Sry for low activity on twitter, VIP has been eating good tho

Today, a Polymarket user reportedly made ~$22,000 from a single CS2 match — not by predicting the winner, but by exploiting a rule. There might be a serious issue in Polymarket’s CS2 markets. It revolves around one specific rule: 👉 If a match ends in a forfeit → payout is split 50/50. At first glance, this sounds reasonable. But in practice, it completely breaks the risk model. Example: If one side has $90 bet on it and the other side has $10, there is $100 total in action. If the match is forfeited → the $100 is split evenly: → $50 to each side. That means: The person who only bet $10 on the underdog walks away with $50. → a $40 profit from a match that was never even played. This is where the problem starts. Right now, there are many open / “pay-to-play” CS2 LAN tournaments: • anyone can register a team • skill levels vary massively • many teams are extremely low quality We’re already seeing cases where: • teams register • never show up • and forfeit their matches At the same time, these matches are listed on Polymarket — and these teams are always massive underdogs. So what happens? If you bet on these weak teams: → you don’t need them to win → you don’t even need them to play You just need them to forfeit. And when they do: → Polymarket settles 50/50 → underdog bettors profit massively This creates a very dangerous incentive structure. Because realistically: The players themselves — or people close to them — often know in advance if a team is not going to show up. At that point, this isn’t just a market inefficiency. It opens the door to extremely easy manipulation: → you don’t need to fix a match → you just don’t show up In traditional betting markets, forfeits usually result in: 👉 all bets being voided and refunded Polymarket does NOT do this — and that’s exactly why this exists. Example: G2 vs Carrito Spain Carrito Spain was a massive underdog. They forfeited the match. → market settled 50/50. This is where the ~$22,000 profit came from. (Screenshot) This isn’t about predicting outcomes anymore. It’s about exploiting a rule. If this continues, we could see: • systematic abuse of forfeits • distorted pricing in low-tier matches • real integrity risks in open CS2 tournaments This should be fixed urgently. At minimum: forfeits should void the market — not settle 50/50. RTs appreciated 🙏 Would appreciate visibility on this. @Polymarket

Good reminder that being knowledgeable about the game doesn't directly correlate with being good at turning your analysis into good bets. True for pretty much every sport. (Of course Falcons might win but good luck turning that into accurate percentages)

👀

Thank you @NIP

eating good lately

watching this with money on HLE felt so good man, faker my goat😍

KICKOFF FUTURES RECAP 🔥🔥🔥 Vitality's EMEA wins means that the discord secured 11.75u on Kickoff futures 🤑 link in bio if you want in on this, #MastersBangkok2025 coming soon

Might have had BFX 1.5 @ 5.80 just to lose from this gamestate...

League of Legends is now on the menu!

January VIP-ad, VIP will include modeled picks for CS, Valorant and League, past results and more details on the Discord server in bio!

October VIP results: 23.55 / 12.5% ROI / 57W-60L, sheet below👇 The VIP costs 40€/45€ depending on your payment method and we also offer a 1 week free trial for new members, just join the Discord server and dm me! docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

FAZE HATERS ITS YOUR TIME SANGAL LOVERS ITS YOUR TIME SANGAL 1.5 @ 2.5✅SANGAL ML @ 8.15✅

Monthly VIP ad: Results so far YTD: Overall: 126.36u / 6.83% ROI August: 24.72u / 11.21% ROI VIP includes modeled CS2 picks from me and @IamAlpha_ modeled Valorant picks from @EIiMTZ Feel free to dm me about any questions :) Discord link in bio, free 1 week trials

Plans for ESL Pro League S20, starts on the 3rd: - Pre-event tier list - All picks for free on Twitter - Percentage estimates for all games on gameday - Free futures (B365 market, might be available elsewhere) Follow me to not miss any of the action ;)

Stats June 19th - July 19th: Really happy with the performance of the model, excited to continue with playoffs and head into international events Top 5 Leagues - EMEA East Surge: 12 - 3, 19.4u Brazil Tier 2: 8 - 10, 12.06u Korea Tier 2: 5 - 4, 9u Thailand Tier 2: 7 - 6, 8.28u EMEA Tier 1: 10 - 13, 5.13u

My own bets for the first round of #EWC G2 ml (vs Mongolz) 1u @ 1.83 - 58% Furia ml (vs Navi) 0.75u @ 3.5 - 33% Vitality -1.5 (vs M80) 1.5u @ 1.52 - 70%