Prediction. 1 year from now Caffeine will not run on the ICP blockchain. It will run on a cloud engine version of the ICP replica owned by Caffeine, running on AWS. Burning zero cycles or ICP.

This is the strongest feature of ICP

Internet Identity is DFINITY’s best product currently. Email login is great for adoption. They could have built this by 2022 if they had been laser focused.

ICP chart is expert mode. Someone should build this with @caffeineai

Huge miss-allocation of hundreds of millions of dollars by @dfinity product and growth departments over the past 5 years. By staying laser focused, we might have seen core improvements to II and the NNS earlier on, and a leaner but higher quality and more resilient ICP ecosystem

Hah. @caffeineai CTO essentially admitting building Caffeine wasn’t necessary. All they needed to write was an MCP server. So that’s $70M down the drain.

Internet Identity has made leaps and bounds of improvements since last year. It’s hard to imagine going back to v1.0

DFINITY had a massive layoff in April. DFINITY site says the team is 180 , but there are 116 only photos. A handful of those listed no longer work at DFINITY according to LinkedIn, with many publicly posting they were let go. My guess is DFINITY has 90 left. Will be 50 by EOY.

It’s simple supply and demand. There’s just too much liquid ICP supply held by DFINITY (tens of millions) and too much minted each month compared to the amount burned. Institutional liquidity is too smart to enter the market and get continuously dumped on. So retail gets pwned

DFINITY has tens of millions of $ICP ready to sell at any time

Primary use cases for crypto so far have been the black market, sanctions evasion, and gambling

Feels sort of crazy how much time and energy some people have put into pumping their memecoins over YEARS to make a few hundred bucks. Like you could just put those hours towards a job, invested or saved that money and come out way ahead plus contributed to your local economy.

Rich people don’t sell their assets, they take out loans against them. Now you can do that with your native Bitcoin.

ICP’S STRUCTURAL GROWTH BEYOND BOB When evaluating the Internet Computer’s network activity, it is easy to be distracted by the "BOB-mania”. However, to understand the true health of the ecosystem, one must look at what remains once the hype is stripped away. Our latest analysis of monthly cycle burn rates reveals a powerful narrative of resilience. At its peak, the bob.fun subnet was the undisputed engine of the network, accounting for ~80% of activity. Fast forward to Q1 2026, the landscape has fundamentally transformed. BOB now represents just under 6% of network usage. The most compelling insight isn't just that the network survived the post-hype slump—it’s the scale of the recovery. Since the stabilization period in mid-2025, the organic burn rate (excluding BOB) has climbed by 38.6%. Even more striking is the long-term shift: the "organic" baseline today is 4.2x higher than the entire network was before the BOB surge even began.

yes the use case of crypto is always about finance, and everything else is noise finance: asset issuing, launching, trading, lending/borrowing, ... asset: network coins, utility coins, memecoins, all tokenized rwa, ... non finance crypto is dead

Tbh this is where DFINITY’s growth team should have pivoted to. Not Caffeine and randos vibe coding a million shitty apps. But to technical teams who can accomplish a lot with AI tooling. You’d get a lot more bang for your buck with a grant these days.

ICP DeFi volume is primarily people swapping into and out of ICP against stables like ckUSDC, vCHF, and ckBTC. Protecting against volatility losses before they withdraw to exchanges. Most of ICP DeFi currently exists to sell ICP and gtfo. @ICPSwap is the most traded project.

ICP later is worth 22% less than ICP now.

On April 20th, 2026 the 8 year gang became the 2 year gang. Over the past month, the amount of new dissolving ICP has increased by 4M ICP. All of this is newly dissolving ICP is from 8 year -> 2 year neurons. It’s looking like April 2028 ICP price action will be a bloodbath 🫣

Same pattern, same result

Every time DFINITY lays off people we pump for a week or so and then dump after