CFB Analytics |🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge
Joined June 2020
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15 Sep 2023
📊How I Perform Opponent Adjustments
▫️Treat each play as a unique matchup
▫️Use Ridge Regression to solve play's resulting EPA given the Offense, Defense, & league-wide homefield advantage
▫️FBS vs FBS games only
▫️Method & code below:
blog.collegefootballdata.com…
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Jun 3
Just dumped pretty much all my Recruit Expected Value analysis I've ever done in this thread
- Position
- Height, Weight, & Age
- Recruiting Service
- Location & School Type
- Historic Performance
23 Aug 2024
📊Recruit Expected Value v3
▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit
▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level":
- #1 Recruit is worth ~20X
- Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X
- Other 5 Star: 5-8X
- 4 Stars: 1-5X
▫️Spend NIL accordingly
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23 Aug 2024
📊Recruit Expected Value v3
▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit
▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level":
- #1 Recruit is worth ~20X
- Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X
- Other 5 Star: 5-8X
- 4 Stars: 1-5X
▫️Spend NIL accordingly
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Jun 3
Historic Expected Value Classes
x.com/JBudDavis/status/18701…
20 Dec 2024
📊Historic Draft Value By Recruiting Class
▫️Alabama 2017 is BY FAR the GOAT
▫️Florida 2010 highest Expected DV but no hardware (thanks WM)
▫️Actual DV above on near Expected DV = higher title likelihood.
▫️No title-certainty for high level of Actual or Expected DV
▫️Poor USC
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Jun 3
Recruiting Class EV to National Title Win Rate Analysis
(pre-Indiana)
x.com/JBudDavis/status/18701…
20 Dec 2024
📊Title Win Rate by Class Expected Draft Value
▫️From 100-300 EDV: linear increase of 0-20% Title Win Rate. 10 pts of EDV worth 1% increase in Title Likelihood
▫️Above 350 Win Rate increases rapidly, with 10 pts of EDV worth 3% increase in Title Likelihood
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Jun 3
📊2027 Recruiting Class Expected Value
June Update
▫️Top 5: TAMU, OU, TT, Miami, Florida
▫️Best OFF Class: Florida
▫️Best DEF Class: TAMU
▫️Best Trench: TAMU
▫️Best Skill: Miami
▫️Notable: UCLA, VT, Alabama
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Jun 3
HS only. Details here
x.com/JBudDavis/status/18270…
23 Aug 2024
📊Recruit Expected Value v3
▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit
▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level":
- #1 Recruit is worth ~20X
- Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X
- Other 5 Star: 5-8X
- 4 Stars: 1-5X
▫️Spend NIL accordingly
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Bud Davis retweeted
Jun 3
TAMU could drop 10 recruits and still have the #1 class
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Jun 3
📊2027 Recruiting Class Expected Value
June Update
▫️Top 5: TAMU, OU, TT, Miami, Florida
▫️Best OFF Class: Florida
▫️Best DEF Class: TAMU
▫️Best Trench: TAMU
▫️Best Skill: Miami
▫️Notable: UCLA, VT, Alabama
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29 Mar 2025
I’m struggling to think of analysis I’ve ever done where OT didn’t show out as at least a top most important position to recruit at
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19 Sep 2024
Franklin brings Phil Trautwein home and we check the one of hardest boxes in all of football: OT recruiting
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Jun 2
it keeps getting better
May 7
Been hoping to see UF do this for years
Getting elite HS trench talent is the best way a coach can set themselves up for future success
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Jun 2
Jun 2
BREAKING: Four-Star OT Kennedee Jackson has Committed to Florida, he tells me for @Rivals
The 6’6 301 OT from Lithonia, GA chose the Gators over Georgia and LSU
He’s ranked as the No. 8 OT in the 2027 Rivals300 🐊
on3.com/rivals/kennedee-jack…
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