Analyst in Fertilizers/Agriculture/Transportation. CFA. Views my own, not investment advice, bla bla bla. I'm here to share thoughts and learn
Joined August 2022
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173 Photos and videos
11 Sep 2023
Sorry, I've been quiet on ferts Twitt over the last month - working on other projects
Probably come back to posting in the future once I get everything else sorted out
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3 Aug 2023
In July, 🇺🇸 US retail #fertilizer prices continued to fall
The gap with FOB quotes in ports is narrowing, which is certainly good news for farmers
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2 Aug 2023
⚡ 🇷🇺Russia considers introducing new 8% export duty on #fertilizers:
• Starting from Sept, duration is 1.5 years
• All types of ferts to be affected
This will be in addition to the current duty of 23.5%, which is currently not in use as it only applies to prices above $450/t
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2 Aug 2023
The only source so far is Interfax article interfax.ru/russia/914353
However, they don't usually write bs
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2 Aug 2023
I guess this will be more than offset by the current depreciation of the ruble. So producers will not suffer losses and impact on global markets will not be great
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31 Jul 2023
🇷🇺Russia's #fertilizer production in June is out
The most important thing is the almost complete recovery of #potash for the third month in a row
However, I believe we are near the bottom in prices. Further decline might cut off Belarus, as it has high costs due to logistics
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10 Jul 2023
🇧🇷Brazil #fertilizer import in June seems to be weakening:
• Urea and phosphates volumes were well below historical figures
• While potash purchases remained high, they were not as high as they have been recently
Looks like DAP/MAP and MOP prices may soon lose their support
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4 Jul 2023
🇮🇳India's plan for #fertilizer import in July:
• Urea at 920kmt, in line with historical avg
• DAP at 940kmt, which is a lot. Partly due to increased consumption, partly due to stockpiling
• MOP at 315kmt, though at unpleasant price of $422/mt
Details👇
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3 Jul 2023
In June, 🇺🇸 US retail #fertilizer prices fell by 1-3%. Gap with FOB quotes in ports is still wide as inland logistics remain expensive
Coupled with recovery in crop prices, average affordability improved by 3%
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29 Jun 2023
🇷🇺Russia's #fertilizer production in May (proxy for export):
• Volumes of nitrogen and complex products (DAP/MAP, etc.) were at normal levels
• Potash output continued its recovery
I remind that producers expect exports to fully recover in 2Q-4Q23
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23 Jun 2023
🇨🇳China May-23 #fertilizer trade:
• Urea export remained depressed despite talks about loosening restrictions (should we expect growth in June then?)
• Phosphates, on the other hand, are off the leash. Definitely presses prices down
• Normal potash import
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11 Jun 2023
🇧🇷Brazil #fertilizer import in May:
• Large urea and potash volumes
• On the other hand, phosphate purchases are back to normal
I wonder if Brazil P imports normalize, will we see an acceleration in the decline of the P-prices in the near time?
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7 Jun 2023
A write-up on May #fertilizer prices:
Mostly down, still no signs of a possible rebound. Gas prices are falling, EU plants are restarting, Chinese export appears to be back
Details👇
ipostevoy.substack.com/p/fer…
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6 Jun 2023
"Canpotex has reached an agreement with China for #potash shipments through to Dec-23, at a price of $307/mt cfr"
Wow.. CRU expected it at $350/t, if I remember correctly. Also $115/mt lower than Indian contract
Looks very bearish
canpotex.com/news/canpotex-r…
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1 Jun 2023
🇷🇺Russia #fertilizer production in April:
• Potash has recovered to normal levels for the first time since Mar-22 (!!)
• Output of nitrogen and other ferts was also normal
Russian producers recently said that exports in 2Q-4Q23 could recover to the record levels of 2021
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31 May 2023
In May, US #fertilizer retail prices were mostly unchanged to April. I guess the system was still tight as buyers switched to just-in-time purchases
Unfortunately, crop prices continued to decline, so fertilizer affordability deteriorated
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23 May 2023
🇪🇺European gas prices have fallen to the levels of summer 2021, bringing #urea cash cost in the region to ~$280/mt (vs. $560 at the start of the year)
Another factor that prevents global nitrogen prices from rebounding
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22 May 2023
🇨🇳China #fertilizer trade in April:
• Export of urea and phosphates remained limited, with no visible changes. I heard talks that flows should start to recover soon
• Potash import was normal. They seem to enjoy buying spot and are in no rush to sign new contract
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9 May 2023
🇧🇷Brazil #fertilizer import in April:
• Urea volumes recovered to high levels
• Purchases of phosphates and potash remain elevated
Looks like Brazil will enter its application season with normal inventories and would not follow the path of the US, where prices surged recently
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