“Two roads diverged in a wood, and I - I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost
Joined October 2021
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- Followers 11,981
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30 Aug 2023
New article about consciousness in trading. Less practical than the others I've published, and more philosophical. Though hopefully some of you will still find it useful/interesting.
medium.com/@humacapital/cons…
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Apr 9
Instead of using LLMs to argue in favor of your trade theses, use them to attack them from all sides.
Either you find out things you missed, or you can refute the arguments and strengthen your conviction.
Mar 28
- Drafted a blog post
- Used an LLM to meticulously improve the argument over 4 hours.
- Wow, feeling great, it’s so convincing!
- Fun idea let’s ask it to argue the opposite.
- LLM demolishes the entire argument and convinces me that the opposite is in fact true.
- lol
The LLMs may elicit an opinion when asked but are extremely competent in arguing almost any direction. This is actually super useful as a tool for forming your own opinions, just make sure to ask different directions and be careful with the sycophancy.
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Apr 6
Markets are incredible ecosystems for memetic evolution.
They enforce both truth-seeking and measured risk-taking; precisely what the world needs to keep making progress indefinitely.
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Mar 26
Believe that the US winning this war will be bearish gold.
Not only would it strengthen the US and weaken the Eastern power bloc (who have been the biggest buyers of gold), but if the US gains and maintains full control over the Strait of Hormuz, it could restrengthen the petrodollar, which has been on a decline. In recent years, China has been pushing for a 'petroyuan' system, which was indirectly bullish gold, so any threat to the petroyuan system would be bearish gold.
The above is assuming the US is able to get a clear and decisive victory. If they don't, e.g. if Iran's regime stays and they gain control over the Strait, it would be very bearish USD and bullish gold.
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Mar 30
After more thinking and talking with others, came to the conclusion that the above is wrong.
Going back to a full petrodollar system is not doable nor beneficial for the US. And even if the above plays out, it will not be enough to stop the gold bull market, given the trends that have been in motion for some time and continue to accelerate:
- Ever-rising debts, money printing, and fiat devaluation
- De-dollarization and 'sell US' narrative
- De-globalization
- US reshoring manufacturing
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Feb 17
Opened a long-term AAPL/TSLA pair trade.
Am bearish TSLA for rest of this year, and AAPL looks like one of the few decent long legs currently.
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Mar 27
Was waiting for this specific news to double down on this trade, so here we go.
x.com/tradfi/status/20373338…
Mar 27
*SPACEX CONSIDERING GIVING PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT IN SHARE ALLOTMENTS TO INVESTORS IN OTHER MUSK COMPANIES, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ
$TSLA
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Mar 19
Markets looking like they're scrambling for liquidity: equities, commodities, bonds, crypto - all down.
In a true risk-off scenario, everything goes down in the short term.
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Mar 23
The scrambling for liquidity is intensifying.
If we end up getting a massive panic-driven sell-off, there will be great opportunities to buy from forced sellers.
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Feb 5
Bought a long term bag of MOH here after it dumped 30% on bad earnings.
They have solid fundamentals and should trade significantly higher towards EOY, especially after democrats win the midterms.
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Mar 20
Closing this for a small gain. Main thesis stands but don't have a favorable outlook on equities for the rest of the year, and this was an unhedged long, so closed this.
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Mar 20
In the end the tech will just get integrated into tradfi without any crypto token benefiting, as is already happening with stablecoins, RWA, and 24/7 equities trading.
The world is PvP, and the big tradfi powers are not simply going to let others eat their lunch.
Mar 20
Hyperliquid now trades more oil, gold, and silver than crypto.
People will eventually start to realize crypto isn’t about crypto but about offering a more realistic and efficient infrastructure for any type of exchange.
That goes from proof, reputation and alike to trading, real world assets and more.
Hyperliquid is killing it. Look at that chart, green in a see of red.
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Mar 20
Looks like markets are still very complacent.
If the war were to stop today, the 2nd order effects would be felt for months at the least.
And if anything things seem to be escalating rather than de-escalating.
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Feb 23
The biggest risk to physical AI is a human equipped with digital AI.
A displaced white-collar worker, retrained as blue-collar worker aided by AI tools (think Meta Glasses) will be both cheaper and more effective than a humanoid in most areas.
The only hidden cost is that the human has free will.
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Feb 2
Believe this latest gold bubble was a top for the big debasement narrative for the foreseeable future.
Global bond yields (ex Japan) are stable and have been stable for the past year. Fiat debasement is inevitable but it's not going to happen overnight.
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Feb 2
Also note how the Ray Dalio thesis has become common normie knowledge.
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Feb 1
Believe both of these are set to meaningfully mean-revert over the coming years.
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Feb 1
Warsh wants to do QT > no more (or delayed) Fed put > significant increase in left tail risk for US equities.
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