#ONStorm #ONwx ⚡️ Isolated Severe Weather Risk in Deep Southwestern Ontario This Evening
Heads up, Deep Southwestern Ontario! We could be looking at some localized pop-up thunderstorms over the next few hours. In addition, a more substantial area of severe weather is expected to develop across Michigan this evening, with some of that activity potentially crossing the border later tonight.
We’re already seeing a few isolated cells developing around Detroit and into the Windsor-Essex region. So far, these storms appear fairly elevated, meaning they’re struggling to fully establish themselves. Environment Canada has just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the Windsor area, suggesting further strengthening remains possible.
Storms like these can be particularly challenging to forecast, as weather models often struggle to accurately capture their development. As a result, it’s difficult to know whether these storms will remain elevated or transition into stronger, surface-based thunderstorms.
If some of these cells are able to intensify over the coming hours, the environment would support a slight risk of damaging wind gusts, large hail, localized flooding, and even an isolated tornado.
One of the many ingredients we monitor is something called the Violent Tornado Parameter (VTP), which is overlaid on our map. As you can see, values are reaching 2 across portions of Windsor and Lake St. Clair. This indicates that the atmosphere is capable of supporting rotating storms. The missing piece right now is whether thunderstorms can fully develop and take advantage of those conditions.
At this point, any severe weather threat appears most likely to remain focused on the Windsor, Leamington, Chatham and Sarnia regions.
We’re also monitoring another potential round of storms later tonight, around midnight, associated with a decaying cluster currently expected to move out of Michigan. Most models weaken this cluster as it approaches the border, but if it holds together longer than expected and pushes farther east, some damaging wind gusts could accompany it.
As always, we’ll be watching radar closely throughout the evening and will keep you updated as conditions evolve!
- Brennen