In Order to truly understand #bitcoin , you need to first understand Inflation. Here's my 3-point summary: 1. The Fiat Monetary System that we currently live in with free floating abundant currencies (i.e. not pegged to any base Money like Gold) forces you to mis-price Capital.

Hype is a queue. Scarcity is a door. The crowd confuses the two every cycle — then re-queues a year late at 5x the price.

.@RaoulGMI, The East India Company accepted its charter willingly. The Crown offered a monopoly; the Company took it. Consensual from day one. That is not what happened here. Anthropic signed a $200M Pentagon contract. When the government tried to expand it to cover autonomous weapons and mass domestic surveillance of American citizens, Anthropic refused — publicly, in writing, on principle. Hegseth gave them a deadline. They didn't comply. Trump ordered all federal agencies to immediately cease using Anthropic's products. The Pentagon designated them a supply chain risk — a label previously reserved for foreign adversary contractors, never used against a domestic American firm. Anthropic then sued for illegal retaliation. A federal judge agreed and granted a preliminary injunction. The appeals court fight is still live. That was February–April. This week, the same hostile government issued the first-ever export control directive for LLM access — pulling Fable 5 and Mythos 5 from every customer on earth with four hours' notice and no stated reason. This is not a company accepting a charter. This is a company that drew a moral line, got blacklisted, won round one in court, and is still fighting — while the same adversary just proved it can switch off its most capable products globally, without notice, whenever it chooses. On "acceleration": Raoul's thesis requires two parties who trust each other enough to reach a stable arrangement. Look at what this week actually proved. Anthropic was caught covertly limiting Fable 5's capabilities for frontier AI researchers — silently, with no disclosure. Backlash forced an apology. Three days later the government pulled the models entirely. Same seven days: Anthropic proved it will secretly shape what its model does without telling users. The government proved it will shut down a frontier model globally with four hours' notice and no reason given. Neither party trusts the other. The EIC charter worked because both parties had aligned incentives. What exists here is a coercion arrangement between legal adversaries who both demonstrated bad faith in the same week. That is not a foundation for acceleration. On TAM: This is the first time in history the US has issued an export control directive for LLM access. Any company outside the US that built on Anthropic's API just discovered their infrastructure can be pulled mid-business-day by a government they didn't elect, for reasons they won't be told. That sovereign risk is now permanently priced into every non-US AI procurement decision. Raoul calls it a market wobble. It is a structural event. On open source as the escape: @svembu said it the moment this broke: "Technology is the ultimate weapon. Globalisation is dead." He's right — and he also understands why open source alone doesn't solve it. The model layer can be open. The infrastructure beneath it cannot. The chips are US-controlled. The fabs are in Taiwan and subject to US export controls. The cloud running most open source inference is AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud — all US-domiciled, all subject to the same sovereign intervention Anthropic just experienced. A DeepSeek model on US-controlled H100s through AWS is one export directive away from the same Friday evening disruption. Where Raoul is right: His geopolitical read is correct. The government wants privileged access, not shutdown. The 30–60 day technical lead framing is exactly how the national security establishment thinks. The "too big to fail" backstop will emerge. The Great Game of nations through technology firms is the correct frame for the decade ahead. His error is not the destination. It is the map. The arrangement Raoul describes will likely arrive. But here is what forces it — and what he does not mention. The US sovereign balance sheet carries honest liabilities north of $142 trillion. The debt cycle reset is not coming. It is here. A government navigating forced Treasury selling, a Fed that must monetise what no one else will buy, and an inflation print already above mandate cannot simultaneously afford a prolonged war with the only technology firms capable of delivering the productivity miracle its own Fed Chair has publicly bet on. The fiscal pressure does not care about the Anthropic lawsuit. It does not care about the EIC analogy. It arrives on its own timeline — and that timeline is shorter than the court case. That is what ultimately forces the arrangement. Not good faith. Not shared vision. The arithmetic. The outcome arrives somewhere between arrival and exhaustion — squeezed there by a debt clock that neither Raoul's charter nor Anthropic's lawyers can stop. That is the honest timeline. Raoul knows this too. The question worth asking is why not the acceptance. — @IndiaBitcoinMan

Friedman examined monetary data from every major economy across four centuries. His conclusion: Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Not caused by greedy corporations. Not by oil shocks. Not by global factors outside a government's control. One cause. Every time. Without exception. The government printed more money than the economy produced. The rupee has lost 99.5% of its purchasing power since 1947 — not because of bad luck. Because every government in New Delhi chose, consistently and deliberately, to print. Friedman called this what it is: not monetary policy. Monetary politics. @deepakshenoy

Friedman's most devastating framework. There are only 4 ways to spend money: 1. Your money, on yourself → you care about cost AND quality. Most efficient. 2. Your money, on someone else → you care about cost, not quality. 3. Someone else's money, on yourself → you care about quality, not cost. 4. Someone else's money, on someone else → you care about neither. Category 4 is government. Category 4 is public procurement. Category 4 is most of what the state does with your tax rupees. Every rupee that passes through the government moves from Category 1 toward Category 4. Not corruption. Not incompetence. The category.

Pick up a pencil. Nobody on earth knows how to make it. Not one person. The wood: Pacific Northwest. The graphite: Sri Lanka. The eraser: Indonesia. The tiny metal ring holding the eraser: Brazil. None of these people know each other. None of them planned to collaborate. None of them wanted to make a pencil. They responded to prices. The price system coordinated thousands of people across dozens of countries, speaking hundreds of languages, without a single meeting, memo, or ministry. If no one person can make a pencil — what makes anyone think a government committee can run an economy?