๐จ Alert: Major escalation ahead!
We are finally decoupling.
1. Going to war against Iran with the US as a partner would be excellent militarily - but highly problematic under Trump.
2. In the end, it all depends on the IRGC. The enemy always gets a vote.
3. If the IRGC fires missiles at Israel, the response will be harsh.
Itโs important to understand what the IRGC has been trying to achieve:
A. They could have waited for the deal to be signed, knowing Israel would respond in Dahya if Hezbollah fired missiles into Israel.
B. Instead, to demonstrate their strength - and believing they had Trump on their side because he desperately wants a deal - they ordered Hezbollah to fire. They knew Israel would respond.
C. Their goal was to maneuver Trump exactly where he is now: forcing Israel to stand down. Classic escalation.
But hereโs what they failed to calculate:
**The decoupling between Trump and Netanyahu.**
The IRGC still hasnโt understood what Israel has become after October 7th:
1. We donโt really care what Trump says or what his personal financial interests are - the stock market, oil prices, or any deals of Mr .
@SteveWitkoff can have in Qatar.
2. We care about our security. We care about our School and Kindergarten Children. (got That .
@JDVance ?) - When Hezbollah fires rockets or even builds the capability to harm Israelis or invade (as they planned), we protect our civilians.
3. If the IRGC makes the mistake of trying to create a linkage - โIf Israel responds to Hezbollah, we will hit Israelโ โ they will quickly discover what the IDF can do when the US isnโt tying one hand behind our back.
For anyone who still hasnโt figured out what the next few hours hold: as I write this, Hezbollah has again fired on Israeli civilians in Manara and Kiryat Shmona. An Israeli response is coming, and the IRGC will have to decide.
The enemy always gets a vote.
But so do we.
The only one decoupling himself from the situation is Trump.
We live in the Middle East. Israel does not have the luxury of being separated from the rest of the world by two oceans.
Therefore, we fight.
Let me translate this headline from Israel - to those in the world media that had routinely ignored the situation:
"Alarms on the way to school:
Northern Israel children are under fire - two drones launched from Lebanon.
After hours of silence on the border, alarms sounded yesterday in Metula due to rocket fire from Lebanon.
This morning, two drones were launched as Israeli children make their way to school"
My suggestion to the Israeli goverment (in Short: Israel security first) is below ๐