Well, here's some math. Starlink is a profitable business with about $11 billion of sales and $3 billion of free cash flow. It might be worth $75 billion at a frisky multiple of 25X free cash flow. The balance----the space launch business and the AI/data centers in space fantasy----has $7 billion of sales and NEGATIVE -$17 billion of free cash flow. So why is it worth anything, unless you are pricing a dream peddled by sell-side hucksters?! In short, after trading up to $2 trillion based on $75 billion of tangible Starlink value, where's the remaining $1.925 trillion of it? This isn't just the classical mania of the crowds. This is sui generis--- mass insanity in a casino that has been giving a lobotomy by three decades of money-printing madness at the Fed and its fellow-traveling central banks around the planet.

Good one.

A tale of two responses to Chinese automotive competition. The EU has concluded that a zero-sum response will accelerate the decline of its legacy automakers. Instead, it is permitting Chinese automotive manufacturing on European soil (see chart) in the hope of preserving what remains of its industrial ecosystem, retaining jobs, know-how, and supply chain relevance. The U.S., by contrast, appears to favor a “Galápagos Strategy”: protecting domestic manufacturers behind tariff walls while they become progressively less competitive in global markets. That approach may delay painful adjustments and reduce political pressure in the short term. But over the longer term, Ford and GM face a larger risk: the erosion of their international businesses in markets where U.S. tariffs offer no protection against Chinese competitors delivering better technology, better quality, and better value. The Owl View 🦉: The question is not whether Chinese automakers will become global competitors—they already are. The real question is whether U.S. policymakers want their industries competing alongside them, learning from them, and capturing part of the value created, or competing against them from behind walls that grow higher as competitiveness declines. Industrial strategy should optimize for economic viability, not government policy.

JD.Com's annual 618 shopping festival opened on May 30, with the number of new merchants participating surging over 62% from last year’s edition, according to the Chinese e-commerce giant. In the first four hours, 51 new merchants achieved sales of more than CNY10 million (USD1.5 million), while 1,516 ones of over CNY1 million (USD147,790). @JD_Corporate

We have an entire cottage industry now of people mocking valuation metrics, even though they basically have a 100% success record in predicting corrections to the mean. Their main flaw is they don't tell when the correction is coming.

We've gone from using $30 mil in missiles to intercept $5,000 drones and $500,000 missiles to using $2.5 billion warships as recon by fire platforms for small arms to engage small boats and acting like CIWS kicking on in a naval engagement is normal. All while civilian trade is still blocked and bankers are eating salads off chilled plates in Beverly Hills and wondering out loud if Hormuz even matters.

“.. valuations today are not nearly as extreme as they were at the end of 1999. Full stop.” What are you talking about Dan? 👇🏼 At the end of April, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index is 191% above its long-term trend. The historic average for the P/E10 (CAPE) is 17.7. The latest ratio of 37.9 is 69% above its long term trend line. As of April, the latest Q Ratio is 2.07, 144% above its historic average and at the highest level in history.

The thing that eventually destroys the US economy is the fact that our financial system has been restructured to continually transfer wealth from productive income workers to non-productive financial asset owners. It specifically and by design punishes the productive.

Just remember: Your coworkers will NOT be there for you in the last chapter of your life.

RT @markoinny: Due to shortages, world (will) have mass flight cancelations, driving restrictions, work from home etc. to save energy, but…

When you try to repost the tweet from @RealJimChanos about non-recurring items in the operating results of $TSLA, twitter PREVENTS YOU FROM DOING IT! But you can take a screenshot!

A clear, well-articulated argument against a new data center in Ohio... worth watching

RT @dfwaaronlayman: This helps explain the local uptick in VA foreclosures. Trump threw veterans under the bus while he was busy profiteer…

My name’s Dan Osborn. I'm a steamfitter from Omaha, Nebraska. I punched a clock in a factory for 20 years. Now I'm running for U.S. Senate against Pete Ricketts, the son of a billionaire who had a Senate seat handed to him and has used it to serve his wealthy friends ever since. Four straight polls show this race is TIED. If a mechanic beats a billionaire in Nebraska, it will send shockwaves through our entire political system. This is the race. Working people versus the people who have rigged the game against them.

 Thank you to everyone who voted to help me pick out my newest tattoo: Nebraska’s State Bird, the Meadowlark.

Iran War Announcements Link in comments...

I think it depends on how the Hormuz Crisis resolves. For reasons known only to the President he has decided to gamble the risk of this being our Suez moment now, in a war we didn’t have to fight. There was a deal to be had, and since we are now lifting sanctions on Iranian why didn’t we make that deal? We have put ourselves in the position that anything less than crushing the regime and regaining the strait of Hormuz will be seen by the world as the U.S. losing, much like Suez was for British empire. People say that the dollar is backed by the U.S. military. Well, behind every U.S. defense contractor is 100 Chinese suppliers. I think it is naive to think China is going to supply materials needed to win this conflict while providing targeting and GNSS support for strikes. Whether that is in the form of increasing missile production or supplying materials needed to rebuild infrastructure destroyed across region. The U.S. system is now balanced on a single pillar, military supremacy. It used to be three pillars, including the rule of law and dollar liquidity, but we have shown the world that neither of those apply anymore. Reserves are not safe in dollars since 2022 when the U.S. seized Russian reserves. And this year we have shown if you don’t have a nuke you are not safe from military action if you do something the U.S. doesn’t like. So we are down to a single pillar, military might, specifically the fear of our air power and carrier strike groups. The system can still function with two demolished pillars and only this last pillar standing. But only so long as everyone lives in fear of that last pillar. If Iran outlasts us and we do not retake the strait of Hormuz then the world will rightfully say that last pillar is gone too. Of course many will disagree with this assessment and that is fine, we are all responsible for our own decisions and families. I have no doubt the U.S. will stay deadly for a long time. Much like the Ottomans did after they no longer controlled world trade. Or the British. But the writing will be on the wall. While we continue to murder whoever we want and the DoD makes snuff videos of it, the world will keep moving over to CIPS since no sane person would continue to let the U.S. exercise control over monetary chokepoint when they can no longer control physical trade chokepoints. What comes after? Missile supremacy and domestic self-reliance will be highly valued since that broke the last pillar. As will assets in jurisdictions that don’t require passage through a Chokepoint. That is totally different from the highly leveraged global system we have currently. That’s what I think is at stake with the Hormuz crisis.

Yes… not to mention the additional benefits of people not getting killed, critical infrastructure not getting blown up, and hundreds of billions in taxpayer cost savings Almost like there’s zero upside and all downside to launching wars of aggression in the Middle East

RT @TruthGundlach: If Private Credit portfolios are performing as well as their sponsors keep reporting they are, why are they limiting or…

PSA: Bombing a country on the other side of the globe won’t make the Epstein files go away, any more than the Dow going above 50,000 will.

Bill Ackman will go down in history as one of the most spineless, least principled hedge fund managers the world has ever had. His ability and willingness to write long-form, self-serving, bootlicking posts on Twitter for the benefit of no one but himself based on whatever Donald Trump says or does rather than actual societal considerations is one of his greatest weaknesses. Or which there are many. What we do in life echoes in eternity.