Joined July 2013
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29 Jul 2024
New piece by me looking at multilevel voting in Wales🏴
- Voter switching between Westminster and the Senedd🔁
- How popular are the parties?
- Seat projections for expanded Senedd
All using new @WalesGovernance Welsh Election Study data
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking…
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7 May 2025
Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats.
🧵 on some of what it can do below:
jaclarner.github.io/senedd_e…
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It also visualises for seats are actually allocated in different constituencies and tells us how tight the margins are.
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Finally it gives us information about coalition possibilities and proportionality of the results. I've written up an explainer here that outlines how it works, what it does and doesn't do, and also plans for improvement
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking…
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Jac Larner retweeted
2 Nov 2024
BRECWAST BRIFFIO: Ymunwch â'r tîm Astudiaeth Etholiad Cymru bore Iau i drafod data a dadansodiaddau newydd o'r etholiad y DU 2024:
BREAKFAST BRIEFING: Join @Jaclarner & @RWynJones on Thursday to discuss new data and analysis from the Wales Election Study:
eventbrite.co.uk/e/event-the…
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Jac Larner retweeted
1 Aug 2024
⚡️NEW WALESCAST OUT NOW⚡️
School's Out for Summer...
@felicityxevans @jamswilliams85 take stock of a momentous period in Cardiff Bay and Westminster with @GarethLewis77 @shelleylphelps @Jaclarner
Enjoy 👇
bbc.in/3SA8j6W
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29 Jul 2024
New piece by me looking at multilevel voting in Wales🏴
- Voter switching between Westminster and the Senedd🔁
- How popular are the parties?
- Seat projections for expanded Senedd
All using new @WalesGovernance Welsh Election Study data
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking…
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29 Jul 2024
Why? Because Labour voters really like Plaid Cymru! Below is a 0-10 'party like' plot by 2024 vote
- Some of these Labour voters are Plaid supporters voting tactically
- We also see multilevel partisanship/party ID: 16% of Labour partisans say they support to Plaid at Welsh level
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29 Jul 2024
Finally, I provide seat projections for expanded Senedd using these numbers
- We don't know final constituency pairings, so I run the model on 1000 possible twining arrangements
- Range of results are plotted below, along with the mean number of seats for each party
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Jac Larner retweeted
25 Jul 2024
✍️ "Perhaps the most intriguing development in Wales was the surge of Reform UK."
🚨NEW: As Welsh Labour gets a new leader, @Jaclarner unpacks the general election result in Wales, exploring the potential cracks in Welsh Labour's foundations.
ukandeu.ac.uk/welsh-labour-a…
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Jac Larner retweeted
25 Jul 2024
New piece from me about Eluned Morgan's election.
While unity and continuity may sound good for Welsh Labour, something different is needed for Wales
theconversation.com/eluned-m…
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23 Jul 2024
Last chance to apply for 12 month position working with us on the Welsh Election Study.
Ideal for someone close to submitting/ has already submitted PhD
8 Jul 2024
📊WGC JOB OPPORTUNITY📊
A new Research Associate post is available with the Welsh Election Study team, working on academic publications and disseminating the WES research findings.
It's a 12-month post within the WGC. More information below!
krb-sjobs.brassring.com/1033…
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5 Jul 2024
Clear trend emerging in Wales:
- Labour vote down across South Wales, but not facing much competition at all
- Plaid up everywhere
- Reform likely will finish second in vote share
- Tory drop off in line with most pessimistic polls
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Jac Larner retweeted
5 Jul 2024
CANLYNIAD: Ynys Môn
Dilynwch ar ein llif byw 👇
bbc.in/3xzKIfr
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5 Jul 2024
Huge changes happening in Scotland, so no-one better to follow than the SES team 👇
5 Jul 2024
Scottish Election Study team working through the night @BBCScotland to pick apart the Scottish results as they come through. Tune-in to hear @ailsa_henderson insights on Scotland's most volatile election since 2015!
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Jac Larner retweeted
5 Jul 2024
That Rayleigh and Wickford swing of 22.4 Con to Lab surpasses the previous highest ever C2L swing of 18.8 (Brent North, 1997)
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4 Jul 2024
Early first look at some of the Pre-election Welsh Election Study Data @WalesGovernance
Here is change in Conservative vote by different demographics in our 2019 pre-election data vs 2024. Not good
Will keep updating this thread through the night
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4 Jul 2024
In Wales, Exit Poll has Tories holding Mont & Monmouthshire, but losing Brecon by big margin.
Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin with healthy margins for Plaid, but Exit polls have historically struggled with predicting Plaid seats
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3 Jul 2024
On last day before voting, see how you compare to the parties on the issues important to you
Check out our vote compass below!
votecompass.uk
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