FAILED BREAKDOWN TRADING: Builder turned ES Futures Trader | Price Action • Levels • Structure | Sharing the process — not advice
Joined April 2023
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May 8
Failed Breakdown Trading:
The strategy itself is simple. The hard part is the human condition.
Impatience. Greed. FOMO. Prediction addiction.
Most traders force trades. FBD trading forces: wait & react.
“Price does this, I do that.”
Change: Prediction to Reaction #ES
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Joshua Thompson retweeted
Jun 12
Its mid day chop now and as warned 1hrs ago, don't trade - hold runner. No chop trading, only trade big expansions in volatility in #ES_F. Last trade given was 9:44AM: The Failed Breakdown of 7377. Targets given were 7390, 7420, 7439, 7458. We hit ~58, dipped.
7474, 7507 next
Jun 12
We got a great long this morning but #ES_F now entering midday chop. We do not trade chop. Only trade big volatility expansions. 7377 trap was long trigger given 9:44AM. We swept it to 7370, recovered. Targets were 7390, 7420, 7439, 7458 (hit exact).
7474 bonus, then 7507
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May 21
Fast moves are exciting.
But markets often move fast into a level…then spend time proving they belong there.
This week has been a reminder:
Velocity gets attention.
Acceptance creates opportunity.
React to price. Don’t marry predictions.
#ES
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May 17
No one knows where the market is heading this week.
Not the permabulls.
Not the doomers.
Not your favorite trading account.
Whether you’re holding a position or sitting clean, the edge remains the same:
React. Don’t predict.
Price reveals intent.
Patience gets paid.
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May 11
Sunday’s open gap down created a low-quality Failed Breakdown.
Low quality? Failure happened too close to prior highs, limiting the upside expansion.
Still rallied 2 levels & produced a solid trade, but with an existing runner already on, the R:R wasn’t attractive enough for me to add size.
Waiting for a deeper breakdown failure before looking for another entry.
#ES_F #ES #TradePlan
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May 11
#ES expanded up. That’s just fine. I’m not in the prediction business & because of my runner I’ve maintained exposure.
Still perfectly positioned to add on a significant Failed Breakdown (fbd). And now, I have information on new confirmed levels to take profit.
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May 11
One underrated edge of holding a runner: Removes pressure.
ES gapped down tonight. Never reached the levels I had already decided I’d become interested again.
No urge to force a trade in an undecided market.
Good positioning improves psychology.
A runner isn’t just about maximizing profit.
It’s about maximizing patience.
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May 4
#ES opened this evening with a gap up and virtually immediately went gap hunting and filled the gap. Like a magnet for the price action.
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May 4
7248 was the level this morning.
Took it twice:
– First trade: clean TP, flat
– Second trade: momentum push → adjusted, trimmed higher, left runner
Same setup. Different execution on speed.
That’s the difference between trading a level and trading the order flow around it.
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Apr 21
This breakdown will fail — they always do at some level.
The mistake is trying to call the bottom.
Let price reclaim, show acceptance… that’s when we press it.
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Apr 21
Reclaim hold above 7154 is where I’d start paying attention.
Until then, it’s just a breakdown doing breakdown things.
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Apr 21
Funny enough I was changing a diaper during the initial move.
Missed the ‘exciting’ part… but it forced me to wait for structure.
Still found a clean, profitable entry once price showed acceptance at the next level.
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Apr 20
Failed breakdown on ES
Break below support → reclaim → push higher
Once price accepts back above, sellers get trapped & forced to cover.
I wait for confirmation, not the bottom
#ES_F #Priceaction
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Joshua Thompson retweeted
Jan 12
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