Last week, I shared my Gold outlook after spotting a clear Change of Character (CHOCH) from the lows. At the time, I explained that the market had shifted from a bearish structure and that the most important thing wasn’t the CHOCH itself, but what price would do next.
The key level we focused on was 4243.
My analysis was simple: if buyers could defend the higher lows and break above 4243, it would confirm bullish continuation and increase the probability of price expanding into the next supply zone.
Yesterday, before the market opened, I held our weekly live breakdown with the Telegram community and went over the exact same idea. We discussed market structure, liquidity, higher lows, possible bullish and bearish scenarios, and why traders should stop trying to predict the market and instead learn how to prepare for multiple outcomes.
As the week begins, price has done exactly what we discussed.
✅ Buyers defended the higher lows.
✅ Price broke above 4243.
✅ Price expanded into the 4373 supply zone.
Now we enter the next phase of the story.
This is where traders need to understand that markets move in cycles: accumulation, expansion, retracement, and then continuation or reversal.
The rally from the lows was the expansion phase. The question now is whether buyers have enough strength to absorb the selling pressure around 4373 and continue pushing toward 4462, or whether the market needs a pullback to gather more liquidity before another move higher.
This is why trading is not about predicting. The real skill is understanding what the market is communicating through structure.
Last week, we identified the shift. Yesterday, we prepared for the possibilities. Today, we watch how price reacts at the objective we mapped out.
The goal was never to be right. The goal was to be prepared.
Preparation beats prediction every time 📊
Gold
$XAUUSD H1 Breakdown
Gold gave a strong bullish move from the lows and created a CHOCH, showing that buyers stepped into the market after the downtrend.
Since then, price has been making higher lows and recently broke out of the small bearish trend line, that tells us buyers are still in control for now.
The main level I’m watching is the recent high around 4243.
If price breaks above that high and holds, the next objective is the supply zone around 4320, that’s where I expect price to be attracted to next.
If price rejects from this area, don’t panic. A pullback would be normal. Markets don’t move in straight lines.
The important thing is whether buyers can continue defending higher lows.
What to watch next:
Break above 4243= More bullish continuation
Rejection from 4243 =Possible pullback before the next move
The CHOCH already happened yes but now what we’re waiting for now is confirmation that buyers are strong enough to keep pushing price higher.