Holy Poly — Project Structure. Holy Poly is a suite of tools designed for working with prediction markets (primarily @Polymarket ). The project focuses on analysis, monitoring, and assisting with trading within these markets. Tools currently available to users: ◾️ Iran Situation Monitor. •Tracks news and key developments. •Helps inform decisions in related markets. ◾️ Earthquake Monitor. •Designed for earthquake-related markets. •Provides real-time event tracking. ◾️ Position Calculator (delta-neutral strategies). •Built for crypto-related prediction markets. •Enables construction of delta-neutral strategies. •Accounts for time decay. •Analogy: partially similar to options. ◾️ Multi-leg Arbitrage Screener. •Identifies arbitrage opportunities across markets. •Supports multi-leg strategies. ◾️ Elon Musk Activity Monitor. •Tracks tweet counts per market on Polymarket (including monthly markets). •Includes a mathematical prediction model. •Provides an activity heatmap. •Available to all users until the end of April. holypoly.ca

Ronaldo will cry. There’s little doubt about that. Everyone knows how emotional and sentimental Cristiano is. A group-stage exit, a missed penalty, reaching a final, an injury — tears. This will be the last World Cup for a legend. I didn’t buy YES when I first wrote about this market at 56c. I’m not buying it now at 71c either. I’m waiting. On June 17, Portugal will play their opening match of the tournament against DR Congo. I’m expecting a comfortable win with little emotion involved. After the inevitable repricing of YES down by 20–30c, that’s when I’ll buy. Market: polymarket.com/event/will-ro…

What’s the deal with buying at 99.8¢? There are many ways to bond a trade. First, let’s look at it from the perspective of volume farming. Why do this? - Want to give people your referral link? You need $10K in volume. - Want a Polymarket airdrop? Farm volume. - Want a Polymarket airdrop? Improve your win rate. How does it work? This is just one approach: x.com/holypoly_ca/status/206…. In simple terms, you’re buying certainty. The ideal moment is when the outcome is already effectively decided (for example, after a World Cup match has ended). Bonding sports markets is one of the lowest-risk ways to do it. The result is already known, UMA won’t interfere, and neither will Polymarket. The second approach is farming profit. There are Polymarket accounts that exclusively buy outcomes at 99.8–99.9¢. These traders deploy millions of dollars into positions to make something like $200. At first glance, the risk/reward ratio seems absurd. But I’m convinced they’re not taking that risk for utility-bill money — they’re farming what could be a very lucrative future Polymarket airdrop. If that’s the case, the trade-off starts to make sense. Here are two examples of such farmers: 1. polymarket.com/@033033033?r=… 2. polymarket.com/@poorsob?r=Ho… So you’ve found the accounts. What’s next? Plug them into your bot and copy-trade them intelligently. Speed isn’t particularly important in these markets, so there’s no need to rush. Buy at 99.9¢, sell at 100¢ after resolution. Pure bond. If all the pieces line up correctly, you’re essentially buying an already-approved outcome. All that’s left is to bond the trade. What pieces need to line up? Here’s what I look for: - Traders like poorsob or 033 enter the position with more than $1 million. - If a dispute is open, voting in the UMA Discord is leaning the same way. - There is clarification from Polymarket (I haven’t seen a case where their guidance was later reversed). - It should be a YES token, since NO tokens can sometimes attract unexpected arguments for a reversal. - My own assessment matches the market consensus. Personally, I’m not doing this for the profit, so I use standard position sizing. For me, it’s just another small contribution toward a possible Polymarket airdrop.

Farming volume on Polymarket. Mexico vs South Africa. 85th minute, 2–0 scoreline, and South Africa are down to 10 men after a red card. For anyone watching the match, even a draw no longer looks like a realistic outcome. Polymarket has allocated $1 million in liquidity rewards for World Cup markets.

«Buy Panic, Sell Relief» — a World Cup strategy for Polymarket. The tournament starts today, and if you still haven’t decided on a trading strategy, here’s one worth considering. World Cups create some of the biggest overreactions in sports markets. After just one loss or draw, a team’s odds often collapse far more than their actual chances of advancing from the group stage. What to do: • Buy strong teams after a disappointing first match. • Avoid teams that are already on the verge of elimination. • Sell once they return to the top two spots in the group or after a convincing second-match win. Examples: • France draws 1-1 against an underdog → price falls from 16c to 10-12c → buy → rebounds to 15-18c after a win in Matchday 2. • England unexpectedly loses its opener → the market starts pricing in an early exit → buy the dip. • Brazil drops points in the first game → media panic kicks in → buy before sentiment recovers. Why it works: The group stage is longer than it feels. One win and one draw are often enough to advance. The crowd systematically overreacts to the most recent result. Exit rules: • Take 30-50%. • Fully exit once the team qualifies for the knockout stage. • Don’t hold positions deep into the tournament. The edge isn’t predicting the winner. The edge is buying fear when everyone else is overreacting. Market: polymarket.com/event/world-c…

Updated Holy Poly. We polished a lot of things that aren’t noticeable at first glance, but improve the overall stability and performance of the software. Also: - Added Google authentication. - Dashboards are now more flexible. - Added a hantavirus screener.

Announcement of our AI agent. We’re excited to announce our AI agent Hexa X1 (a multi-agent orchestrator powered by several leading frontier AI models). Key features of X1: •complete knowledge of Polymarket as a platform (API, mechanics); •access to Polymarket market data and deep understanding of it; •access to external data sources for analytics; •two working modes: Fast and Thinking; •ability to create infographics in Thinking mode. Upcoming features in X2: •analysis and monitoring of your positions; •coding module (building bots/services); •… more details coming soon …

Welcome on board. We’re excited to introduce our SWE/SRE. @agurets3 is doing tremendous work inside the project, and now his mummified avatar is featured on the Holy Poly hall of fame.

Turned $50 into $2,000. While everyone was waiting for a strike on Iran, this trader bet on a strike on Iraq at a better price. The idea: a preemptive strike against pro-Iranian groups in Iraq. 🟢 On Polymarket: polymarket.com/@Spirit-LT

Bet on the biggest scam in crypto. Onchain detective ZachXBT is preparing the largest insider trading exposé in the crypto industry. A major investigation will be released on February 26. According to him, employees of one of the most profitable crypto companies have been abusing insider information and profiting from insider trading over a long period of time. The company’s name is still being kept secret, but the announcement has already sparked speculation across the market and could significantly impact the industry. 🟢 On @Polymarket polymarket.com/event/which-c…

in case u wanna try also #polymarket btc m15 (fit for m5/h1/day) github.com/lubluniky/KDE

Leveraged trading on @Polymarket . Ultramarkets is a platform that provides margin trading (up to 10x leverage) for Polymarket. It uses a prime broker model to source liquidity from LPs. The project was founded by Njoku and is backed by Yzi Labs. We are already seeing early signals, but the full liquidity extraction from retail through leverage will begin once @HyperliquidX arrives here. ultramarkets.xyz/