China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780…

“Critical maritime chokepoints around the world have become fraught with new risks.” Read @IBKardon on why “accelerating challenges to free navigation are fragmenting the formerly open trading system.” foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

“Washington’s idea that it needed to command every sea all the time put unmanageable burdens on the Pentagon, which became saddled with a strategy, industrial base, and economic model that was no longer fit for purpose,” writes @IBKardon. foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

“The maritime order has long been defined by a tension between states’ wish to navigate the seas freely and their temptation to control maritime space.” Read @IBKardon on the future of global sea lanes. foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

Washington still fields “the world’s most capable force of aircraft, warships, and submarines,” writes @IBKardon. But “the efficacy of U.S. military power in contested littoral zones” is eroding. foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

foreignaffairs.com/united-st… Sharing my latest in @ForeignAffairs, originally entitled "The New 'Cannon-Shot Rule': The Ayatollah Tollbooth and the End of Free Navigation" All about why the chokepoints now impossible to control: cheap drones, expensive missiles, ships, aircraft...

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz “has put a spotlight on just how much the global economy depends on ships’ ability to pass unencumbered through key waterways—and how fragile that right is,” writes @IBKardon. foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

“Even if the United States were to sink extraordinary resources into an attempt to reestablish a high degree of control over the commons, restoring the old maritime order is no longer a realistic aim,” argues @IBKardon. foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

While you were sleeping, the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps lined up five vessels, including two India-flagged LPG carriers and one Pakistan-flagged crude tanker to transit the Strait of Hormuz via Larak Island. Around 5am they were positioned here (red square) and by lunchtime they had reached Gulf of Oman. This re-routing of traffic via Iran's territorial waters evolved ~2 weeks ago and now between about a dozen ships can be tracked daily (excluding Iranian-flagged ships) via AIS. So far today (I'm posting this around 1620pm London time) I've seen these five ships (all going eastbound) plus another two bulk carriers (one westbound and another eastbound) clearly make the IRGC-controlled transit. There are the usual dark tankers including US-sanctioned Sullana, a VLCC that accidently pinged pretending to be a service vessel sailing westbound plus another Comoros flagged dark fleet tanker with a fake MMSI number that left a telltale blip. In additional to the two COSCO containerships turned back yesterday, I've found another three ships, one of them a bulk carrier signalling "Karachi food for PK", another saying "China owner crew - ex BIK china owner" as well as a livestock carrier. All appear to have been refused transit 24-26/3 and now at anchor, waiting. Why the two containerships were turned away wasn't clear. They were part of the Ocean Alliance which includes France's CMA CGM, perhaps that was why. At 18,000 TEU capacity each, that's a massive marine insurance bill, too. Watching and collating this information daily for @WindwardAI at such a forensic level has shown me how Iran is consolidating control over Hormuz with its selective blockade. Bulk carriers carrying agricultural products to and from Iran have access, as do select Pakistan/India energy commodities cargoes, and of course the dark fleet with oil and gas that is the revenue lifeline for the regime. And there are dark tanker transits by a well-known, baseball cap-wearing Greek shipping billionaire. One of his tankers turned up in India yesterday, another four have gone dark in the Gulf. How he is doing this takes some wily negotiating powers and deep contacts at government and commercial levels to make this happen. Many of the bulk carriers sailing through are also Greece-owned, which brings me to the thorny question of whether or not tolls are being paid for transits. I've seen no primary evidence or direct attribution from people in a position to know, just hearsay and "sources". That's not to say it's happening. A UN Panel of Experts report on Yemen found that the Houthis were also extracting money for safe passage, even when all I ever heard was rumour and innuendo. If there were tolls being paid, that would place those Greece shipowners in a particularly curly position, so perhaps if there are fees, they are being selectively imposed. This is Houthis Red Sea playbook on steroids. Work for an IMO-style safe corridor goes on behind the scenes but in the meantime, the IRGC rules the waves (in the Strait of Hormuz at least).

Great to see @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime cited in @CNN/@pulitzercenter-@Ocean_ORN/@mongabay's penetrating multimedia probe quoting @IBKardon, @GordianKnotRay, @tshugart3 & @KimoFanell! edition.cnn.com/interactive/… "more than 40 vessels...make up #China’s blue-water marine scientific research fleet, the world's largest, according to the China Maritime Studies Institute." "The Xiang Yang Hong 01 made a similar journey. Shortly after operating in its deep sea mining license areas in the Northwest Pacific, the vessel entered the Bering Sea in August 2024 and operated for several days inside Russia’s EEZ, a move described by @rdmartinson88 of the US #NavalWarCollege’s #ChinaMaritimeStudiesInstitute as 'very rare, maybe unprecedented.'" Background from my recent @USCC_GOV Statement for the Record: uscc.gov/sites/default/files… "China possesses the world’s largest fleet of oceanographic research vessels, which conduct extensive seabed mapping and marine surveys—including in Bering Sea waters above the U.S.-claimed extended continental shelf, potentially in a direct challenge to American maritime claims.30 Such research can support #submarine operations and maritime domain awareness. While imperfect and under development, China’s effort to achieve maritime domain awareness throughout the water column and into the seabed is comprehensive and relentless. It draws in part on civilian and dual-use inputs, including the world’s largest organizational system for acquiring technology by all means possible and applying it for #military purposes; the world’s largest research and survey fleet, whose bathymetric analysis and mapping helps guide future submarine operations;31 and a national scientific system that provides globally-unparalleled incentives for world-class experts and their protégés to advance prioritized technological frontiers and explore the ocean depths."

Damn was this was all a master plan to get the jones act repealed

The United States has handed the Chinese an encyclopedia on its military doctrines. The war involving the US and Israel is being monitored and recorded in real time by LEO satellite constellations such as Jilin-1, which are even capable of capturing 4K UHD video. Today, China operates at least three LEO constellations comprising at least 300 satellites dedicated to espionage or dual-use purposes. From the images constantly released about American bases, it is clear that the Chinese are building a true encyclopedia on U.S. naval and air doctrines. Every ship positioning, fiend tactics, refueling time, ammunition resupply, everything is being monitored by Chinese satellites. This includes the exact location and behavior of air defenses, their mapped reaction times, missile trajectories, and reprogramming durations. Nothing escapes the Chinese gaze. In this conflict, they have already mapped and publicly released data on multiple American bases in the region, even identifying the exact number and models of aircraft on the ground. The war against Iran is giving the Chinese something they never had in the Ukrainian theater: the opportunity to study and document American forces in detail. To give you an idea, in 2025 the Chinese recorded a video of Atlanta’s airport purely to demonstrate their capability. I believe the same kind of videos are being produced daily on the American front against Iran. Never in history has a U.S conflict been observed from the skies at this level, both tactically and strategically. The price of the Iran war is high in many ways, as I have always said. And this single episode is giving the Chinese decades of planning and improvement in one go. (Atlanta Airport)

The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE.....

Matson's 2025 annual report shows that its three containerships being built at @PhillyShipyard now cost $335.3 million each (not including steel price adjustments, owner’s items, and capitalized interest). They are the most expensive containerships in the history of the world:

Carl Jung and the Trouble With Greenland: youtu.be/FRs5wiZxwEQ?si=JJ-W… A conversation on the Arctic, Western Hemisphere, Shadow Fleet, and Great Power Competition in General with the inimitable @AlexGabuev and his inscrutable #RussianSmile

What's driving great power competition in the Arctic today? And how do China and Russia perceive President Trump's approach? @IBKardon and @AlexGabuev discuss: youtube.com/watch?v=FRs5wiZx…