being around too much.
You want to love your kids, you want to know that they're absolutely loved and appreciated.
But it's the challenges in life that form you, and it's the overcoming of these challenges that give humans a profound satisfaction.
If you as a parent are overcoming these challenges for your kids, you're actually doing them a disservice long-term, whereas short-term you think you're doing them a favor.
They've got to learn how to make it in this world themselves.
A happy life is not necessarily an easy life."
My conversation with @dkhos, CEO of Uber.
Dara took over in 2017, when Uber was losing roughly $4.5B a year.
Today the company generates $10B in free cash flow and is worth about $150B.
We discuss:
- How Daniel Ek convinced him to take the job
- How Uber spent a full year of its AI budget in a single quarter
- Uber's approach to autonomous vehicles
- Drones, hotels, and building a superapp
- Lessons from Allen & Co, Barry Diller, and Reed Hastings
Enjoy!
Timestamps
0:00 Intro
3:44 Bringing Order to Uber’s Chaos
7:22 Managing Stress and Going All In
14:28 Why Uber Is at the Center of AI and Physical
22:39 How to Win in Autonomous Vehicles
32:25 The Trillion-Dollar AV Opportunity
37:05 Drones, Robotaxis, and Global Adoption
38:20 Uber Eats, Uber One, and Aggregating Supply
47:00 The Future of the Uber App
55:55 Lessons from Barry Diller
The only thing an old man can tell a young man is that it goes fast, real fast, and if you're not careful it's too late. Of course, the young man will never understand this truth.
- Norm Macdonald
🔥 "Leverage for the Long Run" Ganador del Charles H. Dow Award 2016, este paper rompe todo lo que pensás sobre apalancamiento
Analizan qué pasa si en lugar de hacer buy and hold del S&P 500 desde 1928, usás leverage SOLO cuando el mercado está arriba de la media móvil de 200 días, y te vas a bonos del tesoro cuando está abajo
Lo más interesante es que rompe el mito de que los ETFs apalancados se van decayendo con el tiempo por naturaleza. Lo que mata al leverage no es el tiempo, es la volatilidad alta y los mercados en serrucho. Cuando aplicás leverage en zonas de baja volatilidad con rachas de días positivos seguidos, pasa todo lo contrario a lo que la gente cree
El número es una locura: $10.000 metidos en 1928 con buy and hold del S&P 500 te quedan en $39 millones. La misma guita con la estrategia 3x leverage rotation te termina en $28 billones, con drawdowns más chicos y mejor Sharpe
La clave es simple: arriba de la 200 MA, leverage on. Abajo, cash. Nada más
Link al paper en el primer comentario
🔥 "The Alchemy of Multibagger Stocks" Paper increíble para entender qué acciones hacen 10x
Analizan 464 acciones del NYSE y Nasdaq que se multiplicaron por diez entre 2009 y 2024 y modelan qué factores predicen ese tipo de retorno con econometría seria
Lo más interesante es que rompe el mito principal: el crecimiento de ganancias (EPS, ventas, profit) NO predice el retorno futuro, algo que casi todos los inversores tratan como verdad absoluta
El driver más fuerte resultó ser el Free Cash Flow Yield.
Sumado a small cap, alto book to market, buena rentabilidad y una inversión agresiva pero respaldada con crecimiento de EBITDA
Te dejo el paper en el primer comentario
Taxing non-income-producing property is wrong. Homeowners should not be forced to work to pay "rent" to the government for the privilege of living in their own homes. Property taxes should only be levied on income-producing property, as the income provides a means to pay the tax.
“I had observed that the men who were most in life, who were molding life, who were life itself, ate little, slept little, owned little or nothing. They had no illusions about duty... or the preservation of the State. They were interested in truth and in truth alone. They recognized only one kind of activity - creation.”
—Henry Miller
“I am losing precious days. I am degenerating into a machine for making money. I am learning nothing in this trivial world of men. I must break away and get out into the mountains to learn the news.”
— John Muir
"You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inert, so hopelessly dependent on the system that they will fight to protect it."
- Morpheus