Enjoyed the conversation a lot but why do tech investors always feel the need to come up with a metric that theoretically simplifies business quality?
The prior rule of 40 (growth margin) was terrible in its own right because it more or less claims that you can freely interchange growth and margin, which is certainly not the case. Would you rather own:
1. A 30% growth business generating 10% margins
2. A 0% growth business generating 40% margins?
I know what I’d rather own and it’s not even close, but both screen as rule of 40 companies. The case is even worse when one considers that margins tend to be adjusted in many cases.
The new rule of 40 discussed here (proportion of AI revenue AI market share) doesn’t even have a profitability metric because most AI-native business are not yet generating profits (who knows what the future holds, though)
Don’t know what to think about it, but either way, enjoyed the conversation
My conversation with Alex Sacerdote, founder of Whale Rock Capital Management.
Alex runs more than $17B and has been one of the best performing tech investors for years, though he keeps a low public profile.
As you'll hear, he is singular in how he thinks about investing through technology cycles.
For over 25 years, he has built his entire investment framework around a single idea, the S-curve.
We discuss:
- The AI L-Curve
- When to buy into an S-curve and when to sell out
- The de-commoditization of data center hardware
- Why he went net short software
- His two models for tech adoption
- Finding alpha
Enjoy!
Timestamps
0:00 Intro
9:55 AI's L-Curve
19:31 Whale Rock's S-Curve Playbook
26:14 Spotting Inflection Points
32:02 Finding AI Winners
40:04 AI vs Software
48:13 The Hardware Renaissance
58:04 Why Investors Miss AI
1:05:18 Whale Rock's Research Machine