Independent analysis platform providing policymakers and media with factual insights into Iran’s political, economic, and social dynamics. FR : @ObservatoireIR

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The Islamic Republic and Oman affirm they will respect international law regarding the Strait of Hormuz The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, and his Oman counterpart, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, reaffirmed the commitment of their two countries to respect international law relating to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Omani news agency. During the telephone conversation, the two leaders also expressed "their hope that the upcoming phase will be marked by serious and diligent efforts by all parties to guarantee a favorable and sustainable environment for an effective and constructive political and diplomatic path, thereby preserving the security and stability of the region." #Iran
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US-Islamic Republic agreement to be signed friday at Bürgenstock Security Resort The Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed that the agreement between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic will be signed on Friday at the Bürgenstock mountain resort, near the city of Lucerne. This location has been presented as a suitable option for the security of the ceremony and, according to the Swiss Foreign Ministry, the choice of Bürgenstock was made at the suggestion of Pakistani and Qatari mediators, and with the consent of both the American and Islamic Republic sides. #Iran
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Israel continued to strike Lebanon despite warnings from the United States The Islamic Republic, speaking through its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, declared that the memorandum of understanding with the United States would only hold on the condition that the ceasefire also applies to Lebanon. Hezbollah's media relations office claims that the armed group received assurances from its Iranian ally that it will demand the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon during the next phase of negotiations with the United States. However, Israel launched several airstrikes today targeting various locations in southern Lebanon, notably several areas in the Nabatieh district, despite recent statements from Donald Trump, who asserted that he "is not satisfied" with the Israeli invasion and its management of Hezbollah, and stated that Prime Minister Netanyahu "must show more responsibility." #Iran
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Executions in Iran : The Islamic Republic claims new victims Early this morning, the death sentences of Javad Zamani and Abolfazl Saedi were carried out; two defendants in a security case in Shahroud, whom the judiciary of the Islamic Republic had accused of "war against God" and "corruption on Earth," using weapons, destroying property, and acting against internal security. The judiciary claims that the case files of these two individuals followed legal protocol; however, within the judicial structure of the Islamic Republic, this formula generally serves as a cover for closed-door trials, coerced confessions, and verdicts pronounced even before any real examination. #Iran
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The position of the Islamic Republic remains unchanged regarding Lebanon, but mostly regarding Hezbollah For the Islamic Republic, Lebanon and Iranian soil constitute one and the same front. The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, was clear on this point: "The official start of the memorandum will begin on Friday, and any attack against Lebanon from Friday onward will void this memorandum of understanding." Thus, Araghchi indicates that the Iranian government will not abandon its ally Hezbollah and, moreover, it will not abandon its influence in Lebanon. The Iranian government also considered that the memorandum of understanding provides for the end of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon ; an element that was entirely rejected by the Israeli administration. #Iran
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The lifting of sanctions against the Islamic Republic? Yesterday, the US administration declared that the United States will grant Iran, for the duration of the 60-day ceasefire extension, a waiver allowing it to sell oil. However, the lifting of sanctions, notably the unfreezing of Iranian assets abroad, will be gradual and will depend on the progress made during the next stages of negotiations. The Iranian Mehr news agency claimed that the memorandum of understanding provides for the unfreezing of 24 billion dollars in Iranian assets abroad; an element that has not been confirmed by the US administration, nor by the official publication of the text of the memorandum of understanding. #Iran
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What about the nuclear aspects of the memorandum of understanding? The final text of the memorandum of understanding has not yet been made public, and questions remain regarding the nuclear aspects. J.D. Vance stated that the agreement would allow the return of nuclear inspectors to Iran, "The IAEA and the United States are going to help Iran destroy its highly enriched uranium stockpile, and that is clearly stipulated in the memorandum of understanding," adding that a date for nuclear inspections could be set on Friday in Geneva. The Iranian authorities had indicated, however, that negotiations on the nuclear issue would be held after the signing of the initial agreement. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council declared yesterday that "negotiations toward a final agreement will be postponed until the other party has fulfilled its obligations under the initial agreement." #Iran
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First results of the Tehran-Washington memorandum of understanding : Iranian vessels pass through the Strait of Hormuz Iranian vessels and oil tankers were able to transit through the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours; Tehran presented the lifting of the blockade as the very first step toward moving forward with the memorandum of understanding. Although deep mistrust prevails among the population, which demands concrete guarantees regarding the fulfillment of commitments, the resumption of Iranian maritime traffic is a sign of an economy that will gradually revive. #Iran
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Arrests for social media posts continue in Iran The Tehran Intelligence Police announced on Monday, June 15, 2026 (25 Khordad 1405), the arrest of three citizens accused of publishing content on social networks. The Mehr News Agency, quoting the Greater Tehran Intelligence Police, reported that these individuals were identified and detained following the monitoring of cyberspace activities. According to the police, the detainees are accused of insulting sacred values and what has been termed "defenders of the homeland" through their social media posts. #Iran
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Iranian banking systems still disrupted Despite banking officials' announcements regarding the resolution of disruptions in the services of Bank Melli, Tejarat, Saderat, and Tose'e Saderat, the Fars News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, reported that a portion of these banks' online and remote services is still experiencing disruptions. Earlier, these banks had announced in separate statements that all card services, internet systems, and mobile banking applications had returned to normal. Fars reported that while card-based services at point-of-sale (POS) terminals and ATMs of these banks are currently active, a portion of the internet and remote services remains disrupted. #Iran
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What did Trump say about the agreement with the Islamic Republic? Donald Trump stated, alongside French President Emmanuel Macron at the G7 summit, that “the agreement is fully signed” and that the text would be published “very shortly.” A senior U.S. official had previously stated that Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, had signed the agreement yesterday. According to Donald Trump, the Islamic Republic has reportedly agreed not to possess a nuclear weapon, promising that this stipulation would be enforced through "strict monitoring." France, the United Kingdom, and around twenty other countries will lead a maritime and naval effort to coordinate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Emmanuel Macron declared. #Iran
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Doubts persist over the individuals making up the delegations that will sign the agreement in Switzerland The US Vice President states that the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States will be signed on Friday in Switzerland, in the presence of Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. JD Vance said that "many details of the agreement are not yet resolved" but the US expects the Strait of Hormuz to be "open in the long term without tolls." However, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic stated that it is not yet clear who will sign the memorandum on behalf of the regime. Esmaeil Baghaei also emphasized that the iranian regime "is not seeking to collect tolls" but will receive "fees for providing services." #Iran
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Four European countries say they are ready to lift some of the sanctions against the Islamic Republic The United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy have announced that following the agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic to end the war, they are ready to lift sanctions in exchange for steps taken by the Islamic Republic regarding its nuclear program. According to Reuters, these four European countries emphasized in a joint statement that the Islamic Republic "must never acquire a nuclear weapon" and added that they are ready to cooperate with the United States, the Islamic Republic, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to achieve this goal. This stance is announced while the full text of the US-Iran agreement has not yet been published, and the details regarding nuclear commitments, the timeline for implementing the deal, and the manner of lifting sanctions remain unclear. #Iran
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Maritime sector welcomes Strait of Hormuz reopening deal with caution Bloomberg reported that the announcement of a framework agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was met with caution by shipowners and traders. The shipping industry is awaiting the announcement of transit details and remains uncertain about how safe passage through this route will be guaranteed. According to data from Kpler, nearly 600 ships are still stranded in the Persian Gulf and stand ready to leave. Shipowners state that the safety of the route, the potential presence of mines, insurance coverage, and how to manage passage through such a narrow corridor remain unclear. #Iran
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Trump's 60 - day deadline for the Islamic Republic's nuclear dossier Donald Trump has set a 60-day deadline for Iran to reach a final nuclear deal, warning that military strikes could resume if it fails. Washington demands strict limits on uranium enrichment and is negotiating a 15-to-20-year freeze. If Tehran misses the deadline, Trump envisions two options: resuming military actions or having the US act as the "guardian of the Middle East" in exchange for 20% of the region's revenues. #Iran
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European reactions following the announcement of a framework agreement between Tehran and Washington Keir Starmer stated that he "warmly welcomed" the announced agreement, calling it a "very important step forward to end the war, ensure regional stability, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz." Emmanuel Macron welcomed the agreement and called for its swift and full implementation by all parties concerned. He added that the international mission established in cooperation with the United Kingdom was ready to support this process of resuming maritime traffic without restrictions or taxes. Nuclear aspects were also addressed by the Chief of Diplomacy Kaja Kallas, who states that the agreement "can create the vital space for more in-depth negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and other crucial issues," and by Ursula von der Leyen, who declared that the agreement "should put an end to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic programs and its destabilizing activities in the region." #Iran
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Conclusion of a MoU between the Islamic Republic and the United States, next meeting on Friday. The Islamic Republic confirms it has concluded a memorandum of understanding with the United States to end fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon. U.S. President Donald Trump announces the lifting of Washington’s blockade on Iranian ports and declares that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on Friday, once the agreement is signed in Switzerland, given that mine clearance operations still need to be carried out in the area. Qatari mediators state they are holding separate meetings with American and Iranian officials in Doha this week to resolve critical differences and finalize the text. #Iran
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The asset seizure policy continues in Iran, this time for "filming projectile impacts" The chief justice of Kurdistan province announced the seizure of assets belonging to 19 citizens accused of taking videos and photos of projectile impact sites during the war period. Hossein Hosseini stated that these citizens were sending the videos and photos to satellite channels and networks he described as dependent on "the enemy." He added that this severe penalty was applied based on the law known as the "Law on Aggravating Punishment for Espionage." #Iran
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CENTCOM : Maritime blockade against the Iranian regime continues. CENTCOM announced that in the continuation of the maritime blockade of the Islamic Republic in the Strait of Hormuz, "US Navy ships and warplanes" continue to patrol the waters of the region. Donald Trump had also specified that the naval blockade remains in place, whether or not the parties are closing in on a "deal." #Iran
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According to Araghchi, the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" has never been closer to being finalized Abbas Araghchi declared that the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding," aimed at ending the war by the United States and Israel against Iran, "has never been closer to being finalized." He added that the Iranian government would share all the details of this agreement with the public at the appropriate time; just an hour ago, Donald Trump criticized what he called leaks of parts of the deal to the media by Iran, stating that the Islamic Republic's stance regarding the agreement "has no relation to reality." #Iran
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