I just took a NO position on an official US Iran ceasefire by March 31 on Polymarket. Entry around 69c. My reasoning is basically the same as for the March 15 market. Nothing meaningful has changed. Trump keeps demanding full nuclear concessions. Strikes are still happening almost every day. Neither side looks ready to slow things down. Talks are going nowhere and mediators have not moved the needle. And the resolution requires an official public agreement. Right now there is not even a hint of that. Market still prices YES around 25 percent. To me that feels high for March.

I just took a NO position on an official US Iran ceasefire by March 31 on Polymarket. Entry around 69c. My reasoning is basically the same as for the March 15 market. Nothing meaningful has changed. Trump keeps demanding full nuclear concessions. Strikes are still happening almost every day. Neither side looks ready to slow things down. Talks are going nowhere and mediators have not moved the needle. And the resolution requires an official public agreement. Right now there is not even a hint of that. Market still prices YES around 25 percent. To me that feels high for March.

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🧵 My take on the Polymarket question: “Will Iran close the Strait by March 31?” — I’m betting NO. Yes, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have issued very strong warnings and attacks have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Many companies have pulled vessels, and insurers are canceling war risk cover - essentially making the area too risky for normal traffic right now. But a true 80% sustained drop in moving averages caused directly by Iran’s actions - that’s a high bar. Shipping data shows near-halt activity at the moment, but that’s largely due to multiple parties choosing safety first - not an enforced legal blockade. Fully closing the Strait would hurt Iran’s own export economy and risk broad military escalation. Tehran also relies on that route for its oil trade, including shipments to big partners. Right now we’re seeing a de-facto disruption, not a sustained, enforced, measurable collapse as defined by the market. So my view is that by March 31 the conditions for a “Yes” don’t seem likely, even if tension and delays remain. I think the market may be pricing emotion and risk premiums - not the technical trigger needed to resolve YES. 🔍 So I’m leaning NO - shipping will still find some way to move or resume de-facto once immediate pressure fades.

Nobody noticed this guy on Polymarket yet. 36 predictions. That’s it. Almost $933K profit. Biggest hit alone was $319K and he kept stacking wins like it was nothing. Sports markets printing: $297K → $616K $172K → $379K $162K → $311K TL;DR: 36 trades → nearly $1M profit

Tried my hand at some $BTC futures Most of the time it was small swings Then one move just took off, climbed way faster than expected Perfect chance to test your luck with @betfury_gaming and see how far it can go

Locked some BFG instead of flipping it again. Figured I’d try the slower route for once. APY looks decent, but I’m more interested in how it plays out over time. This plays can work better with @betfury_gaming

Locked some $ETH for the long term. Just letting it compound quietly. Sometimes the calm plays pay the most with @betfury_gaming

Finally caught one of those sessions where everything just lines up. Most of the time it’s small moves and nothing special. Then one game shifts the pace completely. Watched the total climb way faster than expected. betfury.tv/InkByte

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FINALLY hit that crazy multiplier on Plinko. 39 balls did nothing. Then one drop LANDED ON 41X Thought this stuff only happened in clips. Guess not. Link: betfury.tv/InkByte

Vitalik Buterin just placed $148,000 on @PolymarketTrade betting that the US won’t confirm the existence of aliens before 2027. Creator of Ethereum betting on “no aliens” is not something I had on my 2026 bingo card. Are we backing him on this one?