#OnETNOW | Crisil upgrades Muthoot Microfin rating What factors led to this upgrade? "This was long overdue..." Sadaf Sayeed of @MuthootMicrofin explains, also revising their growth outlook Full interview - youtube.com/watch?v=Tlh65Pr_… @hershsayta @sajeetkm @Sadafsayeed #StockMarket

Big milestone for Balaji Amines 👏 The company has officially commissioned India’s first commercial-scale DME (Dimethyl Ether) plant with a capacity of 1,00,000 TPA. Why does this matter? DME can be blended with LPG and has the potential to reduce India’s dependence on imported fuel over time. A strong step towards cleaner energy alternatives and energy self-reliance 🇮🇳 Interesting to see an Indian chemical company not just talking about new-age chemicals but actually building capabilities ahead of the curve. Also worth noting BAL is positioning itself aggressively in EV battery chemicals alongside this development. Sometimes the biggest opportunities are created quietly, one plant at a time. 🚀 #BalajiAmines #DME #CleanEnergy #EV #ChemicalSector #IndiaGrowth

The Rupee may have already bottomed. Here's my thesis 👇 Even as foreign investors were dumping Indian stocks through early 2026, they were quietly buying Indian government bonds at the same time. FIIs were not leaving India because they had lost faith in the economy. They were rotating out of expensive equities into safer sovereign debt. This is exactly why the RBI reforms hit so fast. The Rs 8795 crore that flowed in within days of the announcement was not new money suddenly discovering India. It was money already sitting at the gate, waiting for the friction to disappear. What India Just Did 1⃣ Zero withholding tax on G-Sec interest and zero capital gains on government bonds, retroactive from April 2025. You already know this. But what most people are missing is everything below. 2⃣ Long dated bonds of 15, 30 and 40 year maturity are now fully open to foreign investors with no quota or cap. This sounds technical but the implications are massive. Global pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are sitting on trillions of dollars and they are legally required to hold very long dated assets to match their own long term liabilities. China spent 20 years building infrastructure to attract exactly this class of investor and still only has 2 to 3% foreign ownership in its bond market. India just opened the same door in one policy move. 3⃣ The RBI is absorbing the full currency hedging cost on fresh NRI dollar deposits until September 2026. Indian banks can now offer NRIs 5.5 to 6% on dollar deposits versus 4.2% on US Treasuries. That gap is close to a free lunch. The implication most people are not talking about is what happens when $40 to $45 billion of those NRI dollars convert into rupee deposits domestically. Indian banks have been running a dangerously wide credit-deposit gap, loan growth at 16% with deposits lagging badly. These inflows synthetically close that gap by an estimated Rs 1 lakh crore. Banks face less pressure to hike deposit rates. Borrowing costs across the whole economy quietly fall without the RBI cutting the repo rate even once. 4⃣ State owned companies are being incentivized to borrow dollars overseas at subsidized rates and convert them domestically. This pumps dollar supply directly into the Indian interbank market and supports the Rupee from the supply side. 5⃣ Indian exporters must now repatriate their foreign currency earnings within 9 months instead of 15. More dollars entering the system sooner. Simple but effective. 6⃣ NRIs and Overseas Citizens of India can now invest higher amounts in listed Indian stocks without needing to register with SEBI. This matters more than it looks. For decades the SEBI registration requirement acted as a genuine deterrent for diaspora capital. India has an estimated $2 trillion diaspora wealth pool sitting globally. Even a marginal increase in the fraction of that money flowing into domestic equities is a structural demand tailwind. This is slow burning but directionally it reduces India's dependence on institutional FII flows for equity market stability. What the Projections Say SBI Ecowrap estimates $55 to $65 billion in total inflows through FY27. If even a majority of this materializes India flips from a projected Balance of Payments deficit of $65 to $70 billion into a surplus of $5 to $10 billion. The Rupee stabilizes around 92 to 93 organically, without the RBI draining its reserves to defend it. The Part Most People Are Still Missing The government quietly granted the Bank for International Settlements, essentially the central bank of central banks, a special tax exempt status. This sounds like a footnote. It is not. Bloomberg's Global Aggregate Index, the most tracked fixed income benchmark in the world with trillions in passive capital benchmarked to it, requires Indian bonds to be settleable through Euroclear. Euroclear needs the BIS to be able to participate without tax friction. India just solved that. Analysts estimate Bloomberg inclusion brings in another $7 to $20 billion in purely passive, permanent capital. India already got into JP Morgan's index in June 2024 and FTSE Russell in September 2025. Bloomberg is the final gate and it just got unlocked. The Risk Worth Taking Seriously Full openness cuts both ways. India has dismantled its capital control shock absorbers. If the Fed pivots hawkish or global sentiment turns, the same passive funds flowing in can be algorithmically forced to sell Indian bonds at scale. That kind of outflow would have been structurally contained two years ago. It will not be now. India traded its defensive wall for a seat at the global table. The next 12 to 18 months will be the real verdict. The Bottom Line India stopped playing defense and started playing offense for global capital. The Rupee at 96.90 may well have been the peak pain. The early data is already saying so.

Let's talk about Zaggle once again at ₹200 and ~₹2,700 Cr mcap and why i feel this is a great deal at this price. Long post so hold your horses and like it if you find some value from this. The stock has been absolutely hammered, so first let's understand what went wrong. It all started with the QIP at ₹523.2/share during the peak of the bull market. Looking back, management was actually spot on in raising capital at those levels. They built a solid cash reserve and institutional ownership went up to ~23%. Fast forward to today and FIIs have been exiting aggressively. Not only did the holding percentage fall, but the number of FPIs holding Zaggle dropped from 74 to 52 in the March 2026 quarter. That means 22 foreign institutions completely exited. DIIs also cut their stake from ~14% to ~7%. Now the interesting part. Who's still holding? • Promoters increased stake from 44.13% to 44.29% through open market purchases • Ashish Kacholia continues to hold 2.23% • ValueQuest Scale Fund still holds 1.71% So why isn't the selling getting absorbed? From what I could gather, there are four major concerns. 1⃣Negative cash flows and low ROCE 2⃣Dice acquisition 3⃣AI fears 4⃣Management being everywhere on TV Let's go one by one. 1. Cash Flows and ROCE - Most people look at the numbers and conclude that Propel is the problem. They're not entirely wrong. Propel generates only ~₹45 Cr of net revenue while locking up a lot of working capital, which suppresses cash flows and ROCE. The obvious question becomes: Why not just shut it down? Because that's where things get interesting. Around 90% of spends on Propel happen through prepaid network cards. The economics from these card swipes are highly profitable, but accounting rules classify that revenue under Program Fees and not Propel revenue. So if Zaggle shuts Propel, they don't magically become a cash rich business overnight. They end up killing the engine that drives a huge chunk of Program Fees revenue. Propel is basically the entry gate into the ecosystem. A company comes for rewards management, gets deeply integrated into the platform and then Zaggle starts cross selling products like Zoyer and Save. What most people miss is that cash isn't permanently stuck. It's largely a timing issue. Unlike businesses where receivables are trapped for years, Zaggle gets its money back in roughly 60 days. And here's the beauty. As growth slows down and the business matures, cash flow automatically improves. At a 6% margin, the business can sustain roughly 45% annual growth without creating incremental cash stress. At a 7% margin, that number moves closer to 55%. So when Propel eventually matures, cash flow positivity should naturally follow. Mere hisaab se this concern is a lot bigger on paper than it is in reality. 2. Dice Acquisition Initially, the acquisition was supposed to happen at ₹123 Cr. That looked expensive. Eventually, they got it done at ₹68 Cr. What did they actually buy? The codebase. The customers. The engineering talent. As someone working in tech, I can tell you one thing. People massively underestimate the cost of building software from scratch. The cost isn't just salaries. It's failed iterations, delays, bugs, hiring mistakes and execution risk. The market's bigger concern is the additional engineering workforce impacting margins. My rough estimate is that the net employee addition is around 50 people. Even at ₹20L average CTC, we're talking about ~₹10 Cr annual cost. That's roughly a 40 to 50 bps drag on margins in worse case. Nothing dramatic. And if Dice revenues continue growing, even that drag could largely disappear. Again, not thesis breaking. 3. AI Will Disrupt SaaS We've been hearing this for years now. Meanwhile software companies across the US continue to grow. AI will change workflows. AI will change how software is built. But AI killing SaaS altogether doesn't seem to be playing out. Not losing sleep over this one. 4. Management on TV I know many investors dislike this. Personally, I think this is a relatively new management team trying to defend the narrative around the company. Would I worry if promoters were selling while giving interviews every week? Absolutely. But promoters are actually buying from the market. So for now, I don't consider this a major red flag. Now let's look at the numbers. FY26: Revenue ₹1,908 Cr EBITDA ₹185 Cr PAT ₹139 Cr Management is guiding for roughly 40% revenue growth. Since they haven't missed revenue guidance post listing, let's assume they deliver. FY27 could look something like: Revenue ~₹2,700 Cr Even if margins contract by ~30 bps, EBITDA margin ~9.4% EBITDA ~₹253 Cr PAT ~₹184 Cr At the current market cap, FY27 PE comes to roughly 14x. PEG comes to around 0.4. That's honestly quite attractive. And once Dice integration is behind them, operating leverage should start kicking in from FY28 onwards 🚀 Can the market disagree? Of course. Can the stock remain cheap for longer? Absolutely. But at ₹200, the risk reward looks significantly better than it did at ₹523. One last thing. Whenever a stock falls, people immediately say FIIs and DIIs sold, kuch toh soch samajh ke hi becha hoga. Maybe. But if they were always right, would they have participated in the ₹523 QIP in the first place? That answer, I'll leave to you.