Backtest 6/10/26: B- Short 2022 Model Setup
Draw on Liquidity: There is a clear liquidity sweep of Asia & London highs at NY AM market open forming a Judas swing, followed by a strong displacement. PD array is drawn from London lows to the tip of Judas swing.
HTF Bias: Weekly Bias is bullish as price is expected to test the reaction of 1W bullish FVG mid-week. Daily bias is bearish due to a hot CPI & escalating geopolitical risks. Daily & weekly bias turned out to be correct.
TP: TP is targeted at London lows, which turned out to be correct.
Why is the setup not A ?
- MSS: There is a clear market structure shift as a swing low is formed taking out 09:33 AM low. However, the newly formed swing low is displaced very close to TP zone already.
- Entry: The entry would have been much cleaner if price re-tests the top 2 3m FVG after forming the swing low MSS. This would have aligned within the OTE zone and OB-. Entering in the discount zone of the PD array would have made the setup much more attractive.
- SL Placement: Placement of SL here impacts RR the most. If SL was placed slightly above the entry gap, RR would have been attractive at 6.53. However, there would have been a high risk of getting stopped out too quick in anticipation of re-testing other gaps above. On the other hand, if SL was placed slightly above the bottom 2 gaps, RR would have been 1.83. Justification for this decision would have been that price and swing lows were already formed in the premium area of the PD array, and thus the discount zone might not have been re-visited.
Concluding Thoughts: There were too many imperfections with the placement of the entry and SL, which impacted the overall rating of this setup. This is definitely a setup that I won't be taking when trading live as it is not a "high probability" one. I would have only taken this trade live if after the swing low was formed, price moves up to re-test FVGs near the OTE zone. This means that I would have waited in anticipation for this higher re-tests and therefore, I would not have entered at the bottom FVGs. Eventhough the setup can lead to a profitable trade, we can observe the cleanliness of setup starting from the entry point to TP point (very choppy rather than a directed move towards target).