A recent piece from 24/7 Wall Street discusses a significant decision faced by a 64-year-old single woman with a $1.1 million traditional 401(k) as she considers her bridge to claiming Social Security at age 70. The article effectively highlights various challenges she may encounter.
While the math and bridge concept presented are generally sound, and the awareness of IRMAA is accurate, the article concludes with a checklist of three actionable items for the week. However, this closing is crucial for reasons beyond the author's intention.
The checklist reflects the limitations of the available tools to address the household's actual problem. Each task is isolated, requiring different software, and fails to answer the overarching question posed.
Here are three areas where the article falls short:
- Regulatory regimes operate simultaneously rather than sequentially. The 2026 Roth conversion influences the 2028 IRMAA tier, which in turn affects the 2028 Medicare premium and the 2030 IRMAA tier. Checklists address these in order, but reality requires a simultaneous approach.
- Mortality is personal, not average. The article's break-even age relies on SSA cohort tables. Adjusting the household's longevity perspective by five years can significantly alter the optimal strategy.
- The Required IRR is the critical figure that remains unaddressed. It represents the minimum portfolio return needed for the plan to transition from infeasible to feasible.
For a deeper analysis, including questions to pose to your advisor instead of relying on the checklist, check out the full teardown on Substack.
Read the article:
bit.ly/3PL8cXU