Polymarket Investor
Joined November 2025
- Tweets 19
- Following 11
- Followers 173
- Likes 5
5 Photos and videos
22 Dec 2025
Going crazy over some random Indian guy's $91M prediction, and it's total nonsense that it's not moving up from 90c even after the Deadline Monday numbers came out. Anyway, this market was exhausting.
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4 Dec 2025
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After I spotted an insider account, I took a position on d4vd to be #1 in the People category, but d4vd’s Google Trends numbers didn’t actually look that high, so even as I entered I wasn’t sure if it really made sense.
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4 Dec 2025
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But within just a couple of hours of getting in, Google’s Year in Search 2025 page leaked, and I was able to sell all the d4vd I’d bought at 99.8¢.
Trading on insider information is risky, but it’s great for making big profits in a short time.
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2 Dec 2025
Mention markets tend to give good results when you’re just having some light fun with them.
At the last Cabinet meeting (Oct 9), Trump said “thank you” 20 times and “please” 11 times.
Buying “Thank you / Please 15 times” at 90¢ is a EV, low-risk bet, and luckily it hit.
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21 Nov 2025
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This round of markets tied to the Sotheby's Leonard A. Lauder Auction was genuinely fun. Let’s walk through what happened in contract "Lot 7 Matisse – 15m "
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21 Nov 2025
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That made it possible to buy No and lock in a high, essentially risk-free return.
This was probably the least stressful profit I’ve ever made on Polymarket. If I’m lucky, the next set of markets will attract another wave of traders who make the same mistake.
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21 Nov 2025
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In other words, the number displayed there includes the buyer’s premium. Once you strip out the premium, the actual hammer price is only 14,000,000 USD, which is below the 15m threshold.
But a lot of people seem to have looked only at the sold price and piled into Yes.
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21 Nov 2025
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The reason is that the sold price is not the hammer price.
At the top of the results page, Sotheby’s clearly notes:
“Please note that the results listed on this page are inclusive of any Sotheby's Premiums ...”
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21 Nov 2025
2.
Lot 7 Matisse – 15m
The rule was simple:
If the work’s hammer price exceeded 15 million USD, the market would resolve Yes. Otherwise, it would resolve No.
On Sotheby’s official website, the result is shown only as the sold price.
However, this market is about to resolve No.
ALT Sold price: 16,710,000 USD
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