Coined Millennial. Portfolio Manager @HedgeyeAM. Author: The 4th Turning Is Here, The 4th Turning, & Generations. Newsletter: demographyunplugged.com
Joined August 2015
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8 Dec 2025
The single question readers have asked me most since my book “The Fourth Turning Is Here” came out is: “What can we do to prepare for the coming climax?”
$HEFT is my answer on the wealth-management side. As an ETF, it’s available to everyone. I’m excited to co-manage it with veteran PM @RPKent—I’ll focus on strategy, RPK will focus on tactics.
To my readers: avoid chasing indexes. If you're worried about your inflation-adjusted wealth over the next decade--and wish to do more than hide out in T bills--please give HEFT your serious consideration.
For important investor information, including prospectus and risk considerations, visit: hedgeyeam.com/HEFT
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Neil Howe retweeted
Neil Howe @HoweGeneration predicted decades ago that a crisis around 2020 would mark a major historical turning point.
At @WSJ’s flagship Future of Everything event, Howe explains why the next phase of this chaotic Fourth Turning could bring an even bigger global reset.
His framework underpins $HEFT.
wsj.com/video/the-fourth-tur…
This material should not be relied upon as investment, tax or legal advice, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell a security or other investment and is not intended to predict or depict performance of any investment. Investors must consult their tax advisor or legal counsel for advice and information concerning their particular situation.
For more information, including holdings and strategy, visit hedgeyeam.com/heft
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May 29
Does Ken Paxton's primary victory make Texas more competitive for Democrats? Not necessarily.
In my latest podcast episode, I explain why the conventional wisdom may be wrong. demographyunplugged.com/p/ep…
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May 8
Graham Platner (@grahamformaine) will be a much stronger candidate than Gov. Janet Mills. Still, Susan Collins has a long history of surviving difficult election cycles. Expect Maine to be a very close race.
demographyunplugged.com/p/ep…
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Neil Howe retweeted
May 7
HedgeyeLIVE is next week!
Tickets here: hedgeyelive.com.
Amazing guest lineup incl. John Spytek (Las Vegas Raiders GM), @Mike_Taylor1972 @GioValiante @DiMartinoBooth @HoweGeneration @HedgeyeAM @denniswhkwok and many more.
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Apr 24
One side effect of recent gerrymandering is that political parties in Congress are becoming even more regional. This echoes the 1850s, and it will likely make partisanship even worse. demographyunplugged.com/p/ep…
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Game. On. 🔥
Hedgeye's 16th "INVESTING SUMMIT"
April 21-23
11am-1pm ET
3 days. 9 webcasts. 0 excuses.
Reserve your free virtual seat: tinyurl.com/23drmv38
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Apr 17
It’s increasingly unlikely Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15. Powell says he’ll stay on as temporary chair, setting up a direct standoff with Trump that could spill into the courts. demographyunplugged.com/p/ep…
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Apr 14
The trend towards older moms has steadily accelerated over the last 30 years. But these gains are not large enough to offset declines among younger women.
For an offset to be effective, we would have to see a significant rise in the birth rate of 30-to 34-year-olds. But we aren’t seeing that. The birth rate for this group is the same in 2025 as it was in 2004. demographyunplugged.com/p/am…
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Apr 10
It’s still unclear if this war is truly over. Trump faces a dilemma: prolonged fighting risks midterm losses, but a bad deal could be just as damaging.
Listen to my latest podcast for a deeper analysis. demographyunplugged.com/p/ep…
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Neil Howe retweeted
Neil @HoweGeneration another nice rip for you in this GE Vernova $GEV eh (new highs)
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The Fourth Turning paradox of institutional leadership:
The leader presents himself as the protector of the institution’s integrity while simultaneously embodying everything that eroded it.
If you haven’t read Neil Howe's The Fourth Turning Is Here, we’d strongly suggest you pick up a copy.
@HoweGeneration is our in-house demographer here at Hedgeye, and his generational theory is one of the most important frameworks for understanding where we are right now. Not just in markets, but in society.
Howe argues that Anglo-American history moves in roughly 80-to-100-year cycles, each divided into four “turnings” that last about 20 years each.
The First Turning is a High—post-WWII America, institutional confidence sky-high, civic order strong.
The Second Turning is an Awakening—the 1960s and 70s, when the counterculture began tearing at the social fabric.
The Third Turning is an Unraveling—Reagan through the early 2000s, where individualism runs rampant and institutions hollow out.
And the Fourth Turning is the Crisis—where everything that was rotting beneath the surface finally collapses under its own weight and forces a total reconstruction.
What's particularly important to note is that the Crisis doesn’t come out of nowhere.
It’s the product of decades of institutional decay in which the people running institutions got more interested in preserving their own status and comfort than in serving the mission those institutions were built to fulfill.
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Apr 7
Great new book by Nicholas Tobias, The Monastery of the Damned: From the Ivy League to the French Foreign Legion.
Amazon: amazon.com/Monastery-Damned-…
Here is my blurb on the back cover.
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Apr 6
Heavy social media use is associated with a darker political outlook.
Among adults who spend an hour or less per day on social media, only 9% say it is sometimes acceptable to use violence to achieve political goals.
But among those who scroll for five or more hours, 22% say the same. That’s a 13-point difference. demographyunplugged.com/p/he…
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A Third of the World’s Helium Is Trapped.
As Hedgeye Asset Management $HEFT Portfolio Manager Neil Howe writes, “Helium is a critical industrial gas used in semiconductors, MRI machines, and aerospace...” @HoweGeneration
Full story 👇
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Neil Howe retweeted
The Fourth Turning Is Here — And Wall Street Doesn't Want You to See It app.hedgeye.com/insights/180… via @HoweGeneration
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The Fourth Turning Is Here — And Wall Street Doesn't Want You to See It
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Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough breaks down why this could be the worst Quad 3 in rate-of-change terms we've ever measured, point to point, within the context of the Fourth Turning that is materializing.
With President Trump set to address the nation tonight amid escalating conflict with Iran, Neil Howe's @HoweGeneration framework has never felt more aligned.
As Howe writes, every Fourth Turning unleashes forces that push the nation into a great national challenge, one where the very survival of the nation will feel at stake.
The real war isn't just that of course. It is generational, societal, and global.
As Keith puts it, "There's so many things that are going on that the human eye can't see."
That's exactly why we use fractal patterns and a repeatable, data-driven process to cut through the noise and see what others can't.
Subscribe to The Macro Show for insights you won't find anywhere else. accounts.hedgeye.com/product…
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The real war is a K-shaped economy with two sets of rules and zero accountability.
It's generational, institutional, and becoming obvious nearly 30 years after Neil Howe, $HEFT Portfolio Manager @HedgeyeAM, wrote about it in The Fourth Turning.
One generation is placing same-day options on a tweet.
The other is clutching their 60/40 portfolios like it's 1987.
Two generations. Zero process.
The Fourth Turning Is Here.
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